Next Election Betting thread

Iarmhi Gael

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Folks - Was wondering if any local Bookies had odds for constituencies up? Looking for a price for Sexton in Longford Westmeath and Labour Seats in Dublin.


Last week the leading high street firms put up Election prices - One stand out price which is well gone now was 12/1 for 33+ Lady TD's in the next Dail? This was cleaned out after the Labour poll last week.

What's the thinking on that one and also any thoughts to where the value might be? I'm actually warming to the 3/1 for a 2012 election at present.
 


sport02

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I doubt you will get odds, until the election is called, and we know all the candidates that are running, it would be a bit futile otherwise.
 

Panopticon

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Women TDs bet:
At the moment we have:
7 FF (with Mary O'Rourke in her 70s)
5 FG (with 2 leaving, Olwyn Enright for sure and Lucinda Creighton probably)
7 Lab (with 2 leaving for sure)
3 other gov (Mary White and Mary Harney, each probably unelectable nowadays, and Beverley Flynn, who deserves to be unelectable, but hey, it's the Wesht)
1 other (Maureen O'Sullivan)

I think we lose 0.5 from FF, 1.5 from FG, 2 from Lab and 2 from others. This is 6 losses from 23, for an expected value of 17. So the bet is 12/1 on there being more than 16 gains by women, minus one for every incumbent woman who loses and who isn't on that list.

Say 32 male TDs lose their seats. 1 in 2 of the winners need to be women. I would buy 20/1 but not 12/1. Have Labour chosen their candidates yet? That would help clarify matters. This is basically a bet on how many women are selected by Labour and Fine Gael, with some volatility thrown in.
 

Iarmhi Gael

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Women TDs bet:
At the moment we have:
7 FF (with Mary O'Rourke in her 70s)
5 FG (with 2 leaving, Olwyn Enright for sure and Lucinda Creighton probably)
7 Lab (with 2 leaving for sure)
3 other gov (Mary White and Mary Harney, each probably unelectable nowadays, and Beverley Flynn, who deserves to be unelectable, but hey, it's the Wesht)
1 other (Maureen O'Sullivan)

I think we lose 0.5 from FF, 1.5 from FG, 2 from Lab and 2 from others. This is 6 losses from 23, for an expected value of 17. So the bet is 12/1 on there being more than 16 gains by women, minus one for every incumbent woman who loses and who isn't on that list.

Say 32 male TDs lose their seats. 1 in 2 of the winners need to be women. I would buy 20/1 but not 12/1. Have Labour chosen their candidates yet? That would help clarify matters. This is basically a bet on how many women are selected by Labour and Fine Gael, with some volatility thrown in.
You probably have more value on the constituency markets when they become available tbh.

Well read. Took 12's and know a few others did as well in the view of the Labour momentum.


What's your view 2012
 

Expose the lot of them

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What's your view 2012
2011 is a strong possibility, if they called an election (or if some of those useless gobs..t FF backbenchers, Independents or least likely of all the Greens got balls and forced the issue) before the end of October it could be done and dusted by the end of November, a new govenment with a mandate would calm the markets. Of course FF and the Greens know that they will be wiped out and are hanging on for as long as possible to line their pockets and up their pensions. Lots of lovely expenses to be claimed between now and the end of 2010. What a loathsome crowd they are.
 

Davidoff

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The market that interests me is next Fine Gael leader.

I reckon Richard Bruton is a false price at 10/11 with Paddy Power. That failed heave diminshed him, and so did the George Lee fiasco earlier in the year.

But more generally, the momentum across the globe is towards younger and younger political leaders.

It's so much easier to sell a message of change and renewal to an electorate if they haven't been looking at your face for 28 years (which is how long RB has been in the Dail).

Obviously the longer Enda hangs on, the more likely that generational change becomes.

Add in the crucial importance of recovering lost ground in Dublin, and I reckon Leo Varadkar at 7/1 and Brian Hayes at 12's are both good value propositions.
 

Craiced

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Folks - Was wondering if any local Bookies had odds for constituencies up?
I ran a book through Betfair for the 2007 election. Betfair did a great job - they listed the main 6 or 7 candidates in each constituency and then had an "others" selection.

Not sure if they will do it again because volumes were quite low for the work involved.

Betfair have a market for next Irish General Election Year
Betfair.com: Online Betting, Sports Betting, Horse Racing, Football | Bet Poker, Casino & Games
I'm offering 3/1 on a 2012 election.

more markets here
Next General Election - Irish Government Betting Odds - Paddy Power
 

Iarmhi Gael

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I ran a book through Betfair for the 2007 election. Betfair did a great job - they listed the main 6 or 7 candidates in each constituency and then had an "others" selection.

Not sure if they will do it again because volumes were quite low for the work involved.

Betfair have a market for next Irish General Election Year
Betfair.com: Online Betting, Sports Betting, Horse Racing, Football | Bet Poker, Casino & Games
I'm offering 3/1 on a 2012 election.

more markets here
Next General Election - Irish Government Betting Odds - Paddy Power
I'm sure they will closer to the time - Very little liquidity on BF if I remember right.

Labrokes, Boyle & PP all released new election pricing for Ireland last week btw
 

Panopticon

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You probably have more value on the constituency markets when they become available tbh.

Well read. Took 12's and know a few others did as well in the view of the Labour momentum.


What's your view 2012
2012 is decent; it is just 15 months away now. I can't see the government falling between now and then without a major event that puts the integrity of senior FF figures in a bad light, which I don't think would have a 25% chance of happening in the next 15 months. If the Greens have not left by now, I don't see what else would make them leave, other than one of those major events. Cowen may well go for competence reasons, but if anything, that would make the government more stable.

Logistically, it just cannot be a 2010 election at this point. You are talking about positive expectancy if there is <75% chance of a 2011 election. I say yes.

-

I think there is serious value in the Paddy Power odds on low seat figures for Labour. You can bet in such a way that you get minimum 2/1 return on any seat total less than 40. Given the amount of uncertainty out there, I think there is a much smaller probability than 67% that Labour get more than 40 seats. This is my value bet. Seriously, you get better odds on <40 seats than on >60 seats - and Labour beat FG in the largest seat tally market - one of the reds has clearly been on Paddy Power lately... Buy into this ASAP.
 
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