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November 2012 Official Irish retail sales lowest in 10 years. December needs 33% rise to be “best Christmas Sales in several years”.


Cassandra Syndrome

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November 2012 Official Irish retail sales lowest in 10 years. December needs 33% rise to be “best Christmas Sales in several years”.

Recently the Oirish Times reported that the December retail sales were the best in "several years".

Retailers enjoy 'best Christmas in years' - The Irish Times - Mon, Dec 24, 2012

Official retail sales for November 2012 from the CSO released on Monday last, show that it was the worst November for sales in 10 years. Here is the report.

http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/services/2012/rsi_nov2012.pdf

For the Oirish Times article among all the other mainstream media reports about this "bumper" year to be accurate, the month on month increase for December 2012 when officially released in early February requires a 33% increase to match December 2007. That would be a notorious record.

I await with baited breath.....
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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Here's the spike required in December to substantiate their claim

 

Clanrickard

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Recently the Oirish Times reported that the December retail sales were the best in "several years".

Retailers enjoy 'best Christmas in years' - The Irish Times - Mon, Dec 24, 2012

Official retail sales for November 2012 from the CSO released on Monday last, show that it was the worst November for sales in 10 years. Here is the report.

http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/services/2012/rsi_nov2012.pdf

For the Oirish Times article among all the other mainstream media reports about this "bumper" year to be accurate, the month on month increase for December 2012 when officially released in early February requires a 33% increase to match December 2007. That would be a notorious record.

I await with baited breath.....
Being in retail this doesn't surprise me one bit. The spinning on this was so OTT as to be laughable.
 

Keith-M

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Here's the spike required in December to substantiate their claim


You need to look at retail sales on a wider base than just one month, but that graph tells a story on how far back we've fallen. You need to look a quarter (at a minimum).

In November/December things like weather conditions play a big part and also the fact that there were three weekends in December prior to Christmas in 2011 and four weekends before Christmas in 2012.
 

Howya

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looking at the graph I think the comparisons will be made to 2009 - 2010 - 2011....much easier hurdle (and did you see Retail sector asking protest marches to stay away from the city centre).
 

Watcher2

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Even the retailers were spinning boohoo, poor me stories. Granted this is second hand as far as stories go, but I heard of a retailer saying that 2012 Christmas Eve was his worst Christmas Eve ever.....

Of course bufoon, it was a Monday. How was your 22 and 23 December? He didn't mention how well he did those days.
 

Watcher2

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You need to look at retail sales on a wider base than just one month, but that graph tells a story on how far back we've fallen. You need to look a quarter (at a minimum).

In November/December things like weather conditions play a big part and also the fact that there were three weekends in December prior to Christmas in 2011 and four weekends before Christmas in 2012.
How much of that spike was driven by money the spenders did not have?

Jaysus, we all know we needed to change things from back then. It was unsustainable and unrealistic. We all know it was fuelled by credit and what that level of credit has done to this country.

God sake folks, grow up.
 

beolight

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oh dear how is RTE spinning this?

all the good news PR spinning of the last few days, IDA,EI, the NTMA (paying more for loans than available from the troika) all manipulating figures to give the government something positive and then the darned print media does this??

Pat is not going to be happy
 
D

Dylan2010

Lots of interrelated issues, survivor bias on the one hand, tax increases, cross border shopping and the internet suggest retail will be sluggish at best. My wife wanted to buy a receipe book, it was €40 in Easons and €25 from the Book Depository, she bought it off the internet.
 

Fractional Reserve

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Government spoof like no tomorrow .They have to send out good news stories to try and spoof the sheep into thinking everything is A ok . Anyone with a bit of cop knows that the pipe is narrowing and shyte is backing up.
Being in retail this doesn't surprise me one bit. The spinning on this was so OTT as to be laughable.
 

Taxi Driver

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Recently the Oirish Times reported that the December retail sales were the best in "several years".

Retailers enjoy 'best Christmas in years' - The Irish Times - Mon, Dec 24, 2012

Official retail sales for November 2012 from the CSO released on Monday last, show that it was the worst November for sales in 10 years. Here is the report.

http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/services/2012/rsi_nov2012.pdf

For the Oirish Times article among all the other mainstream media reports about this "bumper" year to be accurate, the month on month increase for December 2012 when officially released in early February requires a 33% increase to match December 2007. That would be a notorious record.

I await with baited breath.....
Spinning hard again Cass? The Total Retail Sales graph you provide includes
- motor trades
- fuel
- food
- bars

These make up around 50% of the total and motor trades and bars in particular have fallen sharply in recent years. There was no reports of a jump in them last month.

Surely you can accept that no one was referring to these categories when talking about a boost in Christmas Retail Sales. We still don't know if this was actually real but it doesn't need a 33% rise to be "the best Christmas for retail since 2007". Here is retail sales excluding the four categories above:



The reading for this November was 102.5. The reading to beat for "the best Christmas since 2007" is the 109.6 recorded in December 2008.

I don't know whether that would be reached (I doubt it) but it requires a 7% jump in December to achieve it, not 33% (unless you think they were talking about car sales in the run-up to Christmas).
 

hammer

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You compare it with 2007 :) compare it with 1907 !!!!

November 2012 DOWN on November 2011............FACT
December 2012 retail sales will show an improvement of 3%-5% on December 2011
 

Porkypie

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Analyzer

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It looks like the Dublin media* have been found with their pants on the floor, several meters away from their feet, never mind around their ankles. The money that was spent in December was money that people had been saving in November and October.

*As far as I am aware the Examiner/Sunday Business Post did not get involve in this latest bout of celebratory bullsh!t. Perhaps there is somebody who can verify if this is true. If the Examiner/SBP did go down the Indo/Pravda/IT route of talking everything up, then the entire Irish media are a farce.

It is now highly likely that the SBP/Examiner is the only media outlet in Ireland that can be given any seriousness.
 

hammer

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Thank God for Taxi Driver :)

The chicken lickens, Cassandra, Neutron, turds, crazy pony and SF / FF / ULA would do your head in :)
 

Keith-M

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I understand that the only way December Sales may show an increase was from Online Retail Sales. Take away these figures and retail sales for December will show a minus as they did in the UK for the month of December.

Never Fear that which is Fear Itself, Fear what is unknown and to come.
Indeed, since the increase in VAT I've taken every possible chance to buy online and give this shower of money grabbing incompetents as little tax money as I can. This year any Christmas spending was done on Amazon, before I high-tailed it out of the country for 2.5 weeks for Christmas and New Year. The downside is the double whammy of darkness/************************e weather the air of national depression, when you come back.
 

Keith-M

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Online Retail Sales is where its at.

In the UK December Retail sales for the domestic economy fell sharply year on year for December, only because Online sales had a huge boost did the December retail sales figures actually show a small 1% increase.

I doubt Ireland will be any different.

Online Retail Sales may sound good but overall they are bad for the economy, less jobs, less tax paid, less domestic economic activity.
No, better value for money and less tax money for the government to waste, that's good for everyone.
 

Mad as Fish

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If sales figures were down in November it suggests that people were putting off there Xmas shopping until the last minute, so all those tales of busy shops in December were probably due, if they were true, to people catching up on their purchases rather than spending any more than the previous year.
 
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