But has SF formally declared for the ABFF club?Sinn Féin will not prop up a failed FF. It just wont happen. Sinn Féin are political realists regardless of the anti-republican rubbish posted here. We would not have managed to have survived if we had not seen the writing on the wall. Sinn Féin are as credible a party as any of the other bunch north or south of the border.
Forgive me for pressing the point Tiernanator but I'm recalling the months and months when every time Gilmore got within 50 yards of a journalist the only thing they asked him was about ABFF. In the interests of balance and clarity we ought to get an official pronouncement from SF on this.FF are toxic at the moment. Sinn Féin have been working hard to become a credible opposition to the government. I think largely we have achieved that regardless of anti-republican bile on P.ie. Sinn Féin will not have any truck with a coalition with FF. We have learned the lesson of contamination which sadly the Greens dont appear to have learned. I predict that there would be mass resignation from the party if the leadership tried to join a FF coalition. So von Biffo I think its a safe bet. No collaboration in a failed FF government.
You have got to be kidding. To win 60 seats FF would have to be at at least (given their current transfer toxicity) 35% of the vote. Three days ago they were at 17%.The announcement that Gerry Adams is to seek a seat in Louth at the GE prompts the obvious question, why? The equally obvious (to me at any rate) answer is that SF see a strong possibility of being in government with FF.
With Lab bought into the ABFF thing there's a niche for SF to pick up FF transfers and traditional FF voters who want to slap their party but not vote FG into office. Anti FG elements in Lab might also transfer/swap to SF. My feeling is that, despite the poll numbers, FF will still return with 60+ seats.
Actually, with FG at 33% in the polls, it can be excluded. You're suggesting that FG will gain about 120,000 first-preference votes, and LOSE seats. Right.The possibility of Kenny managing to lose a few seats can't be entirely excluded
You're really clutching at straws now, aren't you.and if the gale is only a gust FG/Lab might not have the numbers.
So why is there ZERO sign of that in all the opinion polls? I see FG up solidly on 2007, Labour up substantially on 2007, and SF up on 2007. The only parties DOWN on 2007 in polls are FF and the Greens. That's not a "plague on all your houses", no matter how much you want it to be. Its a wish by the voters to get FF out.If the electorate is in a 'plague on all your houses' mood we could have a big crop of independents and traditionally FF have nurtured them better.
So you're suggesting SF will double their seats, FF will only lose about 15 seats, while Labour and FG will gain nearly 500,000 extra votes but less than a dozen extra seats.SF in the low to mid teens could just about make Adams Tanaiste.
FG spent most of the 1989-92 period polling lower than they had scored in the 1989 election. They duly polled lower in the 1992 election, and thus lost seats. This time round, they've consistently polled HIGHER than they did in the 2007 election. Most people can see the difference, but clearly you don't want to.Always happy to dispel the gloom.
My musings are not so outlandish as you seem to think. Incumbency, personality and geography will keep FF above what polls indicate. The last time we had an ABFF mood was 92 and back then FG managed to lose more seats and from a smaller base than FF did in that GE.
So why are FG and Labour both polling so high? A vast conspiracy among SF-leaning disgruntled FGers to fool the pollsters? I gotta say, this thread gets funnier by the minute.The disgruntled vote in the past went to the PDs and then the Greens so there's no reason to think SF can't pick up a chunk of it with those parties now dead.
Naturally I cannot speak for the leadership but remember that SF hate the Dev-ite FF party more than the blueshirts. To be honest up here in the northwest I prefer FG people and trust them about a zillion times more than the local FF hacks. SF wont prop up a minority FF government and they arent going to get anywhere near the number of seats that Bertie got last time around.Forgive me for pressing the point Tiernanator but I'm recalling the months and months when every time Gilmore got within 50 yards of a journalist the only thing they asked him was about ABFF. In the interests of balance and clarity we ought to get an official pronouncement from SF on this.
Between who and who?I do believe that SF have a very strong chance of holding the balance of power in the next election.
Really, when in SF's past history has that happened before?If their past history in this areana is anything to go by, voters will flock to SF to lodge a 'protest vote' against the incumbent government.
The funny thing is I imagine Sinn Féin will be treated like outcasts by whatever government formed, even the Unionists like them better than the parties in the South.I do believe that SF have a very strong chance of holding the balance of power in the next election. If their past history in this areana is anything to go by, voters will flock to SF to lodge a 'protest vote' against the incumbent government.