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NI Euro Election constituency: UUP on course to lose their seat?


raetsel

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Recent shifts in voting patterns along with majority support for continued EU membership, suggest that the next phase of unionism's decline may become evident at the end of May. The surge in support for Alliance and Greens in recent years, total support for unionist parties has now dropped to just over 45% in both the recent council elections and the 2017 Assembly race. (Though unionists did get around 47% in the Westminster election 3 months after the shock Assembly vote where unionists lost their majority of seats for the first time, but that looked like a knee-jerk reaction to the earlier result.)
As the total votes cast for unionist parties still exceeded the tally for nationalists, it seems more likely that Alliance stand a better chance of taking the third seat. There is a reasonably good chance of that happening provided Naomi Long is ahead of Colm Eastwood when the contest comes comes down to the final four, assuming that the SF and DUP candidates are in line to take the first two seats, as would be expected. Analysis of SDLP and Alliance transfers towards each other indicates that Alliance will benefit more from SDLP transfers than the reverse.
The momentum currently with Alliance is a reflection of Naomi Long's wider standing with the electorate, and compared to her UUP rival for the third seat, the lacklustre Danny Kennedy, it looks like it will be a close run contest.
Tactical voting by SDLP voters may well decide the final outcome.
 
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McSlaggart

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Recent shifts in voting patterns along with majority support for continued EU membership, suggest that the next phase of unionism's decline may become evident at the end of May. The surge in support for Alliance and Greens in recent years, total support for unionist parties has now dropped to just over 45% in both the recent council elections and the 2017 Assembly race. (Though unionists did get around 47% in the Westminster election 3 months after the shock Assembly vote where unionists lost their majority of seats for the first time, but that looked like a knee-jerk reaction to the earlier result.)
As the total votes cast for unionist parties still exceeded the tally for nationalists, it seems more likely that Alliance stand a better chance of taking the third seat. There is a reasonably good chance of that happening provided Naomi Long is ahead of Colm Eastwood when the contest comes comes down to the final four, assuming that the SF and DUP candidates are in line to take the first two seats, as would be expected. Analysis of SDLP and Alliance transfers towards each other indicates that Alliance will benefit more from SDLP transfers than the reverse.
The momentum currently with Alliance is a reflection of Naomi Long's wider standing with the electorate, and compared to her UUP rival for the third seat, the lacklustre Danny Kennedy, it looks like it will be a close run contest.
Tactical voting by SDLP voters may well decide the final outcome.

I will be voting for Colm Eastwood. It will be interesting to see who gets their vote out.
 

kbcav

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Todays Lucid Talk poll very accurate in previous polls has Anderson at 24.6,Dodds 18.2,Eastwood 11.8,Kennedy 10.6,Long 10.2,Allister 7.7,Bailey 4.1,Hill UKIP 1.5,Undecided 6.7.
 

Mickeymac

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Todays Lucid Talk poll very accurate in previous polls has Anderson at 24.6,Dodds 18.2,Eastwood 11.8,Kennedy 10.6,Long 10.2,Allister 7.7,Bailey 4.1,Hill UKIP 1.5,Undecided 6.7.

Looks like supporters of the EU connection will take 2 seats against the Brexiteers I remaining seat.
 

raetsel

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Todays Lucid Talk poll very accurate in previous polls has Anderson at 24.6,Dodds 18.2,Eastwood 11.8,Kennedy 10.6,Long 10.2,Allister 7.7,Bailey 4.1,Hill UKIP 1.5,Undecided 6.7.
Lucid Talk's record is impressive.
However this doesn't look like it is likely to reflect the final outcome
Unionists combined: 39.2
Nationalist combined: 36.4
All + Greens 14.7

Most Green transfers pass on to Alliance so Bailey's 4.1% is probably enough to put Long ahead of Eastwood. If so she may take the seat.
It is somewhat academic though. It is now looking increasingly likely that there will be a hard Brexit. But it would mark an irreversible shift away from a unionist majority for all time. :)
 

devonish

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Lucid Talk's record is impressive.
However this doesn't look like it is likely to reflect the final outcome
Unionists combined: 39.2
Nationalist combined: 36.4
All + Greens 14.7

Most Green transfers pass on to Alliance so Bailey's 4.1% is probably enough to put Long ahead of Eastwood. If so she may take the seat.
It is somewhat academic though. It is now looking increasingly likely that there will be a hard Brexit. But it would mark an irreversible shift away from a unionist majority for all time. :)
It's hard to get to excited about the Euro election, the reality is that it's pretty meaningless. I suspect that turnout will be lower than for the local elections so not too much to be read into the results. If Naomi Long doesn't get elected it'll be due to voter apathy amongst the middle ground.
 

raetsel

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It's hard to get to excited about the Euro election, the reality is that it's pretty meaningless. I suspect that turnout will be lower than for the local elections so not too much to be read into the results. If Naomi Long doesn't get elected it'll be due to voter apathy amongst the middle ground.
On the contrary, it will be interpreted as a mini-referendum on Brexit. It is important.
 

Mickeymac

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On the contrary, it will be interpreted as a mini-referendum on Brexit. It is important.

Unionists, particularly the DUP are peddling the lie that the upcoming European election is all to do with the border/Union.
 

devonish

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On the contrary, it will be interpreted as a mini-referendum on Brexit. It is important.
If 50% or more don't vote then it's pretty meaningless, we've had the Brexit referendum and it's clear from that what NI's view is.
 

boondock

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The Euro election gives you a better guage of party support though across NI. You dont have the case were your preferred party isnt standing in your area or you dont have to vote tactically for the least worst option as in FPTP.
 

raetsel

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Would be great to oust a unionist seat from Europe. Would even be better if nationalist SDLP done it rather than middle ground alliance.
There is no indication whatsoever that there are sufficient votes for that yet.
Vote tactically. That;s aside from the fact that Long is a very effective politician who deserves a voice.
 

Marcella

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The same lucid talk poll shows 43% of SF transfers going to Long with Eastwood only picking up 20% of the SF transfer.

Obviously soft unionist shinners...
 

Breanainn

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And crucially, only 19% of Allister's transfers go to Kennedy, which suggests Long remains ahead of him after that elimination, and is elected on UUP transfers (only 20%, but Eastwood gets virtually nothing, as you'd expect):

 

Mickeymac

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The same lucid talk poll shows 43% of SF transfers going to Long with Eastwood only picking up 20% of the SF transfer.

Obviously soft unionist shinners...

Could mean half the SF vote have not forgot the unwarranted attacks by Mehole and Colm on SF over some considerable period of time.
 

neiphin

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The same lucid talk poll shows 43% of SF transfers going to Long with Eastwood only picking up 20% of the SF transfer.

Obviously soft unionist shinners...
"On the other hand the transfer patterns mapped by LucidTalk means that even if she’s not in third place, Naomi’s chances should improve with each succeeding count, with the largest single number likely to come from those who plan to give the SDLP first preferences (71.8%). "

 

Leinsterview

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I can't understand SF's mentality in asking for second preferences for generic 'pro-remain' candidates rather than first to the *nationalist* pro-remain SDLP and *then* to other pro-remain candidates -- thereby undermining this glorious opportunity for nationalism to win two seats. After all the SDLP is definitively pro-UI; the Alliance Party is 'agnostic'.
 

devonish

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I can't understand SF's mentality in asking for second preferences for generic 'pro-remain' candidates rather than first to the *nationalist* pro-remain SDLP and *then* to other pro-remain candidates -- thereby undermining this glorious opportunity for nationalism to win two seats. After all the SDLP is definitively pro-UI; the Alliance Party is 'agnostic'.
SF would love to see the SDLP collapse, no love lost between those two parties, with SF, it's what's best for SF, not the bigger picture, an approach which is mirrored on the unionist side.
 

Mickeymac

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SF would love to see the SDLP collapse, no love lost between those two parties, with SF, it's what's best for SF, not the bigger picture, an approach which is mirrored on the unionist side.

Incorrect analysis, on the unionist side the UUP have shifted to the right of the DUP, remember the disgusting leaflets they distributed before the election in a feeble attempt to denigrate Alliance?
 

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