Opinion Poll 10/06/2017 FG 29 FF 29 SF 18 Ind All 5 Lab 5 Green 5 Sol/PBP 1

PBP voter

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Poll was conducted between 25 May and 6 June

Fianna Fail 29% (+2 points)

Fine Gael 29% (+1)

Sinn Fein 18% (unchanged)

Independent Alliance 5% (+1)

Labour 5% (+1)

Greens 3% (+1)

Solidarity/PBP 1% (unchanged)

Other Independents 9% (-3)

Social Democrats 1% (unchanged)

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2017/0610/881724-poll/
 


ger12

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What's the rationale in spending that money on one poll after another?
 

PBP voter

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What's the rationale in spending that money on one poll after another?
Well I don't think it that expensive? Surveying a 1000 people doesn't strike me as expensive?
 

ger12

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Well I don't think it that expensive? Surveying a 1000 people doesn't strike me as expensive?
How much do you reckon it costs for the newspapers each time they commission a poll?
 

luggage

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How much do you reckon it costs for the newspapers each time they commission a poll?
I think the intention of the poll was to see if FG got a bounce from all the media coverage of the Leadership election. I think the answer is a resounding no.

But in general I agree, all these polls are ridiculous.
 

PBP voter

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How much do you reckon it costs for the newspapers each time they commission a poll?
Maybe they get them on the cheap from the polling companies so they get free advertisement.

Polling is really only a tiny part of what they do.
 

Man or Mouse

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Maybe they get them on the cheap from the polling companies so they get free advertisement.

Polling is really only a tiny part of what they do.
1%?
 

DJP

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What's the rationale in spending that money on one poll after another?
It generates news, and it is not like it is the one paper doing them all the time.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
So the quietest trend in Irish politics continues. FG and FF cannot muster over 60% of support between them with this poll showing them on 29% each. Interestingly it shows them have gained 3% between them which would indicate that together they are bouncing between 55% and 58% overall.

Come the glorious day when they are repeatedly polling together at less than 40%.
 

Mrwoody

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With the pollsters getting it so wrong again on the UK election should they just pack it in and retire, anyone could have come up with those numbers and then give a plus or minus 3% error to cover there arse.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
The polls were all over the place in the UK election it has to be said. I believe YouGuv have been trying out a new polling system which has been recorded as accurate in two elections now.

To be honest I think the polls themselves are just the set up for the political journos. If the results reflect the major polls they can write an article demanding to know why the party leaders didn't reflect on them.

If the polls are wrong there is loads of employment for them analysing just what went wrong.

You really didn't need to be a genius to recognise that there were lots of young people suddenly sitting up and taking notice of politics after the Brexit shock and that there was high voter registration levels among young voters this time around.

The polls may not have picked up on that at all with their representative sampling which in many cases won't even have included one of these newly registered voters.
 

venusian

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I think the intention of the poll was to see if FG got a bounce from all the media coverage of the Leadership election. I think the answer is a resounding no.

But in general I agree, all these polls are ridiculous.
The answer to FG by the majority of the electorate is a resounding NO! Excellent that despite the media saturation about swivel eyed right wing loon Varadkar taking on BelEnda's mantle as Mehole Martin's pet kock$ucker there has been zero "bounce" for FG. :)
 

hiding behind a poster

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Well I don't think it that expensive? Surveying a 1000 people doesn't strike me as expensive?
It's quite expensive, because to do it properly you have to contact far more than 1,000 voters in order to get a representative sample. Having said that, B&A take about ten days to carry out their polls, which suggests they haven't got that many staff on the job.

And why? Polls sell papers.
 

hiding behind a poster

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So the quietest trend in Irish politics continues. FG and FF cannot muster over 60% of support between them with this poll showing them on 29% each. Interestingly it shows them have gained 3% between them which would indicate that together they are bouncing between 55% and 58% overall.

Come the glorious day when they are repeatedly polling together at less than 40%.
Given that they polled 50% between them at the last election, the trend is not your friend.
 

hiding behind a poster

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The polls were all over the place in the UK election it has to be said. I believe YouGuv have been trying out a new polling system which has been recorded as accurate in two elections now.

To be honest I think the polls themselves are just the set up for the political journos. If the results reflect the major polls they can write an article demanding to know why the party leaders didn't reflect on them.

If the polls are wrong there is loads of employment for them analysing just what went wrong.

You really didn't need to be a genius to recognise that there were lots of young people suddenly sitting up and taking notice of politics after the Brexit shock and that there was high voter registration levels among young voters this time around.

The polls may not have picked up on that at all with their representative sampling which in many cases won't even have included one of these newly registered voters.
They're included alright, relative to their percentage of the general population. The key question is whether or not they'll actually vote, and in that regard pollsters have to be guided by data and past experience. If a polling company is going to adjust its model to allow for higher turnout among a particular demographic, it has to have data to back the theory up. They can't just guess.
 

mangaire2

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diisapointing news I would think for the FG bots, with their new leader & all the publicity they've been getting recently.
otherwise - steady as she goes.
Labour will be delighted with their 25% increase in support,
which brings them up to ..... ahem ..... 5%.
 

Wascurito

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What's the rationale in spending that money on one poll after another?
I wonder what's the rationale in spending money on a poll that straddles rather than coming after such a formative period for FG,
 

Plebian

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It looks like a plausible approximation of the current mood of the country.

FG on a bit of a high because of the leadership contest and FF already at the point that FG have just reached. Their increased combined figure is dependent on the Ind-Others dropping 9% or so. I'd think they could pull as high as 58% combined in a GE as some of the Ind-Others vote last time was a very casual floating vote lining up behind the in thing.

A small increase for SF and a small decrease for Labour are likely and balance each other out but SF will pull a percent or two from a dwindling Ind-Others vote.

It's early days yet for Leo, if he impresses then FG could hit this 29% in a GE, if he becomes a symbol of arrogance then FG will do well to match their GE 2016 vote.
 


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