• It has come to our attention that some users may have been "banned" when they tried to change their passwords after the site was hacked due to a glitch in the old vBulletin software. This would have occurred around the end of February and does not apply after the site was converted to Xenforo. If you believe you were affected by this, please contact a staff member or use the Contact us link at the bottom of any forum page.

No FF seats in Cork North West - poll?


TommyO'Brien

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 14, 2009
Messages
12,222
John Burns from the Sunday Times has just tweeted that a poll says FF would lose ALL its seats in Cork North West and win no seats.

Has anyone seen the Sunday Times yet for details?
 

rockofcashel

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 23, 2005
Messages
7,956
Website
www.sinnfein.ie
There must be horrendous figures coming out of polls for FF if they are losing seats in places like that
 

Ah Well

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 18, 2008
Messages
1,235
There must be horrendous figures coming out of polls for FF if they are losing seats in places like that
I can't see this happening tbh ... I can assure you there are plenty die hard FFers in CNW as there have always been

Tribal FF/FG as a Constituency.

If this were true one would presumably be looking at 2FG 1 Lab.

Nah .... CNW will next Election have 2FG and 1FF. No way will the FF vote collapse enough for there not to be at least one FFer returned (possibly Moynihan)
 

DeGaulle 2.0

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 2, 2008
Messages
2,001
Website
ga.wikipedia.org
FF got 53.05% in Cork North West at the last election - I know there are boundary changes but if this is true then only Brian Cowen is safe.
 

jacko

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 6, 2009
Messages
2,666
even the dogs on the street know that Batt O'Keeffe will lose his seat - but Moynihan will hold his.

Creed (FG), Coughlan (Lab) and Moynihan(FF) will be elected based on the current polls
 

neiphin

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2009
Messages
5,581
tommy
that certainly is excellent news, and hopefully it will be replicated across the nation

but as an aside
you stated here the other evening that the **** had missed important engagements while on her mission to create jobs in the us of a
when questioned about this, you proceeded to go mute
now it may happen that your granny died or you had a call of nature to attend to, and that would be acceptable
however
i would appreciate if you could clarify your comments about the deputy pm
i would hate to have to consider you an fg lacky and teller of mis-truths
 

gijoe

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 26, 2010
Messages
15,419
This is Batt O'Keeffe's constituency as well. It contains Ballincollig which is really suburban Cork so it is not entirely rural.
 

gijoe

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 26, 2010
Messages
15,419
Just had a look at the constituency result from 2007 on ElectionsIreland. So FG should get two seats going and Labour one? But Labour only got 4.9% of the vote in 2007. I suppose they could at least treble that.
Coughlan gave it a good run at the time of the Spring tide in 1992 plus it is now more urban with the Ballincollig area in North West. It is plausible that they could win a seat on current national polling.
 

dotski_w_

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 28, 2004
Messages
2,485
Website
irishpollingreport.wordpress.com
John Burns from the Sunday Times has just tweeted that a poll says FF would lose ALL its seats in Cork North West and win no seats.

Has anyone seen the Sunday Times yet for details?
not really credible (much as I'd like it). My spreadsheet has been accused of over-optimism, but the latest poll of polls (totals at Poll of Polls « Irish Polling Report ) it comes out as FF at 37%, FG on 40% and LP on 19%.

OF course O'keefe is likely to retire, but Moynihan is young enough (and reasonably presentable) so I can't see this happening.

Is it possible that he meant South West? Spreadsheet is suggesting 27% for FF, 36% FG and 26% LP. Slightly more credible, but even here it's very very unlikely, it would need FG doing far better, but not at the expense of LP.
 

Ah Well

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 18, 2008
Messages
1,235
This is Batt O'Keeffe's constituency as well. It contains Ballincollig which is really suburban Cork so it is not entirely rural.
That is true. CNW these days is not as it once was having the urban sprawl of Ballincollig now in tow.

For those advocating a Lab seat in CNW I cannot see where that's going to be coming from. Who's the Candidate going to be - Coughlan? Look even at the Locals in 2009 - Lab decided to field Coughlan who is a Macrompian and folk in Ballincollig still know/knew nothing about him. Fielded substantially less in 1st Preferences that the FFer Moynihan.

There's no seat for Labour in CNW

But there is certainly 1 for FG and quite possibly 2

And there will be 1 for FF too
 

punchdrunk

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 15, 2008
Messages
7,208
There must be horrendous figures coming out of polls for FF if they are losing seats in places like that
FF will definitely win one seat in Cork NW. It is conservative and there is a strong loyalty factor there. There is a real FF hard core vote there. Now it might be different in city constituencies.
 

punchdrunk

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 15, 2008
Messages
7,208
even the dogs on the street know that Batt O'Keeffe will lose his seat - but Moynihan will hold his.

Creed (FG), Coughlan (Lab) and Moynihan(FF) will be elected based on the current polls
Never discount the ministerial car.
 

Newsy

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2009
Messages
910
Kelly (Labour) Munster in the Europeans was a surprise....so I do believe that ff will be under pressure in CNW.

People are hurting everywhere and are asking 'Why?'
 

dotski_w_

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 28, 2004
Messages
2,485
Website
irishpollingreport.wordpress.com
FF will definitely win one seat in Cork NW. It is conservative and there is a strong loyalty factor there. There is a real FF hard core vote there. Now it might be different in city constituencies.
in fairness there's about 29 constituencies I have them over 20%, which would probably be enough for them in a 3-seater.
 

dotski_w_

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 28, 2004
Messages
2,485
Website
irishpollingreport.wordpress.com
Kelly (Labour) Munster in the Europeans was a surprise....so I do believe that ff will be under pressure in CNW.

People are hurting everywhere and are asking 'Why?'
they'll definately lose one seat, but I can't see two going. 1 FF, 1 FG, and last seat between FG and LP.
 

punchdrunk

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 15, 2008
Messages
7,208
in fairness there's about 29 constituencies I have them over 20%, which would probably be enough for them in a 3-seater.
That is correct. I doubt that Batt O'Keeffe will lose his seat. He has had several years to solidify his position in the constituency. I suspect that a lot of FF people polled are not divulging real voting intentions to pollsters. I can see FF winning at least 36% of the vote nationwide in a general election. Do not discount them.
 

gijoe

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 26, 2010
Messages
15,419
There is one area in CNW on the Cork/Limerick/Kerry border called Rockchapel. I was in College with a guy who was the local FF Cumann secretary. Anyway at the time of the divorce referendum in the mid 90's the tallying of the Rockchapel box showed that everyone who cast a ballot voted No, some 200 odd I think. There was not a single Yes ballot cast in that polling booth - the only one in the country. That is a true story.
 
Top