Poll tracking and a poll of polls


the secretary

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Updated for July:
FF support up, FG/Lab down: opinion poll - RTÉ News

Don't think there was an MRBI/RedC one for July was there?
I thought saying it was the end of the month that there would have been an opinion poll out this weekend or last by Red C for the SBP but it didn't appear. Red C did a poll in and around mid July when the anglo tapes were in full swing so perhaps that was covering July for them.
 

the secretary

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Rite, sorry. I thought it was further into July.

Odd is rite, usually in the 5 weeks since that last one published a company would have carried out a poll. In fairness they were very regular there for a while.
 

TommyO'Brien

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Here's a graphical representation of the poll tracking from the start of 2013. It includes MRBI, RedC and Millward-Brown as well as a poll of polls.

Admittedly the poll of polls isn't perfect because MRBI don't run every month and they also count Greens separately. For my sanity I've included the Greens in the Others section for the Poll of Polls. It's starting from Feb as I can't find a Millward or MRBI from Jan.

I'll update it as required when new polls come out. If anyone could find MRBI or Millward polls from Jan or any MRBIs for March or April, or better yet suggest another statistically measured poll (i.e: No internet or radio polls) that would be awesome.


Red C Polls:



Millward-Brown Polls:


MRBI Polls:



Poll of Polls:

There is a fundamental rule in political science: never ever ever do a 'poll of polls' where polls are using different weightings. It is like trying to average out financial transactions where different bits of the transaction are in pounds, euro, dollars and yen, without converting them all into the one curency. Each poll will have a large number of variables unique to it - different weightings, different margins or error, different sample sizes, different time spans.

Polls of polls can only be done if you strip out all the variables, but in some polls that is an impossibility because one of the variables that differs may be whether it they use random sampling or stratified sampling, and whether or not they use rolling polls.

It is possible to do polls of polls if all the polls done have identical variables. Because First Past the Post is such a simple (and ridiculous) electoral system it is possible sometimes to use polls of polls in the UK because some of their pollsters don't use different variables. But in Ireland, where we have a complex electoral system, all pollsters use complex variables which they believe capture public opinion best. I remember the late Jack Jones of MRBI, who taught a class I was in about polls, saying that when he saw anyone on TV in Ireland trying to do a poll of polls he felt like throwing something at them on the screen in frustration. The guys from IMS who lectured us said the same. It was and is a fundamental no-no with Irish political polls. They simply aren't compatible for averaging because they all use diametrically opposed weightings and calculations and well as different sample sizes and so different margins of errors.
 

TommyO'Brien

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Rite, sorry. I thought it was further into July.

Odd is rite, usually in the 5 weeks since that last one published a company would have carried out a poll. In fairness they were very regular there for a while.
The word is 'right'. 'Rite' is a ceremony in a church!

Polls cost a lot of money. The SBP doesn't have a lot of money, so it is understandable if they don't do polls in summer months when they know the public isn't tuned into politics. They may axe the REDC polls entirely to save money, given their financial state.
 

stakerwallace

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It matters little as events closer to an election will be the deciding factors.
 

TommyO'Brien

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It matters little as events closer to an election will be the deciding factors.
No. Polls do matter now. They tell you know stable and so solid a party's support is. If it is rock solid, events close to an election won't shift it. If it is weak, they will.
 

commonman

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I think we have up to the neck with polls, i would love once there is an election called regardless what its for polls should be stopped until the vote is counted, i believe polls manipulate people opinion.
 

Rocky

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I think we have up to the neck with polls, i would love once there is an election called regardless what its for polls should be stopped until the vote is counted, i believe polls manipulate people opinion.
It has gone well over the top now. There seems to be a new one dam near every week now.
 

wombat

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It has gone well over the top now. There seems to be a new one dam near every week now.
So long as its the newspapers or bookies paying for them, who cares. Personally, I'd expect anyone other than the most committed party supporter to be in the "don't know" camp at this distance from an election.
 

Rocky

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So long as its the newspapers or bookies paying for them, who cares. Personally, I'd expect anyone other than the most committed party supporter to be in the "don't know" camp at this distance from an election.
I wonder why papers are so focused on them at times like this?

I can't see them making any big difference in the sale of a paper. Even on this site opinion polls attract feck all attention now.
 

commonman

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So long as its the newspapers or bookies paying for them, who cares. Personally, I'd expect anyone other than the most committed party supporter to be in the "don't know" camp at this distance from an election.
But do you not think that the can manipulate the answer they want by the way the but the question to get the result they want for the people that is paying them.
 

mangaire1

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I wonder why papers are so focused on them at times like this?

I can't see them making any big difference in the sale of a paper. Even on this site opinion polls attract feck all attention now.
you're funny
the IT poll thread is the most viewed thread on P.ie now !
more than twice the views of the next most viewed !

i can however understand your troubles, & why another poll is the last thing a FG/RA or a Lobour-Stickies man would want to see.

as for myself - i intend voting nr 1 SF, & placing FG at the botom of my balot paper & Labour one place abpve em.
i don't mind at all, at all, if there is a new poll every day.
 

Spanner Island

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Here's a graphical representation of the poll tracking from the start of 2013. It includes MRBI, RedC and Millward-Brown as well as a poll of polls.

Admittedly the poll of polls isn't perfect because MRBI don't run every month and they also count Greens separately. For my sanity I've included the Greens in the Others section for the Poll of Polls. It's starting from Feb as I can't find a Millward or MRBI from Jan.

I'll update it as required when new polls come out. If anyone could find MRBI or Millward polls from Jan or any MRBIs for March or April, or better yet suggest another statistically measured poll (i.e: No internet or radio polls) that would be awesome.


Red C Polls:



Millward-Brown Polls:


MRBI Polls:



Poll of Polls:

Jaysus...

Looking at the way the fortunes of the eFFing traitors and FG practically mirror each other would suggest there's little difference between the two and whether they like it or not, they're regarded as two sides of the same coin by many voters...

The existence of both parties is a curse on our political system which has stymied any clear left/right divide from developing here...
 

mangaire1

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Jaysus...

Looking at the way the fortunes of the eFFing traitors and FG practically mirror each other would suggest there's little difference between the two and whether they like it or not, they're regarded as two sides of the same coin by many voters...

The existence of both parties is a curse on our political system which has stymied any clear left/right divide from developing here...
pity the graphs don't extend back to GE 2011
they would then demonstrate the reality -

substantial & ongoing downward trend for FG & Labour
substantial upward trend for FF & SF - especially for SF
 
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