Opinion poll Donegal South-West

DJP

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
12,825
Website
darrenjprior.blogspot.com
Twitter
https://twitter.com/DarrenJPrior
I read today in a Donegal paper, I forget which though, that an opinion poll carried out in the constituency has Brian Ó Domhnaill taking the seat with Fine Gael's candidate coming in forth. Does anyone have any more knowledge about the results of this poll???
 


TommyO'Brien

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 14, 2009
Messages
12,132
So you say there is a poll, but don't know its contents and don't have a link! :rolleyes:

Wow.

BTW a tip - Constituency polls are totally discredited in Ireland. No one anywhere takes them seriously. Tons of them were done during the 2007 general election. They had a 98% inaccuracy rate. Some of them were so wrong as to be hilarious. One of the most notorious saw a poll for the Meath Chronicle predict FG would lose the Bruton seat in the by-election, one week before they easily won it. :eek: A poll in Dublin South predicted Alex White would win the seat. George Lee did in a landslide. A poll in Meath East in 2007 predicted Dominic Hannigan of Labour would top the poll. He didn't even win a seat. Six out of seven polls in the Cork and neighbouring constituencies were out by over 20%. The Galway polls were all wrong. A Dublin Central poll predicted in the by-election that Mary Lou and Patricia McKenna would battle for the seat and were "too close to call". McKenna in reality was crushed, and Mary Lou did poorly. Most comically, one poll said Eamon Gilmore was going to lose his seat in 2002. :rolleyes:

So at this stage no-one anywhere takes the slightest heed of constituency polls. They have an appalling record. They are good for a laugh. That is about all.
 

DJP

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
12,825
Website
darrenjprior.blogspot.com
Twitter
https://twitter.com/DarrenJPrior
So you say there is a poll, but don't know its contents and don't have a link! :rolleyes:

Wow.
That's why I asked if anyone else had anymore knowledge. Pearse Doherty is second I think in it.
 

SFInbhear

Well-known member
Joined
May 11, 2009
Messages
443
It was in Thursday's Democrat, and probably todays too. It has Doherty and O'Domhnaill kneck on kneck, with McBrearty third and O'Neill behind him. It was an internal Fine Gael poll.
 

dotski_w_

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 28, 2004
Messages
2,474
Website
irishpollingreport.wordpress.com
So you say there is a poll, but don't know its contents and don't have a link! :rolleyes:

Wow.

BTW a tip - Constituency polls are totally discredited in Ireland. No one anywhere takes them seriously. Tons of them were done during the 2007 general election. They had a 98% inaccuracy rate. .....

So at this stage no-one anywhere takes the slightest heed of constituency polls. They have an appalling record. They are good for a laugh. That is about all.
Not a fan then, Tommy? ;) 98% inaccuracy rate? I'd be interested in the source for that - or even what it would actually mean (perhaps we had different lecturuers in Mathematics and Statistical Analysis, but tht doesn't appear to have any meaning to me.....!) Are you saying that only 2% of the polls were within the margin of error for every candidate? Because most polls would have an outlier or two anyway, whether national or local.

Interestingly this was leaked by one of your colleagues in FG (it's been suggested Frank Flannery elsewhere), so I'd not be playing the conspiracy theory on this too much.

As it happens, yes, many constituency polls are dubious, particularly when run by a party, but this was run by the party (FG) who are most damaged by it, and so that makes it a bit more credible.

My analysis on this poll, for what it's worth, is at
Fine Gael poll in Donegal SW Irish Polling Report
Basically, if true, FG coming 4th would obviously put them out of the running, and LP's strong showing would put them in with a strong shout of getting elected.
 

dotski_w_

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 28, 2004
Messages
2,474
Website
irishpollingreport.wordpress.com
It was in Thursday's Democrat, and probably todays too. It has Doherty and O'Domhnaill kneck on kneck, with McBrearty third and O'Neill behind him. It was an internal Fine Gael poll.
needless to say, if anyone hears the percentages, we'd love to know.......... (I'll bet even Tommy would read and do the sums...!)
 

SFInbhear

Well-known member
Joined
May 11, 2009
Messages
443
Not a fan then, Tommy? ;) 98% inaccuracy rate? I'd be interested in the source for that - or even what it would actually mean (perhaps we had different lecturuers in Mathematics and Statistical Analysis, but tht doesn't appear to have any meaning to me.....!) Are you saying that only 2% of the polls were within the margin of error for every candidate? Because most polls would have an outlier or two anyway, whether national or local.

Interestingly this was leaked by one of your colleagues in FG (it's been suggested Frank Flannery elsewhere), so I'd not be playing the conspiracy theory on this too much.

As it happens, yes, many constituency polls are dubious, particularly when run by a party, but this was run by the party (FG) who are most damaged by it, and so that makes it a bit more credible.

My analysis on this poll, for what it's worth, is at
Fine Gael poll in Donegal SW Irish Polling Report
Basically, if true, FG coming 4th would obviously put them out of the running, and LP's strong showing would put them in with a strong shout of getting elected.
To my knowledge, the poll was leaked by a Fine Gael member in the Donegal SW area. The paper contacted a Fine Gael supporter who confirmed the poll's findings.
 

Follower

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 12, 2009
Messages
935
Been doing some asking around ... and there are a number of rumours doing the rounds in S. Donegal

One is that this "poll" story is a complete fabrication. The Donegal Democrat don't seem to be able to substantiate it with hard evidence.

A second is that national and/or local anti-Kenny dissidents fabricated it and spun it to the media it in order to embarrass him prior to his visit to the constituency this weekend. The Democrat today seemed to insinuate that his visit was some sort of fire brigade measure which wasn't the case given that it was for pre-planned by-election event in Donegal town!

Yet another rumour is that some local wag spun it as a wind-up to the journalist concerned and he rain with it (lol :rolleyes:!).... which if true, is poor show on the part of what is generally regarded as a reputable regional newspaper.

As for O Neill's standing ... he's very well regarded in FG and in the county. He will gain a huge young vote as a consequence of his involvement in sports media, the international Rory Gallagher Festival and other local organisations. He has also been to the fore in the attempts to save cancer services in Sligo. He has recently secured guarantees with regard to the future of the Rock Home in Ballyshannon.

O Domhnail and Doherty are also well regarded but don't have a strong enough base in larger population centres such as Donegal town, Ballyshannon, Bundoran.
(O Neill drew huge cross party support in these areas in the last local election..) Their (O Domhnail/Doherty) support base is predominantly rural and the cohort of voting age (based on the 2006 census) doesn't stack up against the big three southern towns. (and their voting inhabitants will vote for the local man regardless of party politics .... they'd be fools not to given the inaction of the present FF incumbent on various issues!)

In addition, the O Domhnail / Doherty vote will be split by virtue of the fact that they come from same general area of the constituency and it is therefore true to say that they are "neck and neck" in this sense. Killybegs is more difficult to guage. McBrearty will probably draw support from Finn Valley (Ballybofey/Stranorlar) but so too will O Neill. People in this area tend to vote FG based on Dinny McGinleys's performance here.

I could be wrong, but my money is on the increasing likelihood that this "poll" was complete fabrication and therefore a non story. However ... the results of an independent poll carried out by one of the reputable pollster organisations such as MRBI or Red Sea would be interesting! :cool:
 

ne0ica

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 22, 2009
Messages
8,140
Been doing some asking around ... and there are a number of rumours doing the rounds in S. Donegal

One is that this "poll" story is a complete fabrication. The Donegal Democrat don't seem to be able to substantiate it with hard evidence.

A second is that national and/or local anti-Kenny dissidents fabricated it and spun it to the media it in order to embarrass him prior to his visit to the constituency this weekend. The Democrat today seemed to insinuate that his visit was some sort of fire brigade measure which wasn't the case given that it was for pre-planned by-election event in Donegal town!

Yet another rumour is that some local wag spun it as a wind-up to the journalist concerned and he rain with it (lol :rolleyes:!).... which if true, is poor show on the part of what is generally regarded as a reputable regional newspaper.

As for O Neill's standing ... he's very well regarded in FG and in the county. He will gain a huge young vote as a consequence of his involvement in sports media, the international Rory Gallagher Festival and other local organisations. He has also been to the fore in the attempts to save cancer services in Sligo. He has recently secured guarantees with regard to the future of the Rock Home in Ballyshannon.

O Domhnail and Doherty are also well regarded but don't have a strong enough base in larger population centres such as Donegal town, Ballyshannon, Bundoran.
(O Neill drew huge cross party support in these areas in the last local election..) Their (O Domhnail/Doherty) support base is predominantly rural and the cohort of voting age (based on the 2006 census) doesn't stack up against the big three southern towns. (and their voting inhabitants will vote for the local man regardless of party politics .... they'd be fools not to given the inaction of the present FF incumbent on various issues!)

In addition, the O Domhnail / Doherty vote will be split by virtue of the fact that they come from same general area of the constituency and it is therefore true to say that they are "neck and neck" in this sense. Killybegs is more difficult to guage. McBrearty will probably draw support from Finn Valley (Ballybofey/Stranorlar) but so too will O Neill. People in this area tend to vote FG based on Dinny McGinleys's performance here.

I could be wrong, but my money is on the increasing likelihood that this "poll" was complete fabrication and therefore a non story. However ... the results of an independent poll carried out by one of the reputable pollster organisations such as MRBI or Red Sea would be interesting! :cool:
People have told me from Donegal South that their money is on Pearse winning it. But as talented as Doherty is, I'm not sure if this is just another case of the SF vote being overestimated. It would be interesting to see how Raphoe man McBearty does given his high media profile.
 

Follower

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 12, 2009
Messages
935
People have told me from Donegal South that their money is on Pearse winning it. But as talented as Doherty is, I'm not sure if this is just another case of the SF vote being overestimated. It would be interesting to see how Raphoe man McBearty does given his high media profile.
Indeed he is talented however he has a tendency to create issues where there are none in order to garner support/publicity (a common SF tactic). For example the recent rhetoric and subsequent protests over suspected closure of letterkenny hospital was based on very thin evidence. Given the hospital's huge catchment area closure is doubtful although rationalisation of services is probably inevitable. SF lack any coherent or strategic economic policy and in the current economic climate voters will tend to lean towards main stream parties given current levels of uncertainty. In addition, it is unlikely that SF will form any part of a coalition in the next government and once again local voters in a by election situation will vote for the party who they think will be in power in the hope that representation on the government side will bring some benefits for the constituency.

As for McBrearty, he had national profile during Morris and Labour are presently riding high, however, as a local politician he has not been very vocal and lacks significant clout. Furthermore, Donegal has traditionally not given labour much support.
 

Murph

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 4, 2009
Messages
3,197
By elections are always about local candidates, not about wishful thinking.

People will also wish to vote for a candidate with balls -the kind that would take the government to task for trying to avoid goving them dail representation.

The only economic polies SF lacks are the present FF/green ones, and since Enda says he will take ten years to sort things out, he is effectively saying he will do what the present lot are doing.

There is nothing inchoherent about stating you will do things redically different -so lets leave it to the people of Donegal South to decide what is and what is not overstated.
 

redger

Active member
Joined
May 21, 2010
Messages
165
Strangely enough, it may not matter whether this was a real or reliable poll, it could have an important effect nonetheless. As was mentioned by several of the posters, in the current climate, all a Labour candidate, and in particular McBrearty, needs to achieve is to be seen as a real contender, to make him very hard to beat.

Whether or not this poll is real, all that matters is that the people of Donegal have read it in the paper. If they read it, and give it any attention, then McBrearty will be seen as having jumped from also-ran into a realistic contender. Other posters have pointed out how he will be a hoover for transfers - each party's supporters will transfer to him in much bigger numbers than to any other contender. Provided just 1 of the other big 3 (FF, FG, SF) is behind him, he will keep getting the bulk of the transfers when each is eliminated, which will be there or thereabouts in always putting him ahead of one of the others, who will then be eliminated and put him ahead of the next lowest, ad nauseum.

All he has to do is to be seen as a contender, and to use that position to go on the radio to discuss it, and how he is now the favourite to win etc, which will generate more newspaper articles, which give him more attention, which makes him more of a contender, round and round again. Provided he gets on his bike and makes the most of the opportunity, which he seems to be good at.

All based on the original poll which may or may not be real. And he had nothing to do with that poll, so his hands are clean.

Interesting days ahead
 

charley

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 3, 2009
Messages
1,247
Been doing some asking around ... and there are a number of rumours doing the rounds in S. Donegal

One is that this "poll" story is a complete fabrication. The Donegal Democrat don't seem to be able to substantiate it with hard evidence.

A second is that national and/or local anti-Kenny dissidents fabricated it and spun it to the media it in order to embarrass him prior to his visit to the constituency this weekend. The Democrat today seemed to insinuate that his visit was some sort of fire brigade measure which wasn't the case given that it was for pre-planned by-election event in Donegal town!

Yet another rumour is that some local wag spun it as a wind-up to the journalist concerned and he rain with it (lol :rolleyes:!).... which if true, is poor show on the part of what is generally regarded as a reputable regional newspaper.

As for O Neill's standing ... he's very well regarded in FG and in the county. He will gain a huge young vote as a consequence of his involvement in sports media, the international Rory Gallagher Festival and other local organisations. He has also been to the fore in the attempts to save cancer services in Sligo. He has recently secured guarantees with regard to the future of the Rock Home in Ballyshannon.

O Domhnail and Doherty are also well regarded but don't have a strong enough base in larger population centres such as Donegal town, Ballyshannon, Bundoran.
(O Neill drew huge cross party support in these areas in the last local election..) Their (O Domhnail/Doherty) support base is predominantly rural and the cohort of voting age (based on the 2006 census) doesn't stack up against the big three southern towns. (and their voting inhabitants will vote for the local man regardless of party politics .... they'd be fools not to given the inaction of the present FF incumbent on various issues!)

In addition, the O Domhnail / Doherty vote will be split by virtue of the fact that they come from same general area of the constituency and it is therefore true to say that they are "neck and neck" in this sense. Killybegs is more difficult to guage. McBrearty will probably draw support from Finn Valley (Ballybofey/Stranorlar) but so too will O Neill. People in this area tend to vote FG based on Dinny McGinleys's performance here.

I could be wrong, but my money is on the increasing likelihood that this "poll" was complete fabrication and therefore a non story. However ... the results of an independent poll carried out by one of the reputable pollster organisations such as MRBI or Red Sea would be interesting! :cool:
There is little difference in population between the Donegal electoral area and the Glenties electoral area. 2006 figures show Donegal EA with 25,478 people and Glenties EA with 24,134 people. Given that the Stranorlar EA with 15,709 people are more likely to vote with their neighbours in the west rather than south of the Gap FG must admit that O'Neill is the wrong candidate also it is notable that Dinny McGinley has announced that he will run in the next GE.
 

Murph

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 4, 2009
Messages
3,197
Surely what you have just said Redger also applies to Doherty. Where Mcbrearty might have a party bounce, Doherty will have a personal one for being the person who forced the by-election.

It will then be down to which one of them makes the most convincing argument as being the real contender - then again it will be down to the media to make that call!
 

redger

Active member
Joined
May 21, 2010
Messages
165
Surely what you have just said Redger also applies to Doherty. Where Mcbrearty might have a party bounce, Doherty will have a personal one for being the person who forced the by-election.

It will then be down to which one of them makes the most convincing argument as being the real contender - then again it will be down to the media to make that call!
OH yea, that could be right - I was just picking up on a point that a poster made about McBrearty now being a contender. Doherty was always in the running, this could be important for him to establish himself as the inevitible winner. Mind you, its Donegal,beyond my experience, and I do not pretend to know how the voters there look at things.
 

DJP

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
12,825
Website
darrenjprior.blogspot.com
Twitter
https://twitter.com/DarrenJPrior
FG must admit that O'Neill is the wrong candidate also it is notable that Dinny McGinley has announced that he will run in the next GE.
That who will run in the next GE???
 

dotski_w_

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 28, 2004
Messages
2,474
Website
irishpollingreport.wordpress.com
That who will run in the next GE???
That's an important point, and may be behind the FG source for this poll. Normally it wouldn't make sense that it would be leaked - regardless of its accuracy - as it would appear a suicidal move for them. It may be that it's someone close to McGinley who is smart enough to realise that there's only 1 FG seat here, and who might in fact welcome McBrearty winning instead.
 

True Republican

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 3, 2008
Messages
4,049
Any local opinion polls are usually rubbish, who can forget the Meath by election in 2005 when the Meath Chronicle predicted that the FF candidate Shane Cassells would destroy Shane McEntee (FG), of course we all know that McEntee won hands down so I'd be extremely skeptical of that poll, for what its worth I predict a Sinn Fein victory.
 

Ulster-Lad

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 26, 2006
Messages
9,989

DJP

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
12,825
Website
darrenjprior.blogspot.com
Twitter
https://twitter.com/DarrenJPrior
Dinny McGinley will get reelected and for the life of me I can't see Mary Coughlan not getting reelected. So it is between Brian Ó Domhnaill and Pearse Doherty for the last seat in the next GE.
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top