Next Election - Dublin Fingal

Hitchcock

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LE %'s (approx):- FF 18%; FG 13%; SF 7%; Lab 17%; Green 10%; Oths 34%.
Byelection:- FF 18%; FG 15%; SF 5%; Lab 15%; Green 23%; Inds4Change 10%.

Seems to me the most likely result here is 1-all between FF, FG, Lab, the Greens and Dean Mulligan from Clare Daly's I4C outfit.

Duncan Smith looks likely to retain Brendan Ryan's Lab seat. The lingering doubt is whether FG will retain their seat given Alan Farrell's obvious drawbacks, and whether SF could hold on in a GE with an incumbent TD in the race. There will be some transfers from the SD's who got 4% in the byelection, and also probably a Green surplus. You would expect these to favour Lab and Mulligan over SF, but you never know.

FF 1 FG 1 Lab 1 Green 1 Oths 1 (I4C)
I'd love to see Dean M win but I think it's a little too early for him. FF and FG to win one each, Smith should take Ryans seat and the Greens will retain the seat from the by-election and I think O'Reill will do enough though she is vulnerable, SF had a terrible local election here.
 


Hitchcock

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Dean Mulligan isn't an Independent, he is member of a registered political party Indepedents 4 change https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/members/partyRegister/2019/2019-12-02_register-of-political-parties-29-november-2019_en.pdf

INDEPENDENTS 4 CHANGE
(Dean Mulligan
You do persist with this this don't you! I4C is registered for Dail purposes just like Sol/PBPA - they are NOT political parties, they are not trying to build parties, they don't have party structures etc.
 

Frank Castle

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If the people of Fingal vote Alan Farrell in again, they are either stupid or insane and deserve everything they get
 

Buchaill Dana

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Gemmeroids is giving the people of Fingal another opportunity to laugh at her
 

sic transit

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If the people of Fingal vote Alan Farrell in again, they are either stupid or insane and deserve everything they get
There's a FG quota there so they probably will. It's him or ....
 

Buchaill Dana

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If the people of Fingal vote Alan Farrell in again, they are either stupid or insane and deserve everything they get
Unfortunately there is an FG seat in Skerries/Malahide/Portmarnock and the other candidate is unelectable...
 

lff12

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Darragh O'Brien topped the poll for them in 2016.

They also got the most vote in the constituency in 2016.
Fingal WAS FF country back in the 80/90s. Towns voted FF and country voted FG. Most of the FG vote still comes from semi rural areas. But times have changed.

O'Brien (FF) is likely to top the poll but will have a battle with O Briend (Green) for it - but looking at Clifford-Lee's leaflets not much effort has gone into rethinking her campaign for 2nd seat.
Smith will easily take Ryan's seat - in the by election his presence in Swords cut Mulligan's vote. He went from having literally no votes in Rivervalley in the locals to polling strongly. This will probably open it up for SF to keep their seat as they'll get a big bump from PBP-SOL's meltdown.
The 14.8% FG got in the BE was good for the area - but it will be the current incumbent.
 

lff12

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Dean Mulligan....has to be a swords td, I reckon....unless Butler runs as an Independent....
Unlikely as Duncan Smith is in Swords - and ate heavily into Mulligan's vote in the BE.
Smith very much liked. Mulligan is a worker but Smith is infinitely smarter.
 

drjimryan2

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So...with that result have we seen the back of Dr. Reilly?

And will sense now prevail and give Darragh Butler a chance....
 
Last edited:

Orbit v2

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So...with that result have we seen the back of Dr. Reilly?
Yes, he says he is throwing in the towel. I can't understand the antipathy towards O'Reilly among FG voters particularly. Obviously, being a former health minister is an albatross round any TD's neck, but Farrell is a non entity with his own past.
 


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