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NI Euro Election constituency: UUP on course to lose their seat?



Marcella

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Dec 8, 2010
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3,796


There has been much talk in recent days about soft unionists getting behind Alliance and how this accounts for the fall off in unionist voters.

The Belfast Telegraph’s publication of voting transfers puts this to bed. As can be seen from the figures, unionist voters almost universally transferred to unionist candidates.

With the elimination of the UUP’s Danny Kennedy, the TUV gained 16K votes, the DUP gained 28K votes and Alliance gained 7K votes.

When the SDLP were eliminated, Alliance gained a massive 46K votes.

Unionists can continue to kid themselves that their fall off in numbers is due to soft unionists opting for Alliance but it is in fact non-unionists opting for Alliance.

The core unionist vote is remaining and transferring within the unionist political spectrum.

The unionist fall in voters is largely down to demographic change.
 

Paddyc

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Jan 30, 2009
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9,523
number 1 votes in European election-

Sinn Fein- 323 029
Fianna Fáil- 277 703
DUP- 124 991
SDLP 78 589
If you're going to include votes from both jurisdictions on the island then you really should lump the SDLP in with Fianna Fáil which would make SDLP-FF the biggest party on the island.

These elections were a disaster for SF. The only question remaining is what, if anything can they do to steer the ship before a General Election.
 

devonish

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Joined
Dec 19, 2012
Messages
3,760


There has been much talk in recent days about soft unionists getting behind Alliance and how this accounts for the fall off in unionist voters.

The Belfast Telegraph’s publication of voting transfers puts this to bed. As can be seen from the figures, unionist voters almost universally transferred to unionist candidates.

With the elimination of the UUP’s Danny Kennedy, the TUV gained 16K votes, the DUP gained 28K votes and Alliance gained 7K votes.

When the SDLP were eliminated, Alliance gained a massive 46K votes.

Unionists can continue to kid themselves that their fall off in numbers is due to soft unionists opting for Alliance but it is in fact non-unionists opting for Alliance.

The core unionist vote is remaining and transferring within the unionist political spectrum.

The unionist fall in voters is largely down to demographic change.

If soft unionists got behind Alliance by giving Alliance their first vote then those votes don't appear on any analysis of transfers as Alliance votes didn't end up transferring anywhere. Logically, the more liberal soft unionists were the more likely to drift from the UUP leaving a greater proportion of the remaining UUP vote being closer to the DUP than Alliance.
 

between the bridges

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Joined
Sep 21, 2011
Messages
45,817


There has been much talk in recent days about soft unionists getting behind Alliance and how this accounts for the fall off in unionist voters.

The Belfast Telegraph’s publication of voting transfers puts this to bed. As can be seen from the figures, unionist voters almost universally transferred to unionist candidates.

With the elimination of the UUP’s Danny Kennedy, the TUV gained 16K votes, the DUP gained 28K votes and Alliance gained 7K votes.

When the SDLP were eliminated, Alliance gained a massive 46K votes.

Unionists can continue to kid themselves that their fall off in numbers is due to soft unionists opting for Alliance but it is in fact non-unionists opting for Alliance.

The core unionist vote is remaining and transferring within the unionist political spectrum.

The unionist fall in voters is largely down to demographic change.
Great theory dear, just a pity ye ignored the reality that the Alliance core vote is mainly soft unionists to begin with...

Next...
 

between the bridges

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Snap, but obviously I explained it better than Dev...
 

AhNowStop

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If soft unionists got behind Alliance by giving Alliance their first vote then those votes don't appear on any analysis of transfers as Alliance votes didn't end up transferring anywhere. Logically, the more liberal soft unionists were the more likely to drift from the UUP leaving a greater proportion of the remaining UUP vote being closer to the DUP than Alliance.
I know quite a few from both traditions who, for the first time ever, gave Alliance their 1st preference...

The question is ... is this phenomenon solely due to the Brexit shambles and the ridiculous position of the 2 main unionist parties or is it a genuine fundamental shift? .... :unsure:

probably a bit of both .. we'll see I suppose...
 

General Urko

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The old great Jaffafrikaner party is gone!
The boys of Glengall Street have taken it up the hole!
 

McSlaggart

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Dec 29, 2010
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If soft unionists got behind Alliance by giving Alliance their first vote then those votes don't appear on any analysis of transfers as Alliance votes didn't end up transferring anywhere. Logically, the more liberal soft unionists were the more likely to drift from the UUP leaving a greater proportion of the remaining UUP vote being closer to the DUP than Alliance.
Never did see any real difference between the UUP and the DUP.
 

Mickeymac

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Jun 30, 2010
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Never did see any real difference between the UUP and the DUP.

There is a big difference between them, one had supreme power for 50 years which they abused and the other would like similar with more special powers to put paddy back in a brand new cage devoid of ALL rights.
 

michael-mcivor

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Joined
Oct 15, 2011
Messages
3,338
If you're going to include votes from both jurisdictions on the island then you really should lump the SDLP in with Fianna Fáil which would make SDLP-FF the biggest party on the island.

These elections were a disaster for SF. The only question remaining is what, if anything can they do to steer the ship before a General Election.
There was no Fianna Fáil / SDLP on any ballot paper in the 32-
A disaster does not get Two MEPs elected and 81 councillors elected in the 26-
Hard work on the ground and keep being Republicans instead of worrying about sound-bites which see Republicans switching off-
 

between the bridges

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Sep 21, 2011
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45,817
There was no Fianna Fáil / SDLP on any ballot paper in the 32-
A disaster does not get Two MEPs elected and 81 councillors elected in the 26-
Hard work on the ground and keep being Republicans instead of worrying about sound-bites which see Republicans switching off-
Mick given the upsurge in yer posts can we take it that the latest Connolly mansion memo ordered the drones onto the interweb to pretend yez didn't get a beatch slapping....
 

raetsel

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Jun 5, 2017
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I know quite a few from both traditions who, for the first time ever, gave Alliance their 1st preference...

The question is ... is this phenomenon solely due to the Brexit shambles and the ridiculous position of the 2 main unionist parties or is it a genuine fundamental shift? .... :unsure:

probably a bit of both .. we'll see I suppose...
It's a good question. I actually think it is down to Naomi Long herself. She's an outstanding party leader. At 47 years old she could lead Alliance for another 20 years or more.
 

SgtBilko

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It's a good question. I actually think it is down to Naomi Long herself. She's an outstanding party leader. At 47 years old she could lead Alliance for another 20 years or more.
Alliance have attracted a lot of 'soft' unionists and, indeed nationalists, undoubtedly. In my opinion that is down to several reasons... unionist EU remainders....anger with the two main parties failure to restore Stormont and, as you say, not leastly Naomi Long's likeability.

The problem Alliance will face, of course, will come if and when they have to take a position on the constitutional issue. They will lose their electorate just as quickly as they gained them when/if that day comes. No amount of charisma from Naomi will turn a soft unionist into a nationalist, or vice versa.
 

AhNowStop

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It's a good question. I actually think it is down to Naomi Long herself. She's an outstanding party leader. At 47 years old she could lead Alliance for another 20 years or more.
Yep, she is head & shoulder above the rest & thats for sure .. I notice Brian Feeney is convinced its a Brexit blip and not much more ... I do hope he's wrong.
 

AhNowStop

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Alliance have attracted a lot of 'soft' unionists and, indeed nationalists, undoubtedly. In my opinion that is down to several reasons... unionist EU remainders....anger with the two main parties failure to restore Stormont and, as you say, not leastly Naomi Long's likeability.

The problem Alliance will face, of course, will come if and when they have to take a position on the constitutional issue. They will lose their electorate just as quickly as they gained them when/if that day comes. No amount of charisma from Naomi will turn a soft unionist into a nationalist, or vice versa.
but there is a middle ground on both sides who obviously now hold the balance ....

are you suggesting that there are no pragmatic unionists who would vote in favour of a UI if the current Brexit shambles makes their personal circumstances much worse, or look like getting worse .... just the same as there are plenty of nationalists who have been "happy enough" with the status quo due to their personal circumstances...

it works both ways in my view .. Brexit and the future relationships with the UK & Ireland/EU will be the deciding factor in any & all future border polls
 

raetsel

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Yep, she is head & shoulder above the rest & thats for sure .. I notice Brian Feeney is convinced its a Brexit blip and not much more ... I do hope he's wrong.
I saw that. I think he probably has a point. Naomi received 18.5% of the 1st preference vote in the European election. Her party received 11.5% of the f.p. vote in the council elections at the beginning of the month. Undoubtedly a lot of Remain unionists voted for her. However converting that personal vote into votes for the party will not be that easy. Nevertheless the progress that Alliance has made under her leadership is stunning.
 


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