Next volatility hurdle: Austria and Italy on December 4th/5th.

Lumpy Talbot

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Hardly noticed in all the hoo-hah over the Trumpian aftershocks is the fact that we have two volatility points approaching and pretty much in the same time frame in Europe.

The re-run of Austria's presidential election and the referendum in Italy on constitutional reforms which the Italian leader Renzi seems to have pinned to the mast of his career will be held simultaneously.

It could be the case that Renzi in Italy may be forced to resign should his constitutional reforms not pass in Italy in the December referendum- this would open the door to an election from which the Five Star movement which is significantly eurosceptic could benefit.

In Austria the extremely narrow presidential election which courts there over-turned and instructed had to be re-run are also on the same day as the Italian referendum. There too there is the distinct possibility of a result which could send Juncker to the nearest drinks cabinet.

While all the focus has been on Brexit and perfidious Albion and then Trump in ridiculous Brobdinagium the one thing we know we can't count on these days are the polling companies.

Would a combination of Renzi's government falling in Italy and potentially a eurosceptic presidency taking shape in Austria offer a further knock to the Euro, the European Projekt or will the passing of Renzi's constitutional reforms and a pro-European presidency in Austria reassure the European Projekt enough to sit up in its bed and reach for the restoring chicken soup?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/12/austria-presidential-election-rerun-to-be-postponed-faulty-glue-ballot-papers

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/11/italian-referendum-a-bigger-risk-than-donald-trump-analysts-warn.html

My own take on it now that we live in a period where the markets inform politics rather than the other way around is that some hedgefunders will enjoy the tremors on the Vix Index and some will lose money on the gamble around results- but this may be one of the few occasions where the reverberations are more likely to be felt in political spheres rather than the gamblers playground of the world markets.
 
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Ruadh

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Renzi is I gather in trouble. It seems his reforms are as much about Matteo Renzi as it is about Italy.
 

Spanner Island

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An Age of Hate seems to have arrived... but it will pass... because everything does.

Austria/Italy... the EU is in big trouble and has been for the guts of a decade now. Two more negative results will obviously be further blows to it.

When you see Tusk come out and say that things have to change and that the EU has to listen you think perhaps there's some chance for it.

When you see gobsh!tes like Juncker come out and say Europe will need to educate Trump about what Europe is and how it works... well... you think f*** off EU...

If the EU doesn't get to grips with itself and feckin' well bring an end to the ever closer union bullsh!t then it will collapse... and it will be the fault of Europhiles whether they accept it or not.

France, Germany and the Netherlands will be in the mix soon enough too...
 

Lumpy Talbot

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I have been saying for some time on the Brexit related threads that the debate is too much about perfidious Albion and its rejection of the European federal project idea. That we run the risk of ignoring similar ignored constituencies lashing out and that is a very real risk now in Italy in particular.

I have also pointed put that no-one was considering what would happen if the British referendum result gained some traction elsewhere as a possibility in political Europe.

It is not just in Britain that the political establishment has failed to bring a large section of its constituency by persuasion to aims accepted among the political elite of Europe but elsewhere too I feel that there are large and dangerous constituencies left behind and not catered to in debate around the European project and that this could come back and bite Brussels, Berlin and Paris on the proverbial arse.

The Italian referendum and the Austrian presidential election re-run on the 4th to me contain the possibility of Brexitian aftershocks which may well be an emanation of that ignoral of the concerns of 'White Van Man' as it has been portrayed in the UK.
 

gerhard dengler

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It was a member of the Bundesbank who said "If the € is to die, it won't die in Athens, Rome will be where € dies"

Italy is economically farked.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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I was reading recently that the Mayor of Rome is a Five Star movement member. I did like her sensible withdrawal of Rome's application to host the Olympics in 2024. From what I recall she pointed out the truth about these ridiculous travelling caravans of marketing opportunities for corporations paid for by city taxpayers.

I paraphrase her comments when she pointed out that Rome still is not free of the bills from the last time the city hosted the Olympics.

Seems a very sensible piece of household economics to me. And I think the world is getting tired of these fake benefits touted for these largescale corporate marketing events which are always sold as hugely profitable for the cities taking part but which in fact have a cannibalistic economic effect at best.

Good that the Mayor there is not falling for that usual tomfoolery about the games only costing x and bringing in Y. X always being deliberately lowered in the publicity and Y being hugely inflated.
 

GDPR

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I have been saying for some time on the Brexit related threads that the debate is too much about perfidious Albion and its rejection of the European federal project idea. That we run the risk of ignoring similar ignored constituencies lashing out and that is a very real risk now in Italy in particular.

I have also pointed put that no-one was considering what would happen if the British referendum result gained some traction elsewhere as a possibility in political Europe.

It is not just in Britain that the political establishment has failed to bring a large section of its constituency by persuasion to aims accepted among the political elite of Europe but elsewhere too I feel that there are large and dangerous constituencies left behind and not catered to in debate around the European project and that this could come back and bite Brussels, Berlin and Paris on the proverbial arse.

The Italian referendum and the Austrian presidential election re-run on the 4th to me contain the possibility of Brexitian aftershocks which may well be an emanation of that ignoral of the concerns of 'White Van Man' as it has been portrayed in the UK.

Yes but thats Pie

A hilarious dollysorts of rightwing mentalists and the sort of dim lace-curtain Irish who just want to be seen as proper bourgeois, generations under the belt, and not up by the bootstraps exam passers.

I am continually amazed by the total confusion both sides show about anything real. Or their practical ignorance.

People have been saying for years the Euro Project has huge internal and external challenges and no way of dealing with them, except thumb in the bum and mind in neutral.

its a bit late now to start laying them out for the Piesters :D
 

Lumpy Talbot

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Questioning the Europe project does bring out an amazing amount of green jumper wearers convinced that blue is the new green.

I always thought, perhaps naively, that to question political assumptions was a good thing in that it strengthened politics and ideas.

We do seem to be in an age where to question widely held assumptions is regarded as somewhat verboten. That is not a good idea as David Cameron, Merkel, much of Europe's murky political wagon-train and perhaps Mr Renzi may find out.

Ignore real concerns at political ground zero and you create a constituency for someone else. That basic truth about politics has been ignored as much as questions about the adoption of a European Projekt without debate have been dismissed.

In politics as in life one tends to reap what one sows.
 

Ruadh

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I have been saying for some time on the Brexit related threads that the debate is too much about perfidious Albion and its rejection of the European federal project idea. That we run the risk of ignoring similar ignored constituencies lashing out and that is a very real risk now in Italy in particular.

I have also pointed put that no-one was considering what would happen if the British referendum result gained some traction elsewhere as a possibility in political Europe.

It is not just in Britain that the political establishment has failed to bring a large section of its constituency by persuasion to aims accepted among the political elite of Europe but elsewhere too I feel that there are large and dangerous constituencies left behind and not catered to in debate around the European project and that this could come back and bite Brussels, Berlin and Paris on the proverbial arse.

The Italian referendum and the Austrian presidential election re-run on the 4th to me contain the possibility of Brexitian aftershocks which may well be an emanation of that ignoral of the concerns of 'White Van Man' as it has been portrayed in the UK.
White van man used be called the working class but that's a dirty concept these days and wasn't favoured under the hegemony of neo liberal thought. Remember the prevailing ideas are those of the prevailing power.

Brexit is in a different world post Trump. He said NATO needs to pay it's own way so now the Germans have to start spending money in defence In a big way alongside all other EU States. Europe will need to rely on itself first and foremost. It has 2 nuclear Powers both of whom are actually accustomed to deploying soldiers in circumstances dubious and otherwise. If the EU wants to have a serious military capacity then it needs the British tying in with its strategies otherwise it is militarily impotent.

Germany is now relying on French and British nukes or else it's gambling that Trump doesn't mean it really. Not a place to be. So the British are needed even if it sickens the men and women who believe the EU is God's gift to the world.
 

Spanner Island

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I have been saying for some time on the Brexit related threads that the debate is too much about perfidious Albion and its rejection of the European federal project idea. That we run the risk of ignoring similar ignored constituencies lashing out and that is a very real risk now in Italy in particular.

I have also pointed put that no-one was considering what would happen if the British referendum result gained some traction elsewhere as a possibility in political Europe.

It is not just in Britain that the political establishment has failed to bring a large section of its constituency by persuasion to aims accepted among the political elite of Europe but elsewhere too I feel that there are large and dangerous constituencies left behind and not catered to in debate around the European project and that this could come back and bite Brussels, Berlin and Paris on the proverbial arse.

The Italian referendum and the Austrian presidential election re-run on the 4th to me contain the possibility of Brexitian aftershocks which may well be an emanation of that ignoral of the concerns of 'White Van Man' as it has been portrayed in the UK.
Ireland started all this by sending Dustin to Eurovision.
 

GDPR

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Questioning the Europe project does bring out an amazing amount of green jumper wearers convinced that blue is the new green.

I always thought, perhaps naively, that to question political assumptions was a good thing in that it strengthened politics and ideas.

We do seem to be in an age where to question widely held assumptions is regarded as somewhat verboten. That is not a good idea as David Cameron, Merkel, much of Europe's murky political wagon-train and perhaps Mr Renzi may find out.

Ignore real concerns at political ground zero and you create a constituency for someone else. That basic truth about politics has been ignored as much as questions about the adoption of a European Projekt without debate have been dismissed.

In politics as in life one tends to reap what one sows.

Two points

(1) Sheer ignorance. There are exceptions here, but most posters dont really understand how anything works at all. They have dim apprehensions about things and the rest is just emotional confusion and what makes me feel bad, not like.

(2) Dont underestimate the shills. They are among you, spinning like crazy.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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Much of the hysteria I have seen on p.ie down the years can be categorised under the Ancient Hibernian battle-cry 'Let no new thing arise'.

It is an intrinsic thing in a basically conservative society to demonstrate violently for the status quo.

I'm sure there was probably as much disquiet around our original application for entry to the Common Market. A new thing had arisen and we must fear it.

Now of course the status quo is the European Projekt because time has passed and its progress has been stately enough not to disturb us except for the suspicious looking notes in our wallets.

Stately plump Buck Mulligan in a pause at the top of the stairs.
 

Gurdiev77

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Two points

(1) Sheer ignorance. There are exceptions here, but most posters dont really understand how anything works at all. They have dim apprehensions about things and the rest is just emotional confusion and what makes me feel bad, not like.

(2) Dont underestimate the shills. They are among you, spinning like crazy.
dont you have somewhere more intelectually challenging to go ?
 

Morgellons

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I don't know. I'd consider 1-0 against Austria away as a good result.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
dont you have somewhere more intelectually challenging to go ?
Sure you know Ireland. Sometimes it is so intellectually challenging that one has to leave it to be able to get a good look at the size of it.
 

GDPR

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Much of the hysteria I have seen on p.ie down the years can be categorised under the Ancient Hibernian battle-cry 'Let no new thing arise'.

It is an intrinsic thing in a basically conservative society to demonstrate violently for the status quo.

I'm sure there was probably as much disquiet around our original application for entry to the Common Market. A new thing had arisen and we must fear it.

Now of course the status quo is the European Projekt because time has passed and its progress has been stately enough not to disturb us except for the suspicious looking notes in our wallets.

Stately plump Buck Mulligan in a pause at the top of the stairs.

You will find plenty just as hysterical in support of their imagined new thing, which is the old thing that never existed but they think it did.

Its not conservatism per se. its very simple. Most of what happens up close or out there isnt real to the average Irish person. Even things which are very real indeed, and they know to be real.

its a psychological defence mechanism learned over centuries. I liken it to the children of alcoholic parents.

Now back to the onions. The banks wont hold and the people wont hold.

We are living in the middle of a great shift.
 

Hibee

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Yes but thats Pie

A hilarious dollysorts of rightwing mentalists and the sort of dim lace-curtain Irish who just want to be seen as proper bourgeois, generations under the belt, and not up by the bootstraps exam passers.

I am continually amazed by the total confusion both sides show about anything real. Or their practical ignorance.

People have been saying for years the Euro Project has huge internal and external challenges and no way of dealing with them, except thumb in the bum and mind in neutral.

its a bit late now to start laying them out for the Piesters :D
The EU is ************************************ and particularly EURO is ************************************ because basic economic theory is being utterly ignored . Nothing to do with any sort of a wing to be frank .
 

Lumpy Talbot

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There are strange bedfellows in this one. On the one hand in Ireland you would have the most socially conservative strand in the population the farmers and on the other those who consider themselves the most liberal in terms of change the metropolitan elite in pulling on the turquoise jersey. The former because any threat to the EU subsidy is a threat to their way of life and the latter because it is perceived to be more fashionable to be European rather than Irish.
 

GDPR

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The EU is ************************************ and particularly EURO is ************************************ because basic economic theory is being utterly ignored . Nothing to do with any sort of a wing to be frank .

What did I say about the Irish being at odds
with reality....
 

Lumpy Talbot

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On the subject of Europe I think quite a number of policymakers have been guilty of attempting to live in a fantasy.

It is almost as if they were persuaded by attendance at the same school that they were duty bound to build a Utopia.

A bit like Peter the Great and his St Petersburg. Built on a swamp he just kept obstinately building while the swamp kept swallowing the foundations. He was building a new capital. They found the bottom of the swamp and built a rather lovely city. But even though Peter demanded that the nobles and what middle class they had move to the new capital city the capital of Russia has always resolutely remained Moscow.

Still is.
 


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