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Official slumping Industrial Production figures for 2012 exposes Irish bullish PMI Data as a farce


Cassandra Syndrome

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The CSO recently released Industrial Production figures for Ireland for November 2012. Industrial Production has slumped 6.8% year on year and 14.4% quarter on quarter. This follows a trend from August where Production has dropped 13.5% for September and 17.8% in October. Here's the link for the report;

http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/industry/2012/prodturn_oct2012.pdf

This comprehensive data is inversely proportionate to the PMI (Purchasing Managing Index) figures over the past 6 months which has been proclaimed by the government and the mainstream media and their shills here as the best production figures in Europe and propagated that industry in Ireland is growing and increasing employment much to the credit of our government.

The PMI figures were of course utilised here by one of our resident Pollyanna's (who uses one of the opposition parties as an avatar, quite an example of the Hegelian dialect) to pump up the state propaganda and continue feeding the disinformation even when challenged about the validity of the data by using the official figures. The link for that thread is here;

http://www.politics.ie/forum/economy/194413-irish-manufacturing-soars-euro-area-sinks.html

The CSO official data shows that the quarter up to December 2012 was the worst quarter in 6 years. Soaring? Must be that rocket Noonan was referring to this time last year.....
 
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Ulster-Lad

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The government would not be telling porkies now would they? petunia
 
D

Dylan2010

I guess the out of business companies didnt get their returns in :D
 

Iphonista

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Pharmacy sector is doing poorly owing to the patents cliff.

Other sectors are doing fine. Stop crowing, FFS.
 

sic transit

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Ulster-Lad

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Read the summary in that link and draw your own conclusions.
I did.

The NCB Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) is a composite indicator designed to provide an overall view of activity in the manufacturing sector of the Irish Economy and acts as a leading indicator for the whole economy.

The indicator is derived from individual diffusion indices which measure changes in output, new orders, employment, suppliers’ delivery times and stocks of goods purchased.


A reading of the PMI below 50.0 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally declining; above 50.0, that it is generally expanding. A reading of 50.0 signals no change. The greater the divergence from 50.0, the greater the rate of change signalled by the index. PMI and Purchasing Managers Index are both registered trademarks owned by the Markit Group.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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Pharmacy sector is doing poorly owing to the patents cliff.

Other sectors are doing fine. Stop crowing, FFS.
Maybe if you actually read the NCB PMI reports, you might notice that the weighting of sectors is proportionate to weightings in GNP. Therefore the pharmacy sector has a huge weight in the PMI report.

Stop shilling, ffs.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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Iphonista

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Maybe if you actually read the NCB PMI reports, you might notice that the weighting of sectors is proportionate to weightings in GNP. Therefore the pharmacy sector has a huge weight in the PMI report.

Stop shilling, ffs.
In the past you and your type have dismissed export figures and industrial production as being irrelevant since big pharmacy has a huge effect that paints an overly positive picture since much of those profits go abroad.

So which is it? Should we strip out the pharma figures or not?
 

sic transit

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Activity? As opposed to Production? So what you are saying is that our manufacturing sector is infested with busy fools?
No I am just observing that they measure different things and I'm not sure why you want to compare them. The PMI strikes me as a far more useful tool to draw conclusions from. My impression from your OP is that you just want to highlight something you think no-one else has discovered.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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In the past you and your type have dismissed export figures and industrial production as being irrelevant since big pharmacy has a huge effect that paints an overly positive picture since much of those profits go abroad.

So which is it? Should we strip out the pharma figures or not?
Strip them out if you like. Traditional manufacturing is back to levels last seen 20 years ago. The PMI is supposed to be weighted to the Industrial Production weights. The fact remains the are grossly divergent.
 

crossman

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Maybe if you actually read the NCB PMI reports, you might notice that the weighting of sectors is proportionate to weightings in GNP. Therefore the pharmacy sector has a huge weight in the PMI report.

Stop shilling, ffs.
If PMI weights are based on GNP then pharma will have a much smaller weight than in CSO index since most of their profits are not in GNP.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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No I am just observing that they measure different things and I'm not sure why you want to compare them. The PMI strikes me as a far more useful tool to draw conclusions from. My impression from your OP is that you just want to highlight something you think no-one else has discovered.
What does the PMI measure?
How is it more useful?
 

sic transit

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What does the PMI measure?
How is it more useful?
A measure of economic health is my understanding of it. New orders, inventory levels and employment are fairly useful things to know in terms of planning.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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If PMI weights are based on GNP then pharma will have a much smaller weight than in CSO index since most of their profits are not in GNP.
Sorry, I should have said GDP. Here is the official notes on the data;

The NCB Republic of Ireland Manufacturing PMI™ is based on data compiled
from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in 285
industrial companies. The panel is stratified geographically and by Standard
Industrial Classification (SIC) group, based on the regional, and industry
contribution to GDP.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared
to the previous month based on data collected mid-month. For each of the
indicators the ‘Report’ shows the percentage reporting each response, the net
difference between the number of higher/better responses and lower/worse
responses, and the ‘diffusion’ index. This index is the sum of the positive
responses plus a half of those responding ‘the same’.
Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are
convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change.
An index reading above 50 indicates an overall increase in that variable, below
50 an overall decrease. Markit do not revise underlying survey data after first
publication, but seasonal adjustment factors may be revised from time to time
as appropriate which will affect the seasonally adjusted data series.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) is a composite index based
on five of the individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders
- 0.3, Output - 0.25, Employment - 0.2, Suppliers’ Delivery Times - 0.15,
Stock of Items Purchased - 0.1, with the Delivery Times index inverted
so that it moves in a comparable direction. The PMI is designed to show
a convenient single-figure summary of the health of the manufacturing
sector.
 

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