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NI Euro Election constituency: UUP on course to lose their seat?


mangaire2

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I can't understand SF's mentality in asking for second preferences for generic 'pro-remain' candidates rather than first to the *nationalist* pro-remain SDLP and *then* to other pro-remain candidates -- thereby undermining this glorious opportunity for nationalism to win two seats. After all the SDLP is definitively pro-UI; the Alliance Party is 'agnostic'.
I think that it may have something to do with the fact that the SDLP & FF never miss an opportunity to attack & denigrate SF.

also SF tried a number of times in the past to have a transfer arrangement with the SDLP, only to be arrogantly rejected.
 


Mickeymac

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I think that it may have something to do with the fact that the SDLP & FF never miss an opportunity to attack & denigrate SF.

also SF tried a number of times in the past to have a transfer arrangement with the SDLP, only to be arrogantly rejected.

Absolutely sir.👍
 

Ó Ghabhainn

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I think that it may have something to do with the fact that the SDLP & FF never miss an opportunity to attack & denigrate SF.

also SF tried a number of times in the past to have a transfer arrangement with the SDLP, only to be arrogantly rejected.
To be fair, there are many if not most SDLP voters who would have no truck voting for Sinn Féin (who they view as supporting violence - the nature of which is irrelevant to them). This is the SDLP's support base, and they don't want to lose them to Alliance.

These are the kind of people who admire John Hume, but simultaneously ignore the fact that he had to talk with these men of violence. What can ya do?
 

Newrybhoy

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To be fair, there are many if not most SDLP voters who would have no truck voting for Sinn Féin (who they view as supporting violence - the nature of which is irrelevant to them). This is the SDLP's support base, and they don't want to lose them to Alliance.

These are the kind of people who admire John Hume, but simultaneously ignore the fact that he had to talk with these men of violence. What can ya do?
If you ally with SF, you endorse their murder campaign. Fair play to the SDLP for staying aloof from them.

Although Eastwood has the whiff of gun smoke about him.
 

Paddyc

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I can't understand SF's mentality in asking for second preferences for generic 'pro-remain' candidates rather than first to the *nationalist* pro-remain SDLP and *then* to other pro-remain candidates -- thereby undermining this glorious opportunity for nationalism to win two seats. After all the SDLP is definitively pro-UI; the Alliance Party is 'agnostic'.
I can.

They smell blood in the water.

They see this as a 'two for the price of one' election campaign.

They can damage the UUP if Naomi Long takes their Euro seat which would be hugely demoralising for them and the SDLP if they wind up behind both the UUP and Alliance when the seats are distributed which would be hugely demoralising for them too.

SF are looking to the next Westminster election and really, really want to take Belfast North and South and the best way to do that (particularly in Belfast South) is to cannibalize SDLP votes.

If they hold three out of four seats in Belfast, that makes re-partition an effective impossibility.

SF are always thinking and acting strategically.
 

Mickeymac

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I can.

They smell blood in the water.

They see this as a 'two for the price of one' election campaign.

They can damage the UUP if Naomi Long takes their Euro seat which would be hugely demoralising for them and the SDLP if they wind up behind both the UUP and Alliance when the seats are distributed which would be hugely demoralising for them too.

SF are looking to the next Westminster election and really, really want to take Belfast North and South and the best way to do that (particularly in Belfast South) is to cannibalize SDLP votes.

If they hold three out of four seats in Belfast, that makes re-partition an effective impossibility.

SF are always thinking and acting strategically.

Partition is evil and I don’t believe it will ever resurface in the new Ireland.
 

Marcella

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I can.

They smell blood in the water.

They see this as a 'two for the price of one' election campaign.

They can damage the UUP if Naomi Long takes their Euro seat which would be hugely demoralising for them and the SDLP if they wind up behind both the UUP and Alliance when the seats are distributed which would be hugely demoralising for them too.

SF are looking to the next Westminster election and really, really want to take Belfast North and South and the best way to do that (particularly in Belfast South) is to cannibalize SDLP votes.

If they hold three out of four seats in Belfast, that makes re-partition an effective impossibility.

SF are always thinking and acting strategically.
Re- partition ? Antrim and the Ards peninsula - our wee country indeed.
 

Marcella

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I can't understand SF's mentality in asking for second preferences for generic 'pro-remain' candidates rather than first to the *nationalist* pro-remain SDLP and *then* to other pro-remain candidates -- thereby undermining this glorious opportunity for nationalism to win two seats. After all the SDLP is definitively pro-UI; the Alliance Party is 'agnostic'.
Alliance in my view are better placed to take the third seat, pro-remain unionists will not vote SDLP.

Therefore nationalist transfers to Alliance is the best hope for two remain candidates getting elected.

As previously said, the SDLP have rejected nationalist pacts in the past most notably in Fermanagh South Tyrone and North Belfast, aiding the election of unionist candidates.
 

Leinsterview

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It behoves both SF and the SDLP to think unselfishly in terms of the broader nationalist agenda and not in narrow party political terms.
 

Paddyc

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It behoves both SF and the SDLP to think unselfishly in terms of the broader nationalist agenda and not in narrow party political terms.
Nah,

SF have asked their voters to transfer their votes to other pro EU parties. This is the correct, unselfish and non-sectarian approach to take.

It's time to look beyond petty nationalisms and look to the broader bigger picture.
 

Mickeymac

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Nah,

SF have asked their voters to transfer their votes to other pro EU parties. This is the correct, unselfish and non-sectarian approach to take.

It's time to look beyond petty nationalisms and look to the broader bigger picture.

Absolutely Paddy, other parties should follow that route as well.
 

raetsel

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To be fair, there are many if not most SDLP voters who would have no truck voting for Sinn Féin (who they view as supporting violence - the nature of which is irrelevant to them). This is the SDLP's support base, and they don't want to lose them to Alliance.

These are the kind of people who admire John Hume, but simultaneously ignore the fact that he had to talk with these men of violence. What can ya do?
Transfer analysis bears that out. Most SDLP transfers will go to an Alliance, Green, or PBP candidate still in an electoral race rather than SF.
 

raetsel

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If you ally with SF, you endorse their murder campaign. Fair play to the SDLP for staying aloof from them.

Although Eastwood has the whiff of gun smoke about him.
No he doesn't, you idiot. He's a typical middle-class Derry lad, who several years ago was asked to carry the coffin of of a deceased schoolfriend who was had been in the INLA many years before, but had not been active in it at the time of his death. His response to the deceased family's request/invitation was an entirely understandable human one.
Various senior UUP and DUP figures attended the funeral of John Bingham, one of the most notorious (and still very active at the time of death) UVF gangsters during the Troubles, e.g. Cecil Walker MP and Ian Paisley MP.
Yet few, if any, unionists at the time had a problem voting for those either of those men, and it wasn't even controversial back then.
 

Cai

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There is no indication whatsoever that there are sufficient votes for that yet.
Vote tactically. That;s aside from the fact that Long is a very effective politician who deserves a voice.
There’s certainly the votes there to take the third seats from the UUP. It’s more likely to be Alliance doing it than the SDLP though.
 

Cai

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Transfer analysis bears that out. Most SDLP transfers will go to an Alliance, Green, or PBP candidate still in an electoral race rather than SF.
SF will come in over quota - so it doesn’t really matter.
 

raetsel

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SF will come in over quota - so it doesn’t really matter.
It's not relevant to the point I was making. And given the number of candidates they may not anyway. I don't think they were over the quote last time. They will be elected of course. Nobody would seriously doubt that.
 

raetsel

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There’s certainly the votes there to take the third seats from the UUP. It’s more likely to be Alliance doing it than the SDLP though.
My point is that while unionism still has even a smallish voting plurality, as is the case at the moment, a nationalist is less likely to take the seat that a neutral who because of her background will attract far more unionist transfers, and thus take a previously unionist held seat.
There are not enough votes yet to get Eastwood over the line. a quick glance at the 2014 election proves that. The UUP were 43K votes ahead of the SDLP in the end. Demographic shifts in the interim will have closed the gap but not to that extent.
 

Cai

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My point is that while unionism still has even a smallish voting plurality, as is the case at the moment, a nationalist is less likely to take the seat that a neutral who because of her background will attract far more unionist transfers than a nationalist candidate.
The recent Lucid Talk poll indicates that they’ll come in over quota comfortably enough. It also indicates - as you say - that not many SDLP second preferences will go to to SF. More surprisingly - for some - is the fact that far more SF second preferences will go to Alliance than the SDLP. That is also true of every other party.
 

raetsel

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The recent Lucid Talk poll indicates that they’ll come in over quota comfortably enough. It also indicates - as you say - that not many SDLP second preferences will go to to SF. More surprisingly - for some - is the fact that far more SF second preferences will go to Alliance than the SDLP. That is also true of every other party.
I suspect that may be partly due to the fact that in the current era, our choice of party leaders has sunk to a level of unparalleled mediocrity. When Long is compared with Foster, O'Neill, Eastwood or the UUP leader, (whose name I've even momentarily forgotten :ROFLMAO: ), she looks outstanding.
 

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