Predict The Referendum Result

What will be the result (your prediction, not intention) of the referendum on the 8th will be

  • The result will be 'yes'.

    Votes: 116 57.7%
  • The result will be 'no'.

    Votes: 85 42.3%

  • Total voters
    201
  • Poll closed .

arsenal

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This thread is a simple one, just predict how the referendum will go. You can add in information on how you expect certain constituencies to vote and turnout if you wish.

I predict it will be yes 53% and no 47% with a turnout between 58 and 63%.

The constituencies I expect to vote yes: all 11 Dublin constituencies,Kildare North,Wicklow,Louth,Cork south-central and Limerick City.

The constituencies I expect to vote no: Donegal,Sligo-Leitrim,Cavan-Monaghan,Longford-Westmeath,Mayo,Galway-East,Roscommon-Galway,Kerry,Clare,Limerick County,Tipperary,Laois,Offaly,Cork North-West and Cork South-West.

The constituencies that I am unsure of Wexford,Carlow-Kilkenny,Kildare South,Cork East,Cork north-central,Meath east,Meath west,Galway west and Waterford.
 


flavirostris

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I'll go for the same as the Brexit result. 52% No and 48% Yes.
 

Dame_Enda

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I think a yes vote but the polls have been a bit unstable so I think it could be close. I think younger men will be a key swing vote. It won't be like the Marriage Referendum in the size of the lead. I expect all the Dublin constituencies to vote yes, along with the Cork city, Galway city and Limerick city constituencies. I think though that while the margins will be different, the ones where the marriage referendum were close are a good guide to where the result will be close or even "no". I think Waterford will be close and could go narrowly against. Donegal will be "no", as well Roscommon-South Leitrim. I think Wexford will be a yes thanks partly to growing numbers of Dubliners in the north of the county. Cavan–Monaghan, Mayo, Galway East and Longford-Westmeath will be No. Carlow-Kilkenny will be close, as will Clare, Cork NW, Cork SW, Laois Offaly, Kerry NW Limerick.

On balance then a "yes" vote in the 50-somethings.
 
Last edited:

mac tíre

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55% Yes. 45% No. Turnout 63%
 

slysnara

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Not much point in predicting until after the televised debates.

And the most recent polls only go as far as end of April.
 

Sync

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Godammit Arsenal. I was going to go 53-47. Uh. 54-46. Yes. Maybe tighter if No focuses on the 3 month thing rather than the principle itself.
 
Last edited:

Deadlock

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Feb 4, 2011
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This thread is a simple one, just predict how the referendum will go. You can add in information on how you expect certain constituencies to vote and turnout if you wish.

I predict it will be yes 53% and no 47% with a turnout between 58 and 63%.

The constituencies I expect to vote yes: all 11 Dublin constituencies,Kildare North,Wicklow,Louth,Cork south-central and Limerick City.

The constituencies I expect to vote no: Donegal,Sligo-Leitrim,Cavan-Monaghan,Longford-Westmeath,Mayo,Galway-East,Roscommon-Galway,Kerry,Clare,Limerick County,Tipperary,Laois,Offaly,Cork North-West and Cork South-West.

The constituencies that I am unsure of Wexford,Carlow-Kilkenny,Kildare South,Cork East,Cork north-central,Meath east,Meath west,Galway west and Waterford.
I think that's a very reasonable analysis. I'd disagree slightly - I think the margin will be closer to 55% Repeal-45% Retain on a slightly higher turnout figure - maybe 60%-65%. My own guess is Kildare South and Meath East will Repeal.
 
D

Deleted member 17573

Yes 55%, No 45%. Turnout under 60% as many will stay at home because, while they support Repeal, they do not agree with abortion on demand.
 

stopdoingstuff

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Feb 26, 2011
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50.5-49.5, No side wins. Lesbian child haters immediately morph into demons and spew vaginal lava on the innocent.
 

NYCKY

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I predict that if it's a Retain vote, that there will be another referendum in the coming years.

If it's a Repeal vote there will never ever be another referendum.
 

sadmal

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May 2, 2007
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I'll go 57% Yes - 43% No. Yes could even end up higher.
 

Half Nelson

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Bill

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1-15 to 9 points
 

Dame_Enda

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Dec 14, 2011
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Can we have a poll on what the margin will be?
 


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