Occam's Razor principle could save most of the £40 billion cost of negotiating Brexit and end Brexit uncertainty costs

patslatt

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Occam's Razor principle could save most of the £40 billion cost of negotiating Brexit and end Brexit uncertainty costs

The hardline Brexiteers would leave the EU entirely by leaving the EU's single market and customs union in order to restore full UK sovereignty and freedom to negotiate trade treaties. However,when the economic risks and consequences of Brexit become clear, the majority of Brexiteers would likely settle for a compromise of staying in the single market if the UK got substantial control over negotiation of trade treaties as well as immigration from the EU.Possibly UK immigration could be confined to skilled and professional workers and other workers in short supply whose earnings would not fall below government dictated minimums.

For the EU to make that concession on its principle of free movement of people, it would have to impose some form of discrimination on UK trade in order to discourage other EU members from looking for restrictions on free movement. Under the Occam Razor principle of the simplest solution, the least damaging form of discrimination would be tariffs which should be minimised. Introducing tariffs would require customs checks on UK exports to the EU and EU exports to the UK.

Media reports claim that the UK will need to hire a small army of trade consultants to unpick EU treaties going back decades and negotiate their replacements, with an estimated cost of negotiations of a whopping £40 billion. That cost could largely be avoided by leaving the single market in place. The many advantages of the single market could be kept, such as common technical standards, lack of discrimination in government procurement and protection of intellectual property.

An announcement that the EU and UK would keep the single market except for tariffs would reduce considerable Brexit uncertainty, reducing the related costs of business project delays which are running in billions of pounds.
 


NYCKY

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The UK currently comprises about 1/8th ( a little over 12%) of the EU population but more importantly it's GDP comprises about 1/6th% (a little over 17%) of the EU's.

The EU have less leverage than they they would like to think as the UK is the second largest economy in the EU and one they will want to keep trading with. There are other large populous countries like Poland and Romania but they don't have anything like the per capita purchasing power that the UK has.

The EU has to tread a fine line here, not alienating a rich economy but also discouraging others from following the UK lead.

The UK will also save some money, being relieved of costly EU regulations.

UK and the EU: Trade and economy - BBC News
 

gleeful

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Why would the EU do something illegal to benefit the UK? Its strongly in the EUs interest to see the UK fail.
 

DT123

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Why would the EU do something illegal to benefit the UK? Its strongly in the EUs interest to see the UK fail.
You seem to keep forgetting how much trade the EU does with the UK.

It's not like Ireland or some of the other minnows are leaving.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
While some of the EU's politicians would like to negotiate in a political tantrum over the decision by the UK to leave it is likely that commercial concerns will come to bear over time.

The EU while resenting the blow to the federal Union project will also I think have to consider the reality that many of its commercial concerns will want to trade with the city and sell goods to the UK population and in turn have the UK population buy its goods.

Pressure will come on to EU politicians to find an equitable solution mostly from trade and industry and UK negotiators should be aware of that too.

You know what politics is like- very unimaginative so the politicians will fulminate until sensible work-arounds appear in the form of proposals. Everything other than the now looks impossible to politicians until possibilities are explained to them and from there it is generally a rush to claim they knew of the possibilities all along.
 

Mad as Fish

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Why would the EU do something illegal to benefit the UK? Its strongly in the EUs interest to see the UK fail.
Exactly who do you mean by the EU, the little clique at the top of the pile or the people of Europe?
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
Exactly who do you mean by the EU, the little clique at the top of the pile or the people of Europe?
That question is perhaps the most insightful question I have yet read in the whole debate about the European federal project and the entirety of the Brexit debate.
 

Mad as Fish

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While some of the EU's politicians would like to negotiate in a political tantrum over the decision by the UK to leave it is likely that commercial concerns will come to bear over time.

The EU while resenting the blow to the federal Union project will also I think have to consider the reality that many of its commercial concerns will want to trade with the city and sell goods to the UK population and in turn have the UK population buy its goods.

Pressure will come on to EU politicians to find an equitable solution mostly from trade and industry and UK negotiators should be aware of that too.

You know what politics is like- very unimaginative so the politicians will fulminate until sensible work-arounds appear in the form of proposals. Everything other than the now looks impossible to politicians until possibilities are explained to them and from there it is generally a rush to claim they knew of the possibilities all along.
Exactly as I, and others, have been pointing out for a while now. We have noted that VW sells 125,000 Golfs and Polos into the UK and that the country is a net importer of European food. Are the manufacturers and farmers of Europe going to stand idly by as the production lines slow and the grain stores fill to bursting just because Juncker is having a hissy fit?

No, I don't think so either.
 

gleeful

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Exactly as I, and others, have been pointing out for a while now. We have noted that VW sells 125,000 Golfs and Polos into the UK and that the country is a net importer of European food. Are the manufacturers and farmers of Europe going to stand idly by as the production lines slow and the grain stores fill to bursting just because Juncker is having a hissy fit?

No, I don't think so either.
Are you suggesting that a post-Brexit UK will stop driving cars and stop eating food?
 

Mad as Fish

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Are you suggesting that a post-Brexit UK will stop driving cars and stop eating food?
How you manage to derive that intention from my post is deserving of an explanation methinks.
 

gleeful

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How you manage to derive that intention from my post is deserving of an explanation methinks.
There are plenty of other threads where nutty Alt-Brexiters discuss what the EU should do to dig them out of their hole. Lets just use one of those threads.
 

Mad as Fish

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There are plenty of other threads where nutty Alt-Brexiters discuss what the EU should do to dig them out of their hole. Lets just use one of those threads.
Off you go then.
 

rainmaker

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Its strongly in the EUs interest to see the UK fail.
It isn't and that is an exceptionally over simplistic world view - you are confusing something you personally want to see, with what is best for the EU.
 

firefly123

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You seem to keep forgetting how much trade the EU does with the UK.

It's not like Ireland or some of the other minnows are leaving.
You seem to keep forgetting how much trade the UK (1) does with the EU (27).

We Irish might be Minnows but we have some very big cousins and the UK ain't what she used to be if you want to be all thub thumping about it.
 

firefly123

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Are you suggesting that a post-Brexit UK will stop driving cars and stop eating food?
It really does amaze me how the same posters constantly repeat the idea that the EU not giving the UK what it wants means the EU will not be selling stuff to the UK. There wont be an EMBARGO lads you will just have to pay more for your Polos and prosecco and you will because noone wants to drive a rover or drink elderflower wine.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
It is complete nonsense to suggest that the EU wants to see the UK 'fail'. It would damage the EU economy substantially if that were to happen.

And what does 'fail' mean in terms of a nation? In a nation of 50-60 million there is always likely to be at least a minimum level of economic activity. Even its darkest days of rationing and existing on atlantic convoys when it had no trade at all with an occupied Europe it still survived.

So what if there is some economic turmoil? It is interesting to see the whining of those who think their own sovereignty is so cheap it should be sold cut price to avoid annoying the 'markets'.
 

gleeful

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It is complete nonsense to suggest that the EU wants to see the UK 'fail'. It would damage the EU economy substantially if that were to happen.

And what does 'fail' mean in terms of a nation? In a nation of 50-60 million there is always likely to be at least a minimum level of economic activity. Even its darkest days of rationing and existing on atlantic convoys when it had no trade at all with an occupied Europe it still survived.

So what if there is some economic turmoil? It is interesting to see the whining of those who think their own sovereignty is so cheap it should be sold cut price to avoid annoying the 'markets'.
The UK must be seen to fail in the sense they must have a harsh recession, rising unemployment, loss of status, and decline. The EU needs to ensure this happens - and certainly will not do anything to help the UK avoid it.
 

Trainwreck

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The hardline Brexiteers would leave the EU entirely by leaving the EU's single market and customs union in order to restore full UK sovereignty and freedom to negotiate trade treaties. However,when the economic risks and consequences of Brexit become clear, the majority of Brexiteers would likely settle for a compromise of staying in the single market if the UK got substantial control over negotiation of trade treaties as well as immigration from the EU.Possibly UK immigration could be confined to skilled and professional workers and other workers in short supply whose earnings would not fall below government dictated minimums.

For the EU to make that concession on its principle of free movement of people, it would have to impose some form of discrimination on UK trade in order to discourage other EU members from looking for restrictions on free movement. Under the Occam Razor principle of the simplest solution, the least damaging form of discrimination would be tariffs which should be minimised. Introducing tariffs would require customs checks on UK exports to the EU and EU exports to the UK.

Media reports claim that the UK will need to hire a small army of trade consultants to unpick EU treaties going back decades and negotiate their replacements, with an estimated cost of negotiations of a whopping £40 billion. That cost could largely be avoided by leaving the single market in place. The many advantages of the single market could be kept, such as common technical standards, lack of discrimination in government procurement and protection of intellectual property.

An announcement that the EU and UK would keep the single market except for tariffs would reduce considerable Brexit uncertainty, reducing the related costs of business project delays which are running in billions of pounds.


A whole load of wasted time.

Britain should just go ahead, set their own laws. Allow free movement of goods and services into Britain and then tell the EU to do whatever the fúck their dysfunctional bureaucratic mess of statelet wants.
 

firefly123

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It is complete nonsense to suggest that the EU wants to see the UK 'fail'. It would damage the EU economy substantially if that were to happen.

And what does 'fail' mean in terms of a nation? In a nation of 50-60 million there is always likely to be at least a minimum level of economic activity. Even its darkest days of rationing and existing on atlantic convoys when it had no trade at all with an occupied Europe it still survived.

So what if there is some economic turmoil? It is interesting to see the whining of those who think their own sovereignty is so cheap it should be sold cut price to avoid annoying the 'markets'.
Anyone who wants another nation to 'fail' is a moron.
The thing is Brexiters seem to think the root of all evil in the UK is the EU due to a constant diet of Boris Johnson articles about straight bananas. That people are telling the UK it might be a worse off place for leaving the EU is not wanting it to fail. It is pointing out some painful home truths. There is no brexit plan. It is very clear that is the case. If there was we would have heard it and be about six months into a two year exit process. Posters pointing out these facts does not mean they want the UK to fail (well ok maybe one or two of the nuttier variety). The UK sneezes and we catch cold. There seems to be some delusion that the EU will bow down and give the UK what it wants is simply daft and posters pointing this out does not mean they want the UK to fail.
 


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