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Northern Ireland's fiscal deficit


DeGaulle 2.0

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I attempted to calculate the annual subsidy received by NI from Britain every year (here) but the figures are actually available from the NI Assembly website. I have started a new thread rather than bury the information in one of the border poll threads.

The link is here: http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/Documents/RaISe/Publications/2012/finance_personnel/19712.pdf

The figures show that in 2010/11 the NI Fiscal Deficit was 10.5 billion pounds (approx 12.5 billion euro). In population terms, this would be the equivalent to a 32 billion deficit in the South.

Other useful related links:-
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/pesa_complete_2012.pdf
Tax Revenue Sources in UK - Economics Blog
BBC News - Northern Ireland receives most public money per head in UK
http://www.isitfair.co.uk/reports/public/oe ukpublicfinance.pdf (from 2006/7 but with a detailed analysis)
http://pwc.blogs.com/files/nieo-august-2012.pdf
NISRA - Economic Statistics

The deficit has increased rapidly in the last few years, from 6.3 billion in 2006/7 to 10.5 billion in 2010/11.

Unemployment in NI is just under 8% but this is somewhat misleading as there is a high rate of economic inactivity among 16-64 year-olds compared to other UK areas.

How should this deficit be addressed?
 


C

Castle Ray

Answer: a united ireland and an irish language act.

Works for every other problem including adverse weather conditions apparently.
 

InsideImDancing

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I attempted to calculate the annual subsidy received by NI from Britain every year (here) but the figures are actually available from the NI Assembly website. I have started a new thread rather than bury the information in one of the border poll threads.

The link is here: http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/Documents/RaISe/Publications/2012/finance_personnel/19712.pdf

The figures show that in 2010/11 the NI Fiscal Deficit was 10.5 billion pounds (approx 12.5 billion euro). In population terms, this would be the equivalent to a 32 billion deficit in the South.

Other useful related links:-
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/pesa_complete_2012.pdf
Tax Revenue Sources in UK - Economics Blog
BBC News - Northern Ireland receives most public money per head in UK
http://www.isitfair.co.uk/reports/public/oe ukpublicfinance.pdf (from 2006/7 but with a detailed analysis)
http://pwc.blogs.com/files/nieo-august-2012.pdf
NISRA - Economic Statistics

The deficit has increased rapidly in the last few years, from 6.3 billion in 2006/7 to 10.5 billion in 2010/11.

Unemployment in NI is just under 8% but this is somewhat misleading as there is a high rate of economic inactivity among 16-64 year-olds compared to other UK areas.

How should this deficit be addressed?
Gerry Adams recently said on a BBC program that according to figures that they got from NI's department of finance, the figure is closer to 7 billion. He said that the British put in around 17 billion, and they take out up to 12 billion. There is a lot of anomalies here my friend that need to be sorted out. I have been arguing for a while for the Brits to release all figures that are unique to NI. They release a lot of UK-wide figures and I'm not even sure if they release accurate, NI specific, emigration figures.

How to deal with it?

An Ireland economy working together as one instead of competing against each other.

Merging of infrastructure, health, police, judiciary etc etc.

Reintegration of ROI peripheral areas with their natural centres, such as Belfast and Derry.

Concentrate on two economic centres (Dublin and Belfast) and avoid the disaster of the London centric British economy.

Lower the corporation tax and flying duties immediately in the north.

Stop money leaving the country in border areas through roaming charges etc.

A real-life economy in the north where the people have real power and responsibility.

A transition period, backed by the EU including the British, and others including the US, in order for the people to negotiate, to get the best stuff from both economies.

Far from easy, but good chit rarely is, and trust me the superior Ireland is good chit in comparison to the two current states. Look at rugby and Football for a clear example.
 

physicist

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Messages
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Answer: a united ireland and an irish language act.

Works for every other problem including adverse weather conditions apparently.
Níorbh fhéidir Sharia Dlí an fiach ollmhór a deireadh? Níor mhaith liom é a úsáid.
 

InsideImDancing

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Are you a member of FG OP?
 

cmca1

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On the point of removing duplication in the provision of public services in a united Ireland, money saved would need to be reinvested in the economy to increase private sector employment, particularly as there would be job losses whilst cutting the level of bureaucracy.

The Northern economy is already heavily dependent on the public sector.

Perhaps additional incentives should be made to potential investors by lowering corporation tax below the level of the rest of Ireland in the likes of the North-west and Belfast to initially address this private sector hole.
 

eskrimador

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We, the people of Ulster demand that the people of England give us money they cannot afford, as cancer services are cut, as much needed social services are cut, as soldiers get their p45s..... That they give us their money and w do so because.......well, were Ulster
 

cmca1

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The northern economy seriously needs to be addressed. Interesting that even Mervyn King, ougoing Governor of the Bank of England is calling for political leadership a Stormont to sort economic issues.

There are economic benefits of being in the UK, yet Northern Ireland has not made the most of them.

Ironic how unionism argued that Belfast would lose its economic strength with a Dublin government, yet with changes in industry and employment over the decades since partition, Belfast has not done as well as it should within the UK, especially when compared to the South East and London where our economic policy is set.
 

DeGaulle 2.0

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Gerry Adams recently said on a BBC program that according to figures that they got from NI's department of finance, the figure is closer to 7 billion. He said that the British put in around 17 billion, and they take out up to 12 billion. There is a lot of anomalies here my friend that need to be sorted out. I have been arguing for a while for the Brits to release all figures that are unique to NI. They release a lot of UK-wide figures and I'm not even sure if they release accurate, NI specific, emigration figures.
The 10.5 billion comes from the NI dept of finance - see the link. The identifiable spend is well over 19 billion, not 17 billion, and that excludes items that are not specific to one region such as defence, foreign aid, etc. (And yes Ireland won't be sending an army to Afghanistan but there will still be a requirement for a larger army).
How to deal with it?

An Ireland economy working together as one instead of competing against each other.
That doesn't make sense - companiees have to compete whether there is a border or not.
Merging of infrastructure, health, police, judiciary etc etc.
Like the Croke Park deal - how much has that saved per year?
Reintegration of ROI peripheral areas with their natural centres, such as Belfast and Derry.
Really, Donegal is the only major beneficiary here.
Concentrate on two economic centres (Dublin and Belfast) and avoid the disaster of the London centric British economy.
Yes it would be great to have 2 cities of similar size as friendly rivals and there undoubtedly some synergies but there it still doesn't address the real issue. 10.5 billion.
Lower the corporation tax and flying duties immediately in the north.
Lowering corporation tax will not help to close the deficit
Stop money leaving the country in border areas through roaming charges etc.
A real-life economy in the north where the people have real power and responsibility.
That doesn't actually mean anything
A transition period, backed by the EU including the British, and others including the US, in order for the people to negotiate, to get the best stuff from both economies.
Undoubtedly there will be assistance (a bit like our bailout) but there will probably be severe cutbacks required.
Far from easy, but good chit rarely is, and trust me the superior Ireland is good chit in comparison to the two current states. Look at rugby and Football for a clear example.
"Trust me" isn't an argument.
Pretending the subsidy isn't there isn't an answer.

Looking at the figures, possibly the NI economy will adjust partially in time with the public service shrinking as people retire - assuming that they were padded during the Troubles. This might make the problem much smaller by the time there is a nationalist majority. I think though that public spending in the North may be much higher than in the South and that is going to be a really difficult problem to address, even with assistance from a transition program. How much will such a transition program require?
 

DeGaulle 2.0

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The current deficit of £10.5 billion is actually irrelevant as far as Irish unification is concerned. There is not going to be a referendum with any chance of achieving unity for 20 to 30 years. Because the deficit is covered by the UK government, it is not building up a NI-specific debt that would belong to a united Ireland. (Would we have to take on NI's share of the UK national debit? How much would it be?) The problem (from a nationalist point of view) does need to be addressed over the next 20 years.

Ironically, this means the parties allegedly of the left, SDLP and SF, need to ensure cutbacks and the parties of the right, DUP and UUP, need to prolong the subsidies.
 

cmca1

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Pretending the subsidy isn't there isn't an answer.

Looking at the figures, possibly the NI economy will adjust partially in time with the public service shrinking as people retire - assuming that they were padded during the Troubles. This might make the problem much smaller by the time there is a nationalist majority. I think though that public spending in the North may be much higher than in the South and that is going to be a really difficult problem to address, even with assistance from a transition program. How much will such a transition program require?
On the issue of competition, with a uniform corporation rate around the UK higher than that of RoI, instability visible on the streets in Belfast, a small market in NI, small pool of skilled labour in NI(compared to the likes of London or Dublin) why would leading global businesses want to set up in the North?

The south is competing with the north in terms of foreign direct investment on top of the fact that the rest of the UK is a much better environment for business than NI already. If we have a corporate tax rate which is the same as or lower than the likes of Dublin within one economic framework, the North becomes competitive against the rest of the Uk and the South. Therefore, more investment in the private sector would occur and would hopefully fill some of the gap left by public sector cuts.

Furthermore, lowering the corporation tax would result in less revenue for the government initially, but with increased investment you would have more firms paying corporation tax, more employment and therefore more income tax, people would be earning more money and therefore spending more, resulting in increased VAT, over time the economic benefits would level the initial loss.

In terms of the merging of infrastructure and the removal of duplication in the provision of public services, we are currently governed by two civil services, different health authorities, different education boards etc and the level of waste on having these two systems would therefore be cut where there was one uniform system for the whole island.
 

InsideImDancing

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Pretending the subsidy isn't there isn't an answer.

Looking at the figures, possibly the NI economy will adjust partially in time with the public service shrinking as people retire - assuming that they were padded during the Troubles. This might make the problem much smaller by the time there is a nationalist majority. I think though that public spending in the North may be much higher than in the South and that is going to be a really difficult problem to address, even with assistance from a transition program. How much will such a transition program require?
At least quote the fek'n thing right so I can respond to you.:) You sound like you know an awful lot of stuff my friend, with your half-liner replies you have basically provided zero substance to any of your rebuttals. You just sound like you think you are the pharaoh and you have destroyed my arguments with a few half-witted, half-liners, and you didn't even quote the bleedin' thing right.:)

Your arguments are quality though; "possibly the NI economy will adjust partially in time with the public service shrinking as people retire"


fs please.
 
C

Castle Ray

The current deficit of £10.5 billion is actually irrelevant as far as Irish unification is concerned. There is not going to be a referendum with any chance of achieving unity for 20 to 30 years. Because the deficit is covered by the UK government, it is not building up a NI-specific debt that would belong to a united Ireland. (Would we have to take on NI's share of the UK national debit? How much would it be?) The problem (from a nationalist point of view) does need to be addressed over the next 20 years.

Ironically, this means the parties allegedly of the left, SDLP and SF, need to ensure cutbacks and the parties of the right, DUP and UUP, need to prolong the subsidies.
A good point. I'm pro-Union but right of centre. I'd cut the public sector to the right size yet that's a view that would make a UI more likely, yet I hear a SF minster today moaning about British cuts but they're seeking a UI. Irony indeed.
 

Mattarigna

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A good point. I'm pro-Union but right of centre. I'd cut the public sector to the right size yet that's a view that would make a UI more likely, yet I hear a SF minster today moaning about British cuts but they're seeking a UI. Irony indeed.
It's a pity that Nationalists in the North are not providing better leadership. NI in it's current state will act as an Albatross in any new UI state, so it does need to be dealt with, along with creating a common civic space. If the Irish government backed the North's campaign to fix corporation tax to the same level as the ROI, it would be a positive step foward for the North in terms of economic development, which is behind even the poorer regions in the ROI.
 

Mattarigna

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Isn't it easy to be a deluded Nat?! :lol:
"Nat"? Are you comparing Nationalists to the party which controlled South Africa during the Apartheid era? Some Nationalists/Republicans would say that it would be more appliable to Loyalism and large sections of Unionism.
 

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