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NI Euro Election constituency: UUP on course to lose their seat?

devonish

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Dec 19, 2012
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I saw that. I think he probably has a point. Naomi received 18.5% of the 1st preference vote in the European election. Her party received 11.5% of the f.p. vote in the council elections at the beginning of the month. Undoubtedly a lot of Remain unionists voted for her. However converting that personal vote into votes for the party will not be that easy. Nevertheless the progress that Alliance has made under her leadership is stunning.
To some extent that EU election has to be looked at in isolation, personally I looked at it as purely an opportunity to express a view on the EU relationship and therefore gave Colm Eastwood my 2nd preference. I'm sure there are plenty of others who adopted a similar attitude in choosing to come across to giving Alliance their 1st preference. This is the big fear from the DUP perspective, that if they were to wipe out/merge with the UUP then a sizeable chunk of it's voters would move to Alliance.
 


raetsel

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To some extent that EU election has to be looked at in isolation, personally I looked at it as purely an opportunity to express a view on the EU relationship and therefore gave Colm Eastwood my 2nd preference. I'm sure there are plenty of others who adopted a similar attitude in choosing to come across to giving Alliance their 1st preference. This is the big fear from the DUP perspective, that if they were to wipe out/merge with the UUP then a sizeable chunk of it's voters would move to Alliance.
Likewise with the SDLP.
Shinners make the mistake that every vote lost by the SDLP is a gain for them. The SDLP vote stubbornly remains above 10% for a reason. If the party were to disappear, my guess is that most of their voters would turn to Alliance. Again STV transfer analysis tends to bear this out.
 

Paddyc

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I think the Alliance vote was boosted (a) by a personal vote for Naomi Long from people who couldn't vote for her otherwise and (b) a vote against Brexit.

Martina Anderson has claimed that life long Republicans were telling her that they were voting for Naomi because she (Martina) was safe and they wanted two pro EU MEPs.

There may be a grain of truth in that, although a lot of it is Martina getting her excuse in early, but I think Naomi earned every single vote she got.

The UUP are now in exactly the same boat as the SDLP; no MEP, No MP and around the 10 to 12 MLAs and 60 - 70 odd local councillors each. You'd have to wonder what the long term viability of each party is.
 

AhNowStop

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To some extent that EU election has to be looked at in isolation, personally I looked at it as purely an opportunity to express a view on the EU relationship and therefore gave Colm Eastwood my 2nd preference. I'm sure there are plenty of others who adopted a similar attitude in choosing to come across to giving Alliance their 1st preference. This is the big fear from the DUP perspective, that if they were to wipe out/merge with the UUP then a sizeable chunk of it's voters would move to Alliance.
Do you mind if I ask you a question Dev ... who got your first pref?

I only ask because I know you're a unionist but I also know you're anti-brexit... which of these trumped the other in your case and why?


btw I dont mind if you dont answer but would be interesting if you did..
 

SgtBilko

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but there is a middle ground on both sides who obviously now hold the balance ....

are you suggesting that there are no pragmatic unionists who would vote in favour of a UI if the current Brexit shambles makes their personal circumstances much worse, or look like getting worse .... just the same as there are plenty of nationalists who have been "happy enough" with the status quo due to their personal circumstances...

it works both ways in my view .. Brexit and the future relationships with the UK & Ireland/EU will be the deciding factor in any & all future border polls
Do I believe there are unionists who could be persuaded to vote for a UI? Hand on heart, I've never spoken to anyone who would hold that view but I'm sure there would be a very small number. I think they would be so few in numbers that they would have zero influence in any future border poll. As for Nationalists content with the status quo.... yip, they exist in greater numbers. How can I say that? Because I wholeheartedly believe change frightens people generally and many of us are happy with the things as they are.

EU remainders generally fear the unknown when they consider Brexit. They are comfortable with things as they are and are certainly not big enough risk takers to take that leap. Those are the very people you'll be relying on to take an even bigger leap, into the deeper unknown that is a UI.

I can't see it happening and I say that in all seriousness, all 'winding up' aside.

Brexit will happen within months. We will leave the EU and life will go on as normal. Five years down the line, we'll look back and wonder what all the fuss was about.
 

McSlaggart

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Do I believe there are unionists who could be persuaded to vote for a UI? Hand on heart, I've never spoken to anyone who would hold that view but I'm sure there would be a very small number. I think they would be so few in numbers that they would have zero influence in any future border poll. As for Nationalists content with the status quo.... yip, they exist in greater numbers. How can I say that? Because I wholeheartedly believe change frightens people generally and many of us are happy with the things as they are.

EU remainders generally fear the unknown when they consider Brexit. They are comfortable with things as they are and are certainly not big enough risk takers to take that leap. Those are the very people you'll be relying on to take an even bigger leap, into the deeper unknown that is a UI.

I can't see it happening and I say that in all seriousness, all 'winding up' aside.

Brexit will happen within months. We will leave the EU and life will go on as normal. Five years down the line, we'll look back and wonder what all the fuss was about.
 

McSlaggart

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Its no so much a united Ireland bit that will interest unionists but getting back into the EU.

This is no longer a British Irish question but a UK v EU one.
 

devonish

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Do you mind if I ask you a question Dev ... who got your first pref?

I only ask because I know you're a unionist but I also know you're anti-brexit... which of these trumped the other in your case and why?


btw I dont mind if you dont answer but would be interesting if you did..
I thought that would have been obvious given that I gave Eastwood 2nd preference, Alliance got my 1st, as they have done for most elections for the last 20 odd years apart from Westminster.
 

AhNowStop

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May 23, 2017
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Do I believe there are unionists who could be persuaded to vote for a UI? Hand on heart, I've never spoken to anyone who would hold that view but I'm sure there would be a very small number. I think they would be so few in numbers that they would have zero influence in any future border poll. As for Nationalists content with the status quo.... yip, they exist in greater numbers. How can I say that? Because I wholeheartedly believe change frightens people generally and many of us are happy with the things as they are.

EU remainders generally fear the unknown when they consider Brexit. They are comfortable with things as they are and are certainly not big enough risk takers to take that leap. Those are the very people you'll be relying on to take an even bigger leap, into the deeper unknown that is a UI.

I can't see it happening and I say that in all seriousness, all 'winding up' aside.

Brexit will happen within months. We will leave the EU and life will go on as normal. Five years down the line, we'll look back and wonder what all the fuss was about.
Several unionist friends have told me they would vote to stay in the EU if it came to it ... other mitigating factors will no doubt be how the economies of both jurisdictions fair out in the near future .. Brexit has changed everything .. but for what its worth, the longer this clusterfuk goes on the more Im thinking Brexit may not even happen at all ... at least the chances of it not happening are certainly going up

thats the crazy thing .. if Brexit doesnt happen the border poll goes on the long finger ... why some unionists and the mentalists in the DUP want it so badly is just nuts..
 


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