New Poll Shows Majority in Favour of Scottish Independence

JohnScotland

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It is a matter of time before the UK is consigned to history. Might not happen next year but those with loyalty to Britain are dieing off in Scotland. It is just a matter of time. Especially given the majority of Scots voted Yes in 2014 but English living in Scotland swung the vote. What are your thoughts Irishmen/women?
 


pippakin

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The SNP have been droning on about independence for years I wish they would win and find out what independence costs because as Ireland discovered if they think the EU will bail them out they couldn't be more wrong.
 

midlander12

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We have been here before, not least towards the end of the 2014 Indyref campaign. I would not get too excited about this, unless a hard Brexit actually takes place, in which case you're into a completely different ballgame.
 

Dame_Enda

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Its a very narrow majority of 52-48. Campaigns matter a lot especially in referendum campaigns as we know in the Republic. Spain was unhelpful last time by using the Scottish referendum as a proxy battle against Catalan separatists by saying it would take a long time for Scotland to be admitted to the EU after leaving the UK. Its unlikely they will be helpful this time because while they don't agree with Brexit, they have a long standing policy of doing-down separatist movements in other countries e.g. they don't recognise Kosovo.
 

Sync

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We have been here before, not least towards the end of the 2014 Indyref campaign. I would not get too excited about this, unless a hard Brexit actually takes place, in which case you're into a completely different ballgame.
We weren’t. With the exception of a couple of outliers, the polling was comprehensive that Scotland would vote remain.

It’s natural the numbers would close. The Scots were explicitly told that the only way to remain in the EU was to remain with the uk. That’s no longer true. The younger folks who are furious over Brexit will be on for independence as well.

The independence folks had 3 practical problems last time (leaving out the people who just like being I the union).

1. How to stay or accelerate accession to the EU. That problems been answered for them.

2. What currency will they use. Their dumb idea last time is even less feasible now.

3. What will the economy of Scotland look like when it starts overly dependent on the oil market, out of the EU and with its part of uk debt.

2 and 3 still haven’t been dealt with by the snp. Who are really just as ideologically driven as the in their own way.
 

rainmaker

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I have no doubt there is a level of anger in Scotland over a possible no deal exit, and even any form of exit, but I have doubts about the accuracy of online polling.

It was another online outlier poll that predicted a big win for Yes in 2014 (Yougov).

The issue of currency would still be a deal breaker again & there has been some significant Tory gains since both the last indy ref & the Brexit referendum.
 

owedtojoy

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Its a very narrow majority of 52-48. Campaigns matter a lot especially in referendum campaigns as we know in the Republic. Spain was unhelpful last time by using the Scottish referendum as a proxy battle against Catalan separatists by saying it would take a long time for Scotland to be admitted to the EU after leaving the UK. Its unlikely they will be helpful this time because while they don't agree with Brexit, they have a long standing policy of doing-down separatist movements in other countries e.g. they don't recognise Kosovo.
52 - 48 is a thumping majority when it comes to taking the UK out of the EU.

But not for Scottish Independence?

Personally, I think 50%+1 is an insufficient criterion for a major change. Setting a higher threshold (55% or 60%) might make people more careful about what they put into a Constitution in the first place.
 

owedtojoy

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I have no doubt there is a level of anger in Scotland over a possible no deal exit, and even any form of exit, but I have doubts about the accuracy of online polling.

It was another online outlier poll that predicted a big win for Yes in 2014 (Yougov).

The issue of currency would still be a deal breaker again & there has been some significant Tory gains since both the last indy ref & the Brexit referendum.
You are right. Online polls are too easily trolled.
 

Dame_Enda

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52 - 48 is a thumping majority when it comes to taking the UK out of the EU.

But not for Scottish Independence?

Personally, I think 50%+1 is an insufficient criterion for a major change. Setting a higher threshold (55% or 60%) might make people more careful about what they put into a Constitution in the first place.
I am opposed to Brexit. I am not opposed to Scottish independence at all. Just saying we've been here before and we should treat polls with caution after last time. The size of the "no" vote on independence was underestimated by the polls last time (it was closer to 54%).
 

McSlaggart

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I have no doubt there is a level of anger in Scotland over a possible no deal exit, and even any form of exit, but I have doubts about the accuracy of online polling.

It was another online outlier poll that predicted a big win for Yes in 2014 (Yougov).

The issue of currency would still be a deal breaker again & there has been some significant Tory gains since both the last indy ref & the Brexit referendum.

The Scots hate Boris. If Brexit is a mess then a scottish pound may not be a bad idea if linked to say the Euro.
 

rainmaker

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The Scots hate Boris. If Brexit is a mess then a scottish pound may not be a bad idea if linked to say the Euro.
Well, so do a lot of people - he has a majority of one and he wasn't elected by the people. However Boris will not be PM forever.

However the long term process & effects of a new currency, let alone a pegged new currency, are costly and would drag on long after Boris has his feet up in retirement.

It involves such a huge hit to Scotlands economy and spending that it's near impossible to sell - it is the circle that the SNP have been trying to square for years.
 

rainmaker

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You are right. Online polls are too easily trolled.
Indeed, especially by groups that are well organized and have a strong social media presence.

It's genuinely shocking how easy it is, and it explains why a lot of polling these days suddenly seems to be way off.
 

McSlaggart

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Well, so do a lot of people - he has a majority of one and he wasn't elected by the people.

However Boris will not be PM forever, and the long term process and effects of a new currency, let alone a pegged new currency, are costly and would drag on long after Boris has his feet up in retirement.

It involves such a huge hit to Scotlands economy and spending that it's near impossible to sell - it is the circle that the SNP have been trying to square for years.
In the end Scotland could simply take up the Euro.
 

rainmaker

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In the end Scotland could simply take up the Euro.
Except it can't just simply 'take it'.

If it were that easy it would have been Salmond & Sturgeons plan A instead of making promises they could never deliver like sharing sterling.

It also wouldn't be good for, in fact it would be risky to the Euro for obvious reasons.
 

Sync

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In the end Scotland could simply take up the Euro.
They don't want that. Blackford's idea is gibberish (Force the UK to let Scotland keep sterling. Don't go into the Euro).

The SNP voters voted against this idea so the official approach now is "A new currency to be fast-tracked and “ready for introduction as soon as practicable after Independence Day”."
 

McSlaggart

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Except it can't just simply 'take it'.

If it were that easy it would have been Salmond & Sturgeons plan A instead of making promises they could never deliver like sharing sterling.

It also wouldn't be good for, in fact it would be risky to the Euro for obvious reasons.
The Irish pound was linked to the British pound on a one-for-one basis up until the 1970's
 

rainmaker

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The Irish pound was linked to the British pound on a one-for-one basis up until the 1970's
And was far more responsible for the Irish economic situation than any Taoiseach.

It is an appalling situation to be in. It means you have absolutely no say in your interest rates and your interest rates are set by another state, in their own interests.

This affects everything from peoples savingss to government spending & inward investment - all out of a countries control.

You can understand why the SNP found it an impossible sell.
 

McSlaggart

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And was far more responsible for the Irish economic situation than any Taoiseach.

It is an appalling situation to be in. It means you have absolutely no say in your interest rates and your interest rates are set by another state, in their own interests.

This affects everything from peoples savingss to government spending & inward investment - all out of a countries control.

You can understand why the SNP found it an impossible sell.

Why is it much worse than being in the EURO?
 

Sync

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The Irish pound was linked to the British pound on a one-for-one basis up until the 1970's
It was. For very good reasons: Ireland was too economically immature and poorly developed to develop and maintain a currency. So we tied to sterling with all the effects that had (Stability in exchange for putting ourselves in reliance on the UK).

For Scotland though: They need to be able to demonstrate their economic maturity as part of the requirements to join the EU. "The UK does this the hard work for us" isn't workable.
 

rainmaker

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Why is it much worse than being in the EURO?
There are entry criteria and periods to the Euro. It is not simply case of 'tomorrow we start using the Euro folks' - it's a long term process.

The consequences of a new currency seem be the least impossible option to sell, but opting for it is a risky gamble in a referendum - lose a second one & your history.
 


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