NI Euro Election constituency: UUP on course to lose their seat?

devonish

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 19, 2012
Messages
3,896
I saw that. I think he probably has a point. Naomi received 18.5% of the 1st preference vote in the European election. Her party received 11.5% of the f.p. vote in the council elections at the beginning of the month. Undoubtedly a lot of Remain unionists voted for her. However converting that personal vote into votes for the party will not be that easy. Nevertheless the progress that Alliance has made under her leadership is stunning.
To some extent that EU election has to be looked at in isolation, personally I looked at it as purely an opportunity to express a view on the EU relationship and therefore gave Colm Eastwood my 2nd preference. I'm sure there are plenty of others who adopted a similar attitude in choosing to come across to giving Alliance their 1st preference. This is the big fear from the DUP perspective, that if they were to wipe out/merge with the UUP then a sizeable chunk of it's voters would move to Alliance.
 


raetsel

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 5, 2017
Messages
10,745
To some extent that EU election has to be looked at in isolation, personally I looked at it as purely an opportunity to express a view on the EU relationship and therefore gave Colm Eastwood my 2nd preference. I'm sure there are plenty of others who adopted a similar attitude in choosing to come across to giving Alliance their 1st preference. This is the big fear from the DUP perspective, that if they were to wipe out/merge with the UUP then a sizeable chunk of it's voters would move to Alliance.
Likewise with the SDLP.
Shinners make the mistake that every vote lost by the SDLP is a gain for them. The SDLP vote stubbornly remains above 10% for a reason. If the party were to disappear, my guess is that most of their voters would turn to Alliance. Again STV transfer analysis tends to bear this out.
 

Paddyc

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 30, 2009
Messages
11,071
I think the Alliance vote was boosted (a) by a personal vote for Naomi Long from people who couldn't vote for her otherwise and (b) a vote against Brexit.

Martina Anderson has claimed that life long Republicans were telling her that they were voting for Naomi because she (Martina) was safe and they wanted two pro EU MEPs.

There may be a grain of truth in that, although a lot of it is Martina getting her excuse in early, but I think Naomi earned every single vote she got.

The UUP are now in exactly the same boat as the SDLP; no MEP, No MP and around the 10 to 12 MLAs and 60 - 70 odd local councillors each. You'd have to wonder what the long term viability of each party is.
 

AhNowStop

Well-known member
Joined
May 23, 2017
Messages
10,980
To some extent that EU election has to be looked at in isolation, personally I looked at it as purely an opportunity to express a view on the EU relationship and therefore gave Colm Eastwood my 2nd preference. I'm sure there are plenty of others who adopted a similar attitude in choosing to come across to giving Alliance their 1st preference. This is the big fear from the DUP perspective, that if they were to wipe out/merge with the UUP then a sizeable chunk of it's voters would move to Alliance.
Do you mind if I ask you a question Dev ... who got your first pref?

I only ask because I know you're a unionist but I also know you're anti-brexit... which of these trumped the other in your case and why?


btw I dont mind if you dont answer but would be interesting if you did..
 

SgtBilko

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 11, 2011
Messages
7,585
but there is a middle ground on both sides who obviously now hold the balance ....

are you suggesting that there are no pragmatic unionists who would vote in favour of a UI if the current Brexit shambles makes their personal circumstances much worse, or look like getting worse .... just the same as there are plenty of nationalists who have been "happy enough" with the status quo due to their personal circumstances...

it works both ways in my view .. Brexit and the future relationships with the UK & Ireland/EU will be the deciding factor in any & all future border polls
Do I believe there are unionists who could be persuaded to vote for a UI? Hand on heart, I've never spoken to anyone who would hold that view but I'm sure there would be a very small number. I think they would be so few in numbers that they would have zero influence in any future border poll. As for Nationalists content with the status quo.... yip, they exist in greater numbers. How can I say that? Because I wholeheartedly believe change frightens people generally and many of us are happy with the things as they are.

EU remainders generally fear the unknown when they consider Brexit. They are comfortable with things as they are and are certainly not big enough risk takers to take that leap. Those are the very people you'll be relying on to take an even bigger leap, into the deeper unknown that is a UI.

I can't see it happening and I say that in all seriousness, all 'winding up' aside.

Brexit will happen within months. We will leave the EU and life will go on as normal. Five years down the line, we'll look back and wonder what all the fuss was about.
 

McSlaggart

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 29, 2010
Messages
19,022
Do I believe there are unionists who could be persuaded to vote for a UI? Hand on heart, I've never spoken to anyone who would hold that view but I'm sure there would be a very small number. I think they would be so few in numbers that they would have zero influence in any future border poll. As for Nationalists content with the status quo.... yip, they exist in greater numbers. How can I say that? Because I wholeheartedly believe change frightens people generally and many of us are happy with the things as they are.

EU remainders generally fear the unknown when they consider Brexit. They are comfortable with things as they are and are certainly not big enough risk takers to take that leap. Those are the very people you'll be relying on to take an even bigger leap, into the deeper unknown that is a UI.

I can't see it happening and I say that in all seriousness, all 'winding up' aside.

Brexit will happen within months. We will leave the EU and life will go on as normal. Five years down the line, we'll look back and wonder what all the fuss was about.
 

McSlaggart

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 29, 2010
Messages
19,022
Its no so much a united Ireland bit that will interest unionists but getting back into the EU.

This is no longer a British Irish question but a UK v EU one.
 

devonish

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 19, 2012
Messages
3,896
Do you mind if I ask you a question Dev ... who got your first pref?

I only ask because I know you're a unionist but I also know you're anti-brexit... which of these trumped the other in your case and why?


btw I dont mind if you dont answer but would be interesting if you did..
I thought that would have been obvious given that I gave Eastwood 2nd preference, Alliance got my 1st, as they have done for most elections for the last 20 odd years apart from Westminster.
 

AhNowStop

Well-known member
Joined
May 23, 2017
Messages
10,980
Do I believe there are unionists who could be persuaded to vote for a UI? Hand on heart, I've never spoken to anyone who would hold that view but I'm sure there would be a very small number. I think they would be so few in numbers that they would have zero influence in any future border poll. As for Nationalists content with the status quo.... yip, they exist in greater numbers. How can I say that? Because I wholeheartedly believe change frightens people generally and many of us are happy with the things as they are.

EU remainders generally fear the unknown when they consider Brexit. They are comfortable with things as they are and are certainly not big enough risk takers to take that leap. Those are the very people you'll be relying on to take an even bigger leap, into the deeper unknown that is a UI.

I can't see it happening and I say that in all seriousness, all 'winding up' aside.

Brexit will happen within months. We will leave the EU and life will go on as normal. Five years down the line, we'll look back and wonder what all the fuss was about.
Several unionist friends have told me they would vote to stay in the EU if it came to it ... other mitigating factors will no doubt be how the economies of both jurisdictions fair out in the near future .. Brexit has changed everything .. but for what its worth, the longer this clusterfuk goes on the more Im thinking Brexit may not even happen at all ... at least the chances of it not happening are certainly going up

thats the crazy thing .. if Brexit doesnt happen the border poll goes on the long finger ... why some unionists and the mentalists in the DUP want it so badly is just nuts..
 

death or glory

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 1, 2012
Messages
20,190
Several unionist friends have told me they would vote to stay in the EU if it came to it ... other mitigating factors will no doubt be how the economies of both jurisdictions fair out in the near future .. Brexit has changed everything .. but for what its worth, the longer this clusterfuk goes on the more Im thinking Brexit may not even happen at all ... at least the chances of it not happening are certainly going up

thats the crazy thing .. if Brexit doesnt happen the border poll goes on the long finger ... why some unionists and the mentalists in the DUP want it so badly is just nuts..
Cynthia,
I doubt if you have any real friends (well apart from Bessie) and SF/IRA terrorist supporter like you defo won't have any prod friends.
 

AhNowStop

Well-known member
Joined
May 23, 2017
Messages
10,980
Cynthia,
I doubt if you have any real friends (well apart from Bessie) and SF/IRA terrorist supporter like you defo won't have any prod friends.
here Dopey, ye didnt answer my question yet .. are you afraid to face it wee son :ROFLMAO: .. .. anyway, here it is again, which do you prefer .. a border poll within 5 years or the border down the Irish sea ? .....

.... Take your pick because sure as fuk one of them is your future ;) lmfao


Here btw, whats the weather like under the car today wee son .. has yer Ma brought you a scooby snack yet ๐Ÿ˜‚
 

death or glory

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 1, 2012
Messages
20,190
here Dopey, ye didnt answer my question yet .. are you afraid to face it wee son :ROFLMAO: .. .. anyway, here it is again, which do you prefer .. a border poll within 5 years or the border down the Irish sea ? .....

.... Take your pick because sure as fuk one of them is your future ;) lmfao


Here btw, whats the weather like under the car today wee son .. has yer Ma brought you a scooby snack yet ๐Ÿ˜‚
Cynthia,
Is milking time over yet.

How do you feel about the reason there will never be an United Ireland is entirely due to Provo terrorism which you supported.
 

SgtBilko

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 11, 2011
Messages
7,585

'Demographics will get ya'.. they told us. 'Tick tock'.... They sneered.

But wait.....what's this?.....

"The youngest age bracket (between 18 and 24 years old) also had a high number of neutrals, with 59% saying they were neither unionist nor nationalist.

However, in that age group young unionists outnumbered young nationalists significantly, with a quarter of 18 to 24-year-old respondents describing themselves as unionist, and just 14% who said they were nationalists.

At the other end of the scale, there was an even bigger political split between the over-65s.

Just under a fifth (19%) of pensioners described themselves as nationalist while more than twice that number (41%) replied that they were unionist."

How do ya like dem apples?

Lovely.

 

AhNowStop

Well-known member
Joined
May 23, 2017
Messages
10,980
Cynthia,
Is milking time over yet.

How do you feel about the reason there will never be an United Ireland is entirely due to Provo terrorism which you supported.
Oh dear poor dopey with more idiotic & baseless claims ...if you had just one post of mine to support it youโ€™d gold plate it but you havenโ€™t have you dopey .... tut tut :rolleyes: lol

Ah well I guess if you havenโ€™t the intelligence to debate โ€œanythingโ€ you simply have to resort to spouting moronic repetitive lies ... tis a pity your Ma never educated you like the loved kids ... you wouldnโ€™t have to resort to stuff like this but alas you are what you are ;) .... poor wee critter

Tell you what dopey, you answer the question I asked you and Iโ€™ll answer yours ...... here goes โ€œagainโ€

As the cretinous DUP have led you to a fork in the road, which outcome do you prefer ... A border poll within *5 years or the border in the Irish Sea ?

Mon now son, itโ€™s one or the other ...Iโ€™ll time ye ๐Ÿ˜˜
 

SgtBilko

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 11, 2011
Messages
7,585
As the cretinous DUP have led you to a fork in the road, which outcome do you prefer ... A border poll within *5 years or the border in the Irish Sea ?

Mon now son, itโ€™s one or the other ...Iโ€™ll time ye ๐Ÿ˜˜
Brilliant ๐Ÿค—๐Ÿ˜‚.... is that another one of those magical predictions of yours, thicko? You've repeated it so often recently it's beginning to look like you're trying to convince yourself. ๐Ÿ˜‚

Brexit or no Brexit, there is very little appetite for a border poll, other than from the most rabid of terrorist supporting Republicans... ie. loons like you.

Anyway good luck with your '5 year' prediction..... hope it works out better than this gem ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ‘

... it won't last 5 months....
๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚
 

AhNowStop

Well-known member
Joined
May 23, 2017
Messages
10,980
Brilliant ๐Ÿค—๐Ÿ˜‚.... is that another one of those magical predictions of yours, thicko? You've repeated it so often recently it's beginning to look like you're trying to convince yourself. ๐Ÿ˜‚

Brexit or no Brexit, there is very little appetite for a border poll, other than from the most rabid of terrorist supporting Republicans... ie. loons like you.

Anyway good luck with your '5 year' prediction..... hope it works out better than this gem ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ‘



๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚
Jeepers oh hi, what is it with you wee loyalist scummers that yez just cant answer a simple question :unsure:

I'll try again ...

Which do you prefer wee son, a border poll within *5 years or the border down the Irish Sea ... (I'll take the Irish Sea border for starters btw๐Ÿ˜˜ lmfao)

and thank feck the DUP are still there as without them all this beautiful stuff wouldnt be happening .. who could have possibly imagined they would be the best Irish Nationalists ever .... Keep it up Snarlene & Co ... yez are playing a blinder ............... for us ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚;) ... Lovely :whistle: lmfao
 

SgtBilko

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 11, 2011
Messages
7,585
Jeepers oh hi, what is it with you wee loyalist scummers that yez just cant answer a simple question :unsure:

I'll try again ...

Which do you prefer wee son, a border poll within *5 years or the border down the Irish Sea ... (I'll take the Irish Sea border for starters btw๐Ÿ˜˜ lmfao)

and thank feck the DUP are still there as without them all this beautiful stuff wouldnt be happening .. who could have possibly imagined they would be the best Irish Nationalists ever .... Keep it up Snarlene & Co ... yez are playing a blinder ............... for us ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚;) ... Lovely :whistle: lmfao
I shouldn't really, but I'll indulge you even though your nonsensical, irrelevant question is simply your own wet dream. (We both know neither will happen.)

I'll play along though.... I'll take the border poll all day long. Very confident that support for a UI in any border poll will struggle to reach 25%.

By the way did you see the latest NI Life & Times survey, which showed:

"unionists outnumbered young nationalists significantly, with a quarter of 18 to 24-year-old respondents describing themselves as unionist, and just 14% who said they were nationalists"


Demographics dear boy, demographics..... tick tock... and all that ballix. LMFAO

Lovely. ๐Ÿ˜๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚
 


Top Bottom