Northern Ireland vote required by constituency/county to achieve 50%+1 in a border poll

arsenal

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I know this is extremely hypothetical but for there to be a successful border poll what sort of margins are required in the constituencies and counties if it were to be successful or even a close race with nationalists getting 45%. With Down and Antrim being majority protestant and having about 65% of the population and with religious background still a key indicator, what sort of results would be required in the west of Northern Ireland to win a border poll. With areas where nationalists have little or no representation and where British identity is stongest in the greater Belfast area like North Down you would be looking at probably 80-90% to stay in the UK. Would 70% plus of people in West Tyrone and mId-Ulster be feasible to make any border poll competitve.

If you just break it down into the 6 counties. If Antrim and Down have more Protestants than Catholics and with only a small number of protestants considering voting for a UI,also including that many Catholics in the greater Belfast area are probably doing ok and are consequently less likely to vote for UI than catholics further west what sort of vote is required. Can a unity poll be won in the 4 other counties alone,or does one of the 2 "big" counties have to vote for a united Ireland for it to be close?
 


FOURGREENFIELDS

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Don't the Brexitiers and pro-abortionists lecture the rest that we MUST respect democracy even if we didn't vote in favour of either. It's VERY simple, a 50%+1 vote across the North is sufficient, a break down of individual counties being allowed to opt out ISN'T an option. There can be NO rewriting of the Good Friday/St. Andrew's Agreements and democracy CANNOT be usurped by a few red faced PUL's around Larne or Donaghadee.
 
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PO'Neill

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And so here we go again ...... our unionist friends will come on stating a border poll isn't necessary as media polls show that blah, blah, blah most SF/SDLP voters won't vote for a UI. To which it will have to be stated for the umpteenth time if the unionists and Tory's actually believed in these private polls they'd want a border tomorrow to embarrass SF and Irish nationalism and put the issue aside for a few decades. The fact that they are afraid to hold one says it all........ and so on and so on and so on.

Maybe this will be of some use to the OP though I don't see the point of the thread, you might as well be asking how long is a length of string.

 

silverharp

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I'd prefer 2/3rds, 50.1% would mean a lot of cranky prods, which might be amusing for a while but....
 

FOURGREENFIELDS

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I'd prefer 2/3rds, 50.1% would mean a lot of cranky prods, which might be amusing for a while but....
....then they will engage in their usual ethnic cleaning and sectarian pogroms? If the Balkans showed anything it's that the UN and EU will NOT allow this to happen and the War Crimes bodies would hunt down Unionist/Loyalist War Criminals if they tried that stuff. I also can't believe that many Irishmen and women in the rest of the island, in the UK, in the States and around the world would tolerate it either.
 

Mickeymac

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I know this is extremely hypothetical




This was the opening line in your OP clueless.........


I know this is extremely hypothetical

My question.....Why start a thread on something hypothetical not to mention the stupidity of it,,,,go read the GFA ffs.
 

FOURGREENFIELDS

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I know this is extremely hypothetical




This was the opening line in your OP clueless.........





My question.....Why start a thread on something hypothetical not to mention the stupidity of it,,,,go read the GFA ffs.
Maybe there'll be another Curragh mutiny this time at Palace Barracks and another 1912 gun running episode?
 

Mickeymac

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Maybe there'll be another Curragh mutiny this time at Palace Barracks and another 1912 gun running episode?


Indeed sir and maybe pigs will fly, not so long ago, threads like this would have been consigned to the zoo in seconds.....pathetic really.
 

PO'Neill

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Indeed sir and maybe pigs will fly, not so long ago, threads like this would have been consigned to the zoo in seconds.....pathetic really.
Agreed.
 

arsenal

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The opening post had nothing to do with Antrim or Down being allowed to opt-out in the event of Northern Ireland voting yes for reunification and those counties returning no votes,I was just asking as to what sort of yes vote is needed in these areas to allow the west to carry it over the line. Everyone knows that if a border poll is held it will be on the basis of a single national poll for NI on whether to join with Ireland or remain as part of the UK and most reasonable people know that NI will act as one with it all going, or with it all staying.

With census figures showing that catholics outnumber protestants in the other 4 counties and with nationalist parties having much stronger vote shares in the west than in the more british parts of say north down or carrickfergus. I assume that in any border poll in the near future that Antrim as a county will vote overall for no, but Antrim returning a 60% no would mean a successful border poll is very much a possibility but an 75% no vote would leave a mountain for nationalists to overturn in the rest of Ni.
 

vivabrigada

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The opening post had nothing to do with Antrim or Down being allowed to opt-out in the event of Northern Ireland voting yes for reunification and those counties returning no votes,I was just asking as to what sort of yes vote is needed in these areas to allow the west to carry it over the line. Everyone knows that if a border poll is held it will be on the basis of a single national poll for NI on whether to join with Ireland or remain as part of the UK and most reasonable people know that NI will act as one with it all going, or with it all staying.

With census figures showing that catholics outnumber protestants in the other 4 counties and with nationalist parties having much stronger vote shares in the west than in the more british parts of say north down or carrickfergus. I assume that in any border poll in the near future that Antrim as a county will vote overall for no, but Antrim returning a 60% no would mean a successful border poll is very much a possibility but an 75% no vote would leave a mountain for nationalists to overturn in the rest of Ni.
50%+1. That's it.
 

ticketyboo

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I'd prefer 2/3rds, 50.1% would mean a lot of cranky prods, which might be amusing for a while but....
What YOU'd prefer, as John Hume used to say, is of no more use than a ball of roasted snow.....
The INTERNATIONAL agreement is fifty per cent plus one in the six counties......
Nobody is rewriting a hard won and difficult to swallow compromise, and no red herrings regarding over fifty per cent of the unionist vote or a deferral for Down or Antrim or UDI or a NEW stipulation either by you or the DUP or the British to set a new percentage of two thirds or seventy per cent will fly....
Fifty per cent plus one and ratification in the south and the British MUST bring forth enabling legislation....
You can close the thread now......conversation over.....
 

Craigmore..

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Londonderry county without the Cityside is hugely Unionist. People tend to overlook that.
 

michael-mcivor

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Let’s have the border-poll to see the actual crack with the numbers game- if we happen to lose we can give it another go 7 years after the first election - but we will be going to the 2 election with the ‘ we have it ‘ attitude-
 

arsenal

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To be honest Michael I think the UK govt will kind of insist on it being a once in a generation thing with no further poll being held if it failed for another 15 years or so.
 

michael-mcivor

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To be honest Michael I think the UK govt will kind of insist on it being a once in a generation thing with no further poll being held if it failed for another 15 years or so.
It says 7 years in the GFA- the courts will support us no matter what a government says because the people voted for the GFA- it’s all in black and white-
 

silverharp

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What YOU'd prefer, as John Hume used to say, is of no more use than a ball of roasted snow.....
The INTERNATIONAL agreement is fifty per cent plus one in the six counties......
Nobody is rewriting a hard won and difficult to swallow compromise, and no red herrings regarding over fifty per cent of the unionist vote or a deferral for Down or Antrim or UDI or a NEW stipulation either by you or the DUP or the British to set a new percentage of two thirds or seventy per cent will fly....
Fifty per cent plus one and ratification in the south and the British MUST bring forth enabling legislation....
You can close the thread now......conversation over.....
i wont be voting yes if it looks like a shotgun wedding
 

Oliver Cromwell McIvor

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It'll be a cold day in hell before we vote into that multicult hell that is the Free State. Dublin is London-lite. I was down there at a UVF exhibition a couple of years back and stayed in the City. African gangs roaming the streets, Muslim women dressed in bin begs walking 10 paces behind their dress-wearing husbands.

What can you expect when you have a gay Indian as your PM?
 


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