Next Election - Dublin Fingal

lff12

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Well oh well...based on the local polls Reilly has no chance of a second fg seat....
He has very little chance in a GE, but a by-election eliminates the other candidate, which might give him a temporary bump. Ironically, think Clifford-Lee has a better shot at next year's GE, depending on who else FF put forward.
 


Degeneration X

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Well oh well...based on the local polls Reilly has no chance of a second fg seat....
There wouldn't be two seats for FG based on the LE results, the question is now whether "Compo" Farrell is so badly damaged by his scandals that it gives Jimbo a chance at taking the solitary FG seat on offer?
 

sic transit

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There wouldn't be two seats for FG based on the LE results, the question is now whether "Compo" Farrell is so badly damaged by his scandals that it gives Jimbo a chance at taking the solitary FG seat on offer?
They were both selected nearly two years ago and you'd imagine they will take one seat. You'd also expect them to do soundings to see if he is a risk but he was at 13% the last time with Reilly on 8%. Daly being absent helps in the sense that her vote, which was personal, will go all over the place.
 

the secretary

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They were both selected nearly two years ago and you'd imagine they will take one seat. You'd also expect them to do soundings to see if he is a risk but he was at 13% the last time with Reilly on 8%. Daly being absent helps in the sense that her vote, which was personal, will go all over the place.
I don't know much about Fingal but I reckon that there won't be much of Daly's vote going to the FFers!
 

drjimryan2

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I disagree......the 07 votes Kennedy got in river valley went then to lenihan and then to daly....
 

sic transit

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I don't know much about Fingal but I reckon that there won't be much of Daly's vote going to the FFers!
I'm not suggesting it would go to either but by splintering it should leave one less strong candidate for a seat, thus benefiting FF/FG and possibly Labour.
 

lff12

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I don't know much about Fingal but I reckon that there won't be much of Daly's vote going to the FFers!
Au contraire, much of her vote comes from "old" FF factions, it will almost certainly go straight back. FF will also scrape back some of their lost SF vote, as they have done pretty much nothing except loudmouth. FF still get about 30% minimum in the Swords area - its the Labour and FG vote there that has collapsed.
 

lff12

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I'm not suggesting it would go to either but by splintering it should leave one less strong candidate for a seat, thus benefiting FF/FG and possibly Labour.
If Labour had a strong local candidate who was ready for GE I would say yes, but their only person there needs another few years - in 3 or 4 years I would see Duncan Smith, Rob O Donoghue or Brian McDonagh as strong Labour contenders, but not just yet.

FG are 5-10 years away from developing the next round of candidates for that area.

Aside from Clifford Lee FF still have Dara Butler, Adrian Henchy and Eoghan O Brien in the bag - Butler would do particular harm to any potential FG candidate in Swords - he literally swept away the FG challenge in both of the last LEs.
 

lff12

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Sorry, i meant FGers
Correct. Except perhaps in newer estates such as Ridgewood, which is very different from the rest of Rivervalley.

They were both selected nearly two years ago and you'd imagine they will take one seat. You'd also expect them to do soundings to see if he is a risk but he was at 13% the last time with Reilly on 8%. Daly being absent helps in the sense that her vote, which was personal, will go all over the place.
Her vote tends to go to anybody even vaguely local. If any of the 3 traditional parties develop a "local" candidate there, they will do well in the longer term - even FG. But Daly in recent years has an anti-establishment appeal that goes far beyond parochial politics, and thats why she got huge votes.
 

Degeneration X

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If Labour had a strong local candidate who was ready for GE I would say yes, but their only person there needs another few years - in 3 or 4 years I would see Duncan Smith, Rob O Donoghue or Brian McDonagh as strong Labour contenders, but not just yet.

FG are 5-10 years away from developing the next round of candidates for that area.

Aside from Clifford Lee FF still have Dara Butler, Adrian Henchy and Eoghan O Brien in the bag - Butler would do particular harm to any potential FG candidate in Swords - he literally swept away the FG challenge in both of the last LEs.
FG are VERY weak in Swords though, no chance of a potential FG candidate coming out of there any time soon.

Would Cllr. Tormey be an outside possibility for FG here though? She's not from the Fingal constituency proper but her LEA does cross into it.
 

the secretary

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FG are VERY weak in Swords though, no chance of a potential FG candidate coming out of there any time soon.

Would Cllr. Tormey be an outside possibility for FG here though? She's not from the Fingal constituency proper but her LEA does cross into it.
It would be great if FG would get no seats but can't see that scenario
 

Frank Castle

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FG are VERY weak in Swords though, no chance of a potential FG candidate coming out of there any time soon.

Would Cllr. Tormey be an outside possibility for FG here though? She's not from the Fingal constituency proper but her LEA does cross into it.
Why not, she is from D11, thou with no real support the howth sutton branch is a bunch of dads army neverbeens and fool as chairman ,
 

Real FG

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Why not, she is from D11, thou with no real support the howth sutton branch is a bunch of dads army neverbeens and fool as chairman ,
The real people in DBN in FG will be getting Cllr Tormey to be added to the ticket, unlike that loser noone she is a vote getter,
 

Frank Castle

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The real people in DBN in FG will be getting Cllr Tormey to be added to the ticket, unlike that loser noone she is a vote getter,
What is your problem with Noone? Is it that she has posters up without the FG Swastika ????
 

lostexpectation

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