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NI Assembly and Local Goverment Elections Set for May 5th


picador

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The next Stormont election will take place on May 5th 2011. Elections to the 26 local councils will take place the same day, the first since 2005.

There could also be a third vote - a UK-wide referendum on the introduction of the Alternative Vote system for the Westminister elections.

UTV News - Council and Assembly polls on 5 May

So aside from the usual sectarian head-count what are the issues?
 
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factual

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The next Stormont election will take place on May 5th 2011. Elections to the 26 local councils will take place the same day, the first since 2005.

There could also be a third vote - a UK-wide referendum on the introduction of the Alternative Vote system for the Westminister elections.

UTV News - Council and Assembly polls on 5 May

So aside from the usual sectarian head-count what are the issues?

For Sinn Féin, the equality agenda will be key: better public services, the redistribution of wealth from rich to poor, and better investment in jobs for the least well off in society.
 

Éamonn an Chnoic

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Reform of the asembly will surely be a priority issue? Reducing the number of representatives/contituencies? I'd say, whether or not Mr McGuinness or Mr Robinson is the first minister will be the main media focus for the next 9 months 11 days.
 

Scipio

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For Sinn Féin, the equality agenda will be key: better public services, the redistribution of wealth from rich to poor, and better investment in jobs for the least well off in society.
How do you plan to pay for all this?

By going to the British taxpayer cap in hand?

Furthermore this idea of redistribution of wealth is one which needs to be explored deeper. How do you propose to do this? By raising taxes on the "rich" in the middle of a recession?

Given NI's severe reliance on the public sector, surely cuts will have to be made, how does this square with the better public services mantra?
 

Northern Voice

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The main issue will still be the economy, in my eyes. There needs to be a genuine push for the scaling back of the public sector and the developing of a wider private sector. Investment has to be sought for the creation of further jobs in Northern Ireland. On the election itself, I have a feeling Elliot will cut a deal with the UUP to ensure the return of a unionist first minister.
 

Just Jack

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I think the TUV could surprise some people.

They performed poorly at Westminster yes, but the Assembly elections are a totally different ball game.

Jim Allister will almost certainly obtain enough votes personally to be elected to Stormont.

I also, do not think SF will take the FM post.
 

Scipio

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I think the TUV could surprise some people.

They performed poorly at Westminster yes, but the Assembly elections are a totally different ball game.

Jim Allister will almost certainly obtain enough votes personally to be elected to Stormont.

I also, do not think SF will take the FM post.
I don't know, the UUP have reaffirmed their conservative slant as of late so the Unionist electorate basically has a choice between bible thumpers, extreme bible thumpers, and nuts.

The safest prediction is perhaps a low turnout.
 

Just Jack

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I don't know, the UUP have reaffirmed their conservative slant as of late so the Unionist electorate basically has a choice between bible thumpers, extreme bible thumpers, and nuts.

The safest prediction is perhaps a low turnout.
The three way spilt could play nicely into SF’s hands.

However, I think the Unionist parties will probably unite in some constituencies, using the bogeyman of a SF first minister to duress the Unionist community into voting for an agreed set of candidates.
 

Scipio

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The three way spilt could play nicely into SF’s hands.

However, I think the Unionist parties will probably unite in some constituencies, using the bogeyman of a SF first minister to duress the Unionist community into voting for an agreed set of candidates.
I would agree with that. I personally can't see an SF First Minister being a viable prospect. Most Unionists are nowhere near ready for it.
 

Just Jack

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I would agree with that. I personally can't see an SF First Minister being a viable prospect. Most Unionists are nowhere near ready for it.
I think any protest to a democratically elected Sinn Fein FM would be a disastrous own goal for the Unionist community.

Jim Allister has before stated; any Nationalist or Republican FM is unacceptable because Unionism is the largest tradition in NI and as such should always hold the FM position irrespective of the democratic vote.

Coming from a Unionist tradition myself, I would suggest this particular mindset probably resonates best with the fundamental traditionalists, of which there are many.

This is why I suspect the TUV and Jim Allister may cause an upset at this upcoming election.
 

TrueBlue84

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TUV at most maybe 3 seats.
 

DuineEile

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I think the TUV could surprise some people.

They performed poorly at Westminster yes, but the Assembly elections are a totally different ball game.

Jim Allister will almost certainly obtain enough votes personally to be elected to Stormont.

I also, do not think SF will take the FM post.

Seem a bit contradictory. TUV votes will most likely come from those who may just as easily vote DUP. A good TUV vote would surely increase Sinn Fein's chances of the First Minister's position. A concentration on the FM position on the unionist side would surely squeeze the UU's and the TUV?


Or was your post just wishful thinking?


D
 

Murph

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May 5th - a big day in the republican calender -Bobby Sands 30th anniversary!
 

Just Jack

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Seem a bit contradictory. TUV votes will most likely come from those who may just as easily vote DUP. A good TUV vote would surely increase Sinn Fein's chances of the First Minister's position. A concentration on the FM position on the unionist side would surely squeeze the UU's and the TUV?
No, I think it’s entirely possible for the TUV to obtain a number of seats whilst the DUP remain the largest party.

The DUP currently have 9 more seats than SF.

SF would need a 10+ swing to take the FM position as it stands.

Assuming the TUV only take support from disillusioned DUP voters, 7 or 8 seats (which I would consider to be a successful campaign for the TUV) would still not be enough to unsettle the DUP.

Or was your post just wishful thinking?
And what do you suggest I’m wishing for?
 

TrueBlue84

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No, I think it’s entirely possible for the TUV to obtain a number of seats whilst the DUP remain the largest party.

The DUP currently have 9 more seats than SF.

SF would need a 10+ swing to take the FM position as it stands.

Assuming the TUV only take support from disillusioned DUP voters, 7 or 8 seats (which I would consider to be a successful campaign for the TUV) would still not be enough to unsettle the DUP.



And what do you suggest I’m wishing for?
9 more seats but not as many big hitters out. They will have the Westminster expense budgets to spend though and the MPs will be out in force.

There are 2 independents are there not that SF will look to hoover up?

Gap down to 7.

SF will look for more seats and better vote management possibly getting 2 more seats?

Gap down to 5.

I think the UUP will claw back some ground against the DUP but lose further ground to the Alliance but ultimately balance.

But if the UUP take 2 seats from the DUP...

Gap down to 3.

TUV take 3 seats...?

Not as safe as you may think
 

Molly Maguire

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At council level the SDLP and PSF to gain a few seats.
Tens of thousands of working class unionists to stay at home because of the Lundyism of unionist mainstream parties in recent years.
Alliance to gain council seats all over the heartland of unionism that is Greater Belfast.
 

DuineEile

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No, I think it’s entirely possible for the TUV to obtain a number of seats whilst the DUP remain the largest party.

The DUP currently have 9 more seats than SF.

SF would need a 10+ swing to take the FM position as it stands.

Assuming the TUV only take support from disillusioned DUP voters, 7 or 8 seats (which I would consider to be a successful campaign for the TUV) would still not be enough to unsettle the DUP.



And what do you suggest I’m wishing for?

The most seats the TUV can get without Sinn Fein getting the First Minister position?

D
 

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