Northern Ireland’s position within the UK “on a knife edge”

ruserious

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The latest LucidTalk poll out this morning has support for the Union and a United Ireland on a virtual tie within the margin of error.

"It increasingly looks like support for the current constitutional arrangements is on a knife-edge. That is simply remarkable. It shakes the legitimacy of the foundations of the existing constitutional order."
Professor Colin Harvey
 


Dame_Enda

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The polls are all over the place on this question. The Lucid and Lord Ashcroft polls tend to show higher support, whereas the other poll a few days ago carried out over a 6 week period in Liverpool found lower support.

Having said that, Lucid got the NI elections right. Also support for unity is at 50% among 18-44 yr olds in the poll.

I think given the demographics, eventual unity is inevitable. But it must be meticulously planned for. After yes votes in referendums on both sides of the border, we may need a transition period to gradually allow the Republic to replace the subsidy, without causing a shock to our economy. We also need to talk to the EU and Irish America about investment in the Six Counties.

I would support a devolved or federal arrangement, but with redrawing of the border in areas where there is overwhelming demand for direct rule from Dublin.
 
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Itsalaugh

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Any 80%+ turnout in the ref when it comes in 3-5 years time will give 60% Yes for reunification.
The only way the Union remains is a low turnout where the diehard vote comes. But above 70% and its an affirmative.
 

ruserious

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Any 80%+ turnout in the ref when it comes in 3-5 years time will give 60% Yes for reunification.
The only way the Union remains is a low turnout where the diehard vote comes. But above 70% and its an affirmative.
Yep. Every year that passes, tips it in our favour too.
 

between the bridges

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Pffft, polls, imagine starting an OP on wan...
 

Lord Talbot

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There'll be plenty more poles post Brexit.

Uh, I mean polls.
 

between the bridges

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Anyways buried in the poll tis this wee nugget...

Asked whether there should be a border poll – now, at some stage in the future, or never – 39.4% of NI respondents said yes, 22.7% said no, 36.1% said maybe, but only at some stage in the future, and 1.8% didn't know.
 

mr_anderson

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Any 80%+ turnout in the ref when it comes in 3-5 years time will give 60% Yes for reunification.
The only way the Union remains is a low turnout where the diehard vote comes. But above 70% and its an affirmative.
Is that in the south ?

Because the north is 30 years away from voting for a UI.

Even once theres a 50/50 population split, a larger percentage of the Unionist community want to remain than the proportion of Nationalists who want a UI.

Barring a black swan event, you're going to have to wait for a 60/40 Nationalist majority to attain even a sliver of success.
 

Watcher2

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When someone is asked if they would want a UI, in the back of their minds is the violence and killings during the troubles. That's what brought such a large amount of support for the GFA. Now, fast forward a couple decades and show people exactly what a UI would look like (still to be defined) and what it would mean to them. You will get a very, very different view and vote.

Looking at the numbers, NI costs anywhere between 6-10bn pounds. Estimates differ. But once the 6 combine with the 26, the cost structures of the 26 will kick in and the costs will skyrocket because of the mismanagement of the 26 over the decades.

Then look at the violence which will inevitably erupt from unionist corners who don't want to be ruled in a UI. Do you think they will take the change lying down? If you do, you are delusional.

Then look at the years or dysfunction from unionist leaders. Think about Arlene and the disruption she will cause.

fvck me, a UI is a thunderously bad idea.
 

Sync

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Jeeeeesus:
LucidTalk’s Northern Ireland (NI) Opinion Panel now has over 13,000 members and is regularly polled and surveyed to obtain views and opinions on a whole range issues e.g. politics, business, consumer, health etc. We are constantly updating and refreshing our Opinion Panel with new members to assist our research projects, and we would like to hear from you if you would like to join our NI Opinion Panel. If you do join you will collect credits for each poll-survey you complete, and earn points to be used to enter our bi-annual draws for prizes eg shopping vouchers, restaurant awards etc.
 

Uganda

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When someone is asked if they would want a UI, in the back of their minds is the violence and killings during the troubles. That's what brought such a large amount of support for the GFA. Now, fast forward a couple decades and show people exactly what a UI would look like (still to be defined) and what it would mean to them. You will get a very, very different view and vote.

Looking at the numbers, NI costs anywhere between 6-10bn pounds. Estimates differ. But once the 6 combine with the 26, the cost structures of the 26 will kick in and the costs will skyrocket because of the mismanagement of the 26 over the decades.

Then look at the violence which will inevitably erupt from unionist corners who don't want to be ruled in a UI. Do you think they will take the change lying down? If you do, you are delusional.

Then look at the years or dysfunction from unionist leaders. Think about Arlene and the disruption she will cause.

fvck me, a UI is a thunderously bad idea.
Yes, but against all that there are a few mitigating factors

1. The amount required will not fall exclusively on us. The Brits will make a contribution, as will the eu, as will the USA. So the net cost to us will be much less.

2. The benefits will also, in time begin to flow through. As an example - if Derry were to become as vibrant a city as Galway the additional economic activity.

The big issue IMHO is not financial - its cultural. How could 1 million unionists be persuaded that they would, in the round be better off, throwing their lot in with us.

And also what would all that involve? If it means simply that the “6” becomes incorporated into the “26” with same anthem, flag, etc etc, complete with support for gobshytes who go around the place shouting “up the ra”, then its a non-starter.
 

Politics matters

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When someone is asked if they would want a UI, in the back of their minds is the violence and killings during the troubles. That's what brought such a large amount of support for the GFA. Now, fast forward a couple decades and show people exactly what a UI would look like (still to be defined) and what it would mean to them. You will get a very, very different view and vote.

Looking at the numbers, NI costs anywhere between 6-10bn pounds. Estimates differ. But once the 6 combine with the 26, the cost structures of the 26 will kick in and the costs will skyrocket because of the mismanagement of the 26 over the decades.

Then look at the violence which will inevitably erupt from unionist corners who don't want to be ruled in a UI. Do you think they will take the change lying down? If you do, you are delusional.

Then look at the years or dysfunction from unionist leaders. Think about Arlene and the disruption she will cause.

fvck me, a UI is a thunderously bad idea.
We will be ready for Loyalist paramilitaries.

The Brits will have to pay us compensation anyway, they created the conditions to partition our country, they can pick up the tab.
 

Paddyc

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We will be ready for Loyalist paramilitaries.

The Brits will have to pay us compensation anyway, they created the conditions to partition our country, they can pick up the tab.
We can dust off DUP manifestos from the 1970s and '80s and follow their proposals in dealing with terrorism 'with the gloves off'.
 

Ardillaun

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We will be ready for Loyalist paramilitaries.
With our ‘security forces’, such as they are, or what? I’m guessing most of us would rather not see anything too Yugoslavian.

The Brits will have to pay us compensation anyway, they created the conditions to partition our country, they can pick up the tab.
Brexit Britain may not see things that way. There’ll be a strong faction for leaving NI without fully paying the bill and letting the Paddies sort things out themselves.
 
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james toney

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Yes, but against all that there are a few mitigating factors

1. The amount required will not fall exclusively on us. The Brits will make a contribution, as will the eu, as will the USA. So the net cost to us will be much less.

2. The benefits will also, in time begin to flow through. As an example - if Derry were to become as vibrant a city as Galway the additional economic activity.

The big issue IMHO is not financial - its cultural. How could 1 million unionists be persuaded that they would, in the round be better off, throwing their lot in with us.

And also what would all that involve? If it means simply that the “6” becomes incorporated into the “26” with same anthem, flag, etc etc, complete with support for gobshytes who go around the place shouting “up the ra”, then its a non-starter.
Bullshit...everything is financial to the unionists.... the 'cultural' sop is used by idiots to cover that...along with them shouting 'no surrender'....supported by unionists..along with some in FG/FF.
 
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michael-mcivor

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We will be ready for Loyalist paramilitaries.
Already mostly largely dealt with- The UVF has decommissioned and the UFF LVF actually handed their weapon’s over to the PSNI- plus the UDR / RIR was removed from our streets- a lot of Intell / Guns / transport in and away from the target came from those uniformed hoods-

bring on the border-poll- who is afraid of democracy-
 

Watcher2

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Yes, but against all that there are a few mitigating factors

1. The amount required will not fall exclusively on us. The Brits will make a contribution, as will the eu, as will the USA. So the net cost to us will be much less.

2. The benefits will also, in time begin to flow through. As an example - if Derry were to become as vibrant a city as Galway the additional economic activity.

The big issue IMHO is not financial - its cultural. How could 1 million unionists be persuaded that they would, in the round be better off, throwing their lot in with us.

And also what would all that involve? If it means simply that the “6” becomes incorporated into the “26” with same anthem, flag, etc etc, complete with support for gobshytes who go around the place shouting “up the ra”, then its a non-starter.
We will never (or at least for a long, long time) be united. Sure, the 26 may join with the six, but the peoples will never be united. Read the NI forum threads.
 

firefly123

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I assume this thread will now descend in to a debate on the eternally inflating subvention followed by an escalation into the Lolocalypse.

You cant afford us cos we are sh1t and we will blow up everything!

It's a fairly pathetic way to be really isnt it.


Oh look. It already has.
 

Ireniall

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When someone is asked if they would want a UI, in the back of their minds is the violence and killings during the troubles. That's what brought such a large amount of support for the GFA. Now, fast forward a couple decades and show people exactly what a UI would look like (still to be defined) and what it would mean to them. You will get a very, very different view and vote.

Looking at the numbers, NI costs anywhere between 6-10bn pounds. Estimates differ. But once the 6 combine with the 26, the cost structures of the 26 will kick in and the costs will skyrocket because of the mismanagement of the 26 over the decades.

Then look at the violence which will inevitably erupt from unionist corners who don't want to be ruled in a UI. Do you think they will take the change lying down? If you do, you are delusional.

Then look at the years or dysfunction from unionist leaders. Think about Arlene and the disruption she will cause.

fvck me, a UI is a thunderously bad idea.
Sure Arlene will be on the first bus out across the new bridge to Scotland.
 


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