Peak Oil - Fact, Fiction or What?

StirCharles

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We can all agree that 8 years ago, we were not at Peak Oil or anyplace close and those saying we were were idiots and The Field Marshall was correct.
QED
 


Hillmanhunter1

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Try producing a BILLION electric cars without using any fossil fuels. Try it without the underlying support of an economy fueled by FF's. Thus far in the discussion you are refusing to address the problem of scale... yet you make one blank assertion after another.

Plus one the one hand you come across as so very optimistic (starry-eyed, almost) regarding human tech that you give the impression that there is a barely a problem at all (certainly not problematic enough for you to, god forbid, make a few easy sacrifices). Yet earlier you were rather alarmist regarding AGW. So which is it?
Well, firstly, you don't have to produce a billion overnight, but electric cars will replace internal combustion cars as quickly as internal combustion cars replace the horse and buggy.

Bloomberg forecasts that by 2040 (not that far away) 55% of all new cars will be electric, I suspect this is and understatement. And building the new cars will not be done by Tesla or some other new companies - mostly it will be the usual suspects - Volkswagen, Toyota etc. They are well on the way to developing electric cars, comparable in price to existing cars, and with a range of 200 miles +. Take a look at this new Hyundai:
2019 Hyundai Kona Electric Reviews | Hyundai Kona Electric Price, Photos, and Specs | Car and Driver

For the foreseeable future the cars will be produced in plants powered by electricity much of which will be generated by fossil fuel, but as we have noted that is declining and in the medium term coal and oil is being replaced by cleaner LNG.
 

StirCharles

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by fossil fuel, but as we have noted that is declining and in the medium term coal and oil is being replaced by cleaner LNG.
No you lug, Oil production is far greater than it ever was, 101 million barrels per day, compared to 89 million when the idiot started this thread saying we had reached Peak Oil.
 

Hillmanhunter1

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No you lug, Oil production is far greater than it ever was, 101 million barrels per day, compared to 89 million when the idiot started this thread saying we had reached Peak Oil.
Read the thread.

If you did you would know that increased demand from the petrochemicals industry is offsetting declining demand from energy and transport.
 

StirCharles

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You don't say. Anyway, oil is flowing more than ever before and there is no shortage in 2011 and there is still no shortage in 2019.
 

Surkov

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Read the thread.

If you did you would know that increased demand from the petrochemicals industry is offsetting declining demand from energy and transport.
The petrochemical industry includes e.g. car tyres, and the plastic dashboards etc.con all new cars including on the few percents of cars that are electric. As to how many electric cars will be produced over the next decade or two, time will tell, but there are major constraints to consider, for example what raw materials are required to produce the batteries? Of those raw materials how many are non-renewable? If supply of these materials tightens, will that make the battery more expensive.

Can you make say 250,000,000 batteries every year, and year after year, forever?

In 2010 there were about 1 billion cars on the road globally. It's now about 1.4 billion. And the numbers rise at at ever-increasing rate. In another decade it could easily hit 2 billion. If you truly believe that half of that will be electric then that means a billion batteries on the road in 15 years? Lets be optimistic: 10 years? And every few years each of those cars will want a new battery. You could literally end up producing hundreds of millions per annum. Possible? Costly?

Given the scale of change, only a 'true believer' like yourself can be that hyper-confident. The more intelligent position, as always, is 'we don't dare say we know, there are so many variables when forecasting the global picture.'

What level of petrochemicals will be required in producing a billion electric cars? You must know, quite precisely in fact, given your confidence level. Well, what figures have you encountered in your research to date?

Moving on lets consider, once again (as it's something you have failed to really comment on): how much fossil fuel is required to a) build a billion electric cars (batteries not included ;) )? How much fossil fuel will be required to continuously charge a billion batteries? What is your total estimate? After all you said earlier you are even more confident that the authors of the most optimistic reports. So you much already have made the calculations. Well, what are they?

Do we have enough fossil fuels to achieve this MASSIVE transition? At what point, as both population and the total car figures increase, might fossil fuels become more costly as e.g. more and more of the low hanging fruit is used up?

Arctic oil is soon to take a place of prominence on the fossil fuel menu. That's how desperate we are set to become in the quest for ever-more-and-more fuel. No one can argue that arctic oil is low-hanging fruit.

I hope by now your faith has found something to grapple with.
 

Surkov

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You don't say. Anyway, oil is flowing more than ever before and there is no shortage in 2011 and there is still no shortage in 2019.
Lowering of prices is a mechanism for increasing consumption. That is far from ideal form the point of view of the producer. Plus less profit = less investment in R&D. Much is relatively sunny today, but that might not be the case tomorrow.

Sure peak-oil researchers tend to make premature predictions, but the fact remains eventually non-renewable resources will deplete to the point where costs mean production is no viable. The truth is no-one truly has a date... and that includes you. You have no certainty to offer us regarding the future. At best we are cautiously optimistic?
 

Hillmanhunter1

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The petrochemical industry includes e.g. car tyres, and the plastic dashboards etc.con all new cars including on the few percents of cars that are electric. As to how many electric cars will be produced over the next decade or two, time will tell, but there are major constraints to consider, for example what raw materials are required to produce the batteries? Of those raw materials how many are non-renewable? If supply of these materials tightens, will that make the battery more expensive.

Can you make say 250,000,000 batteries every year, and year after year, forever?

In 2010 there were about 1 billion cars on the road globally. It's now about 1.4 billion. And the numbers rise at at ever-increasing rate. In another decade it could easily hit 2 billion. If you truly believe that half of that will be electric then that means a billion batteries on the road in 15 years? Lets be optimistic: 10 years? And every few years each of those cars will want a new battery. You could literally end up producing hundreds of millions per annum. Possible? Costly?

Given the scale of change, only a 'true believer' like yourself can be that hyper-confident. The more intelligent position, as always, is 'we don't dare say we know, there are so many variables when forecasting the global picture.'

What level of petrochemicals will be required in producing a billion electric cars? You must know, quite precisely in fact, given your confidence level. Well, what figures have you encountered in your research to date?

Moving on lets consider, once again (as it's something you have failed to really comment on): how much fossil fuel is required to a) build a billion electric cars (batteries not included ;) )? How much fossil fuel will be required to continuously charge a billion batteries? What is your total estimate? After all you said earlier you are even more confident that the authors of the most optimistic reports. So you much already have made the calculations. Well, what are they?

Do we have enough fossil fuels to achieve this MASSIVE transition? At what point, as both population and the total car figures increase, might fossil fuels become more costly as e.g. more and more of the low hanging fruit is used up?

Arctic oil is soon to take a place of prominence on the fossil fuel menu. That's how desperate we are set to become in the quest for ever-more-and-more fuel. No one can argue that arctic oil is low-hanging fruit.

I hope by now your faith has found something to grapple with.
We don't need a billion cars in short order (and that number is not cars only - it includes light trucks).

Approx 80 million cars were manufactured in 2018. Just a fraction of those cars were electric, but check out the curve:
18063
 

Surkov

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We can all agree that 8 years ago, we were not at Peak Oil or anyplace close and those saying we were were idiots and The Field Marshall was correct.
QED
How much of an impact did shale have?

Do you feel that major oil discoveries are yet to be made? In the arctic perhaps? Or have we at least reached 'peak discovery'?
 

StirCharles

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How much of an impact did shale have?

Do you feel that major oil discoveries are yet to be made? In the arctic perhaps? Or have we at least reached 'peak discovery'?
Decent question Surkov. Let's say that I am a giant oil company and I discover a huge new find, it is not in my best interests to divulge too much, as little as legally possible, or otherwise I might depress the price.
Now let's say my friend is the US security state. It most certainly is in his interest to keep the oil price high to sustain the extremely advantageous petro-dollar system. Especially if this oil is is a nice safe spot, like Alaska.
Furthermore, MY friend, the security state would be looking to have the US totally in a position to be the one and only world superpower, China and Russia being enemies. In such a situation, I would drain them both using my dollars off the printing press, while oil is cheap . Oil is certainly cheap at 60 dollars a barrel, the barrel itself is worth more.
When necessary then, as they run out of easy oil, the price can shoot to 500 dollars a barrel by simply sinking an iranian tugboat. We may have, according to some, about 5 times the oil that ever existed in The Middle East, and the US is Master of All. We have won.

In that scenario, the dollar is backed and maybe increases in value 10 times. The debts are either paid first or even better just defaulted on, to destroy the Chinese. Europeans are totally screwed of course and petrol would be about 50 euros a gallon buy who cares, they can be told that they are saving the planet.

I do not know how much oil is in The North Slope of course, but it appears to me, to be being kept as reservoir.
 

StirCharles

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We have reached Peak Easy Discovery maybe all right. That is at 60 dollars. At 180 dollars, it is a whole different story. Oil was 140 dollars about 10 years ago so the US customer will only adjust at that level. 5 dollars a gallon would impact driving habits in the US. below 4 has zero impact at all even for the 12 mpg gas guzzlers.
 

Surkov

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Decent question Surkov. Let's say that I am a giant oil company and I discover a huge new find, it is not in my best interests to divulge too much, as little as legally possible, or otherwise I might depress the price.
Now let's say my friend is the US security state. It most certainly is in his interest to keep the oil price high to sustain the extremely advantageous petro-dollar system. Especially if this oil is is a nice safe spot, like Alaska.
Furthermore, MY friend, the security state would be looking to have the US totally in a position to be the one and only world superpower, China and Russia being enemies. In such a situation, I would drain them both using my dollars off the printing press, while oil is cheap . Oil is certainly cheap at 60 dollars a barrel, the barrel itself is worth more.
When necessary then, as they run out of easy oil, the price can shoot to 500 dollars a barrel by simply sinking an iranian tugboat. We may have, according to some, about 5 times the oil that ever existed in The Middle East, and the US is Master of All. We have won.

In that scenario, the dollar is backed and maybe increases in value 10 times. The debts are either paid first or even better just defaulted on, to destroy the Chinese. Europeans are totally screwed of course and petrol would be about 50 euros a gallon buy who cares, they can be told that they are saving the planet.

I do not know how much oil is in The North Slope of course, but it appears to me, to be being kept as reservoir.
When you say "huge new find" do you mean e.g. Ghawar? Or even half or quarter that size? If so, how on earth could such a find be kept secret? Also, why pursue e.g. shale in its place? There is a rather large hole in your reasoning, perhaps?

And as said the next major phase of exploration is to be in the Arctic. Why look for new oil discoveries in the Arctic if you have a reasonable expectation of new finds in easier locations? Even off-shore. Why even consider the massive trouble and expense?
 

owedtojoy

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We don't need a billion cars in short order (and that number is not cars only - it includes light trucks).

Approx 80 million cars were manufactured in 2018. Just a fraction of those cars were electric, but check out the curve:
18063
A classic s-curve. It took 20 years for mobile phones to replace landlines, and we are probably looking at the same for electric motors and internal combustion engines.


Good riddance to the ICE. There is a sad side to it, like all major changes. Even a non-techie like me knows in principle what a camshaft, a fuel injector, or a gearbox does. I even know how to double-declutch. The language of switched reluctance and cathode battery degradation is as alien to our generation as terrets and martingales. But that’s what the young will learn now.
 

Hillmanhunter1

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A classic s-curve. It took 20 years for mobile phones to replace landlines, and we are probably looking at the same for electric motors and internal combustion engines.
I would agree that that's probably the right time-frame, but after 10 years it will become very difficult to sell internal combustion cars.
 

Surkov

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A classic s-curve. It took 20 years for mobile phones to replace landlines
What is the single biggest (massive!) difference between a) a mobile phone and b) a car?

Take your time. When you figure it out you will know that your analogy is simplistic to the point of absurdity.
 

Surkov

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I would agree that that's probably the right time-frame, but after 10 years it will become very difficult to sell internal combustion cars.
I'm not going to repeat the various extremely pertinent questions you have ignored thus far in the thread. You are living in a fantasy bubble. It's important to have dreams, a vision of the future, etc., but to reach it you need to address some very difficult problems.
 

middleground

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I would agree that that's probably the right time-frame, but after 10 years it will become very difficult to sell internal combustion cars.
A dramatic fall in sales of diesel cars will probably happen by 2024 due to an increase in excise tax, the move to hybrids, and concerns about resale value.
 

Hillmanhunter1

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I'm not going to repeat the various extremely pertinent questions you have ignored thus far in the thread. You are living in a fantasy bubble. It's important to have dreams, a vision of the future, etc., but to reach it you need to address some very difficult problems.
And you need to stop being a shill (paid or otherwise) for the industry that has done more to destabilize the world (politically and environmentally) than all the others combined.

As I have said earlier on this thread, I am a lifelong petrol-head - I love my car. But I'm not stupid either, this is the last internal combustion engine car I will ever buy.
 

Surkov

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And you need to stop being a shill (paid or otherwise) for the industry that has done more to destabilize the world (politically and environmentally) than all the others combined.

As I have said earlier on this thread, I am a lifelong petrol-head - I love my car. But I'm not stupid either, this is the last internal combustion engine car I will ever buy.
Ah, so out of the blue you start with the name-calling and conspiracy-talk. In other words you have *still* not even begun to answer the various extremely pertinent questions you have ignored thus far in the thread. You are living in a fantasy bubble. Lots of people do that because it's the soft option. The children of today will, as adults, suffer the consequences.
 


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