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Plethora of Polls out in IT Tomorrow on a Wide Range of Issues.


ruserious

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Majority backs same-sex union, poll indicates - The Irish Times - Mon, Nov 26, 2012

Voters were asked how they would vote in the constitutional referendums planned during the Coalition’s lifetime.

On same-sex marriage 53 per cent said they would vote Yes while 30 per cent would vote No, while 17 per cent have no opinion. Women were significantly more in favour of the change than men and younger voters were the most enthusiastic. Voters over 55 are solidly opposed to the proposed change.
The only proposed change that does not meet with public approval is to reduce the voting age to 17.
On abolition of the Seanad 55 per cent said they would vote Yes, 22 per cent said No and 23 per cent had no opinion. There is an even spread of opinion on this issue across age, class and region. The Government has committed itself to holding a referendum on this issue and it will not be considered by the convention
.

The most popular proposal going before the convention is the one to give Irish citizens living abroad the right to vote in presidential elections. The response here was 68 per cent Yes and 17 per cent No.
On the question of whether the reference to the woman’s life within the home should be removed from the Constitution the most striking finding was the number of people with no opinion.

A total of 41 per cent said the reference should be removed, while 19 per cent said it should not and 40 per cent had no opinion.
Very interesting results there.

The poll was conducted among a representative sample of 1,000 voters aged 18 and over, in face-to-face interviews at 100 locations in all 43 constituencies.
The margin of error is plus or minus 3 per cent.
 
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Roll_On

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The one about women in the home is a shocker. Perhaps it's male indifference to the issue. Surprised the other one's aren't higher yes% too.
 

Half Nelson

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When I hear voters saying how they would vote, with no debate or knowing the wording, then all I can think is "I have a car I'd like to sell to you".

People who give such answers to pollsters are probably too stupid to find their way to the booth.
 

QuizMaster

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You know the way these things go. When the actual wording comes out it's a different story. Then when the issues are teased out during the campaign the game changes again. Then finally on polling day about 30% bother to turn up.
 

southwestkerry

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When I hear voters saying how they would vote, with no debate or knowing the wording, then all I can think is "I have a car I'd like to sell to you".

People who give such answers to pollsters are probably too stupid to find their way to the booth.
That is why I have no time for or faith in any poll myself.
 

NYCKY

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Majority backs same-sex union, poll indicates - The Irish Times - Mon, Nov 26, 2012

Voters were asked how they would vote in the constitutional referendums planned during the Coalition’s lifetime.

The most popular proposal going before the convention is the one to give Irish citizens living abroad the right to vote in presidential elections. The response here was 68 per cent Yes and 17 per cent No
Very interesting results here indeed and generally very positive results.

On the issue of giving Irish citizens abroad the right to vote, it would be interesting to see how that one would play out. Giving Irish citizens abroad the right to vote in Presidential elections would greatly enhance Sinn Feins chances of winning that office something I think the government would be loathe to do. I think the government would be more likely to enfranchise emigrants with a few TDs, maybe the establishment of a separate constituency for this but given the number of Irish emigrants around the world I wouldn't expect much more than a token nod.
 
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storybud1

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The Irish Times are so socially liberal, they make the Guardian look like the bulletin of the Prayer Book Society.
The Irish Times ? FFS the most useless rag on the market, it is Fooked and good riddance, give it about 2 years at most before it is just another online hawker looking for readers.
 

Roll_On

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When I hear voters saying how they would vote, with no debate or knowing the wording, then all I can think is "I have a car I'd like to sell to you".

People who give such answers to pollsters are probably too stupid to find their way to the booth.
I'd say the summaries given are fairly self explanatory.
 

TommyO'Brien

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On those figures the Seanad referendum would not pass. The marriage one might. The woman in the home one wouldn't.

In all referendums the key to assessing movability of public opinion is to know at what point an issue has been debated. There has been little said against abolishing the Seanad and on the women in the home section. So they should be a lot higher. If they aren't already that means they are highly vulnerable in debate. (It doesn't mean the counter arguments are valid, just that they can make people vote for the status quo for fear of what a yes vote could cause.) There has been quite a bit said by both sides on the marriage issue (Iona, David Quinn and others have been making the counter argument for years) so the alternative narrative is already out there meaning that the poll result factors in the counter argument. Counter arguments have not been raised on the others to any extent so if they only are at 55% and 41% before the debate they are on the day in real danger, if fact likely, to be defeated.
 

gijoe

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Are you alleging fraud in the poll ?

cYp
Its all about the framing of the question. In most occassions I see lobby groups present a poll as saying 70 or 80% etc agree with said lobby groups position you will find that the question posed bears only a slight relevance to what the lobby claims the poll result says. Say for example a Gay marriage group might say that a poll they commissioned says 65% of people favour gay marriage however the poll question is invariably more benign and less specific such as 'do you favour two loving and committed non-heterosexual persons being allowed to marry'. The question is framed in a very benign manner to illict the maximum favourable support without being actually dishonest but of course if you framed the question as 'do you favour a right to gay marriage and gay adoption' the positive response would be in the toilet.
 

TommyO'Brien

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Its all about the framing of the question. In most occassions I see lobby groups present a poll as saying 70 or 80% etc agree with said lobby groups position you will find that the question posed bears only a slight relevance to what the lobby claims the poll result says. Say for example a Gay marriage group might say that a poll they commissioned says 65% of people favour gay marriage however the poll question is invariably more benign and less specific such as 'do you favour two loving and committed non-heterosexual persons being allowed to marry'. The question is framed in a very benign manner to illict the maximum favourable support without being actually dishonest but of course if you framed the question as 'do you favour a right to gay marriage and gay adoption' the positive response would be in the toilet.
That is NOT how professional polls are done. The commissioner of the polls does not set the actual questions. They may suggest what topics but the questions are framed neutrally. No professional pollster is going to do the sort of thing you claim because their credibility would go down the toilet if they produced a result that was false. In this industry reputation is everything. Blow that through bias and you will have cut your own throat.
 

NYCKY

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Its all about the framing of the question. In most occassions I see lobby groups present a poll as saying 70 or 80% etc agree with said lobby groups position you will find that the question posed bears only a slight relevance to what the lobby claims the poll result says. Say for example a Gay marriage group might say that a poll they commissioned says 65% of people favour gay marriage however the poll question is invariably more benign and less specific such as 'do you favour two loving and committed non-heterosexual persons being allowed to marry'. The question is framed in a very benign manner to illict the maximum favourable support without being actually dishonest but of course if you framed the question as 'do you favour a right to gay marriage and gay adoption' the positive response would be in the toilet.
I agree with this and have often stated that you can get an opinion poll to tell you anything you want. The example you use is a bit crude and the questions posed would be a lot more subtle but your point is well taken.
 

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