Next General Election in Laois-Offaly

apkavanagh

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With the council elections in Laois and Offaly now behind us, how do the parties stand in this constituency. In 2007 Fianna Fail won three seats with ease and were probably closer to winning a fourth than they were to losing a seat. Fine Gael regained their seat, helped largely by the implosion in the Parlon vote. With a chunk of south-west Offaly now moved into Tipperary North, could this have a bearing on the result? Will the local election results have any impact on the next general election, or will it just be more of the same?
 


Gruffalo

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I think SF will give a good show of themselves, they are getting very popular in the constituency. They wont take a seat but will see improvement.
 

Baron von Biffo

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With a chunk of south-west Offaly now moved into Tipperary North, could this have a bearing on the result? Will the local election results have any impact on the next general election, or will it just be more of the same?
Bye bye Olwyn probably, but who'll get the seat?

Will FG run a credible North Offaly candidate?

Will Moloney lose out to the Kerry Joke?

Will Labour drop in a parachute?

Questions, questions.
 
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Fianna Fáil will run the same four candidates with John Foley possibly replacing one of the two Laois deputies. Fine Gael will run 3, their two incumbents and another, possibly Liam Quinn from Edenderry for Geographic reasons. I think people are talking up Sinn Féin looking at their local elections result they are only on around 6-7% in the whole constituency, far from taking a seat the same with Labour who will again fail to make an impact.

So it'll probably be 3 FF, 2 FG - Same party representation but a change in personnel.
 

Trans-Siberian

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With the council elections in Laois and Offaly now behind us, how do the parties stand in this constituency. In 2007 Fianna Fail won three seats with ease and were probably closer to winning a fourth than they were to losing a seat. Fine Gael regained their seat, helped largely by the implosion in the Parlon vote. With a chunk of south-west Offaly now moved into Tipperary North, could this have a bearing on the result? Will the local election results have any impact on the next general election, or will it just be more of the same?
At the outset, I would like to say that i would support SF in any possible GE.
I also belive that SF in Laois/Offaly have a great chance of taking a Dail seat in the coming years.Question is will the next GE be to soon for them.
They have done well in the locals with their increased vote and If the GE was to be held late next year or beyond I think they would put in a very strong showing.

Labour polled poorly at the locals and not electing a councillor in Laois will help SF chances.

If properly marketed and if a clever and well funded campaign was ran I think Brian Stanley would be a serious contender for a seat. But its all about the timing.

FG might have ambitions for a third seat.Possibly a Laois based candidate.Stanley running would hinder this as he has the proven ability to attract votes that normally would not go SF way.There is much to play for and SF in a five seater could not be ruled out.
 
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At the outset, I would like to say that i would support SF in any possible GE.
I also belive that SF in Laois/Offaly have a great chance of taking a Dail seat in the coming years.Question is will the next GE be to soon for them.
They have done well in the locals with their increased vote and If the GE was to be held late next year or beyond I think they would put in a very strong showing.

Labour polled poorly at the locals and not electing a councillor in Laois will help SF chances.

If properly marketed and if a clever and well funded campaign was ran I think Brian Stanley would be a serious contender for a seat. But its all about the timing.

FG might have ambitions for a third seat.Possibly a Laois based candidate.Stanley running would hinder this as he has the proven ability to attract votes that normally would not go SF way.There is much to play for and SF in a five seater could not be ruled out.
People said the same about SF this time years ago about taking seats in places like Wexford, Waterford, Cork North Central, Dublin North East, Dublin North West, Dublin Central and Sligo Leitrim, that was after the 2004 Local's and look what happened in 2007.
 

Trans-Siberian

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Fianna Fáil will run the same four candidates with John Foley possibly replacing one of the two Laois deputies. Fine Gael will run 3, their two incumbents and another, possibly Liam Quinn from Edenderry for Geographic reasons. I think people are talking up Sinn Féin looking at their local elections result they are only on around 6-7% in the whole constituency, far from taking a seat the same with Labour who will again fail to make an impact.

So it'll probably be 3 FF, 2 FG - Same party representation but a change in personnel.
I admit that 3 ff, 2 fg looks likely at this stage but its all about the timing of the election.
SF are not organisationaly strong enough at this stage but growing pretty quickly.
With labours poor organistion in the 2 counties, SF have much to play for in the next couple of years.
 

Trans-Siberian

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People said the same about SF this time years ago about taking seats in places like Wexford, Waterford, Cork North Central, Dublin North East, Dublin North West, Dublin Central and Sligo Leitrim, that was after the 2004 Local's and look what happened in 2007.
They got carried away with some of those predictions. I can tell you SF in laois is very grounded in reality and knows full well what it will take to win a Dail seat.IMO, its only a matter of time but i do believe the next GE is to soon.

Several more county councillors in five years time will be the spring board they need.
 
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They got carried away with some of those predictions. I can tell you SF in laois is very grounded in reality and knows full well what it will take to win a Dail seat.IMO, its only a matter of time but i do believe the next GE is to soon.

Several more county councillors in five years time will be the spring board they need.
Maybe not at the next election but maybe in 2017 or whenever it is but if Cowen goes as Taoiseach after the next election he'll just be a backbencher and may retire for 2017 leaving an absolutley huge pool of votes to be played for and not all of his vote will remain with FF, In my opinion.
 

Trans-Siberian

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He is no more labout than the man on the moon.He would run for the taliban if it suited him.There is no labour structure around him and that vote he got was not a labour vote.It was very much personal vote.
Also he has himself said that he would not contest for laobour in a GE.

Labour really needed Jim O brien to take a seat in the locals for their growth in Laois anyway.
 

Baron von Biffo

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He is no more labout than the man on the moon.He would run for the taliban if it suited him.There is no labour structure around him and that vote he got was not a labour vote.It was very much personal vote.
Also he has himself said that he would not contest for laobour in a GE.

Labour really needed Jim O brien to take a seat in the locals for their growth in Laois anyway.
None the less He is a Labour councillor.

Your point about Jim O'Brien is spot on. Had he made it onto the council he would have had a fair shot in the GE.

I've heard rumours that Sean O'Brien in Tullamore is trying for the Lab nod again but even if he got it he wouldn't be a serious contender for a seat.
 

apkavanagh

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Sinn Fein may not seriously push for a Dail seat in 2012 (although I think Brian Stanley will do well - he should be pushing for 5,000+ votes this time - and could benefit if Fianna Fail and Fine Gael opt for 'more of the same' in terms of their candidate choices), but they are in a far better position organisationally than Labour are, especially in the wake of Labour's very poor performances in Portlaoise and Tullamore - Jim O'Brien's inabilty to win a seat in Portlaoise in the wake of a well financed campaign would appear to mark the end of his electoral ambitions, especially as he failed to make it onto the Town Council as well. Sinn Fein ran a more clever strategy this time in contesting more electoral areas (including all of the Laois electoral areas) where they managed to attract soem decent results (if not extra county council seats) in Emo and Borris in Ossory, and if Stanley can build on this then he could be pushing to make it into the final count.
 

FutureTaoiseach

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Based on the Tribune study on the locals, no change i.e. FF 3, FG 2, but with an outside chance of an Indo getting in if they can rally around one candidate, which looks unlikely.
 

apkavanagh

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There isn't really a strong tradition of Independent candidates doing well in general elections in Laois-Offaly in recent decades FT, and there doesn't seem to be an independent councillor in either Laois or Offaly who is capable of winning sufficient votes outside of their own local electoral areas in order to seriously challenge for a seat in my opinion.
 

apkavanagh

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I think we can take it for granted that FF will run 4 candidates and that these will probably be the same candidates as those who ran in 2007. But what will FG do? With the loss of some of Olwyn Enright's territory (although the affected areas were more Parlonite and Cowen areas than Enright areas in 2007) the party is unlikely to put her seat at risk by running a Tullamore candidate alongside her, though (as was suggested) an Edenderry or Portarlington-based candidate might make sense given the party's dire performances in the NE Laois and Offaly region in past general election contests. Tom Mulhall, who topped the poll in Emo in the local elections, looks perhaps the most likely contender given that (i) the party will win more votes in Laois in 2012 than in Offaly, meaning that it would make more sense to run a third candidate from Laois, (ii) though not from Portarlington town, Mulhall would be based in the greater Portarlington area. But the question would then arise: could Mulhall make any electoral impact in the Edenderry area, at least to the extent that Foley isn't winning 5,000+ votes from the Edenderry electoral area alone as happened in 2007.
 

topcat4

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Brian Satnley is a Good SF candidate but only based around Portlaoise.
 

Panopticon

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The Tribune analysis is silly - Laois and Offaly have elected lots of independent councillors in the past without electing independent TDs, and this year saw Ind FFs in Offaly and Ind PDs in Laois and Offaly.

The constituency personnel is unstable, even if the partisan affiliations aren't necessarily going to change. Three TDs are from Laois and only two are from Offaly, which doesn't agree with population.* Two of those Laois TDs are from Fianna Fáil. In the local elections the overall FF vote in the constituency "migrated" - a decline in Laois matched by an increase in Offaly. Lots more Laois votes will go to Brian Stanley next time and Sinn Féin candidates tend not to transfer outside the party in large numbers. Everything above adds up to a very high chance that one of Sean Fleming or John Moloney will lose his seat. Fleming had a lower vote in 2007 but nobody cares about John Moloney's junior ministry. The man who enjoyed the most support last time from Portlaoise should be the most worried.

Again, going by local election results, whoever becomes the second Offaly candidate should enjoy a higher first preference vote than last time or plenty of transfers from the Taoiseach. The loss of territory complicates this, but I think that area is Enright's base anyway. If the election were today, I suspect the numbers would stay the same and the only change would be Fleming or possibly Moloney to be replaced by Offaly FF 2.

* (though strangely Parlon won and lost with the fluctuating opinions of farmers in Laois about Parlon v Flanagan, so this isn't Gospel)
 

meriwether2

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No Change here. If FF only got two seats here - this would point to a complete implosion nationally, with them ending up with about two seats altogether nationally.
 


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