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Predicted Results for the Next Election


gear one

Member
Joined
Jan 26, 2006
Messages
19
Carlow Kilkenny

McGuinness(FF), Hogan(FG), Aylward(FF), Nolan(FF), Phelan(FG)

Cavan/Monaghon

O'Hanlon(CC), Smith(FF), O'Caolain(SF), Connolly(Ind), Crawford(FG)

Clare

Killeen(FF), J. Breen(Ind), P. Breen(FG), Daly(FF)

Cork East

Ahern(FF), Bradford(FG), O'Keefe(FF), Stanton(FG)

Cork North Central

O'Flynn(FF), Kelleher(FF), Allen(FG), Lynch(Lb)

Cork North West

Murphy(FG), O'Keefe(FF), D. Moynihan(FF)

Cork South Central

Martin(FF), Coveney(FG), Boyle(GP), Dennehy(FF), Clune(FG)

Cork South West

O' Donovan(FF), O'Keefe(FG), Sheehan(FG)

Donegal North East

Keaveney(FF), Mac Lochlainn(SF), McHugh(FG)

Donegal South West

Gallagher(FF), Coughlan(FF), Doherty (SF)

Dublin Central

Ahern(FF), Gregory(Ind), McDonald(SF), Costello(Lb)

Dublin Mid West

Harney(PD), Curren(FF), Gogarty(GP), Fitzgerald(FG)

Dublin North

Sargent(GP), Kennedy(FF), Daly(SP), Reilly(FG)

Dublin North Central

Haughey(FF), Bruton(FG), Callely(FF)

Dublin North East

Broughan(Lb), Brady(FF), Sweeney(FG)

Dublin North West

Ahern(FF), Ellis(SF), Shortall(Lb)

Dublin South

Brennan(FF), Kitt(FF), Mitchell(FG), Ryan(GP), Shatter(FG)

Dublin South Central

Ardagh&Mulcahy(2FF), O'Snodaigh(SF), Mitchell or C.Byrne(FG), Upton(Lb)

Dublin South East

Gormley(GP), McDowell(PD), Quinn(Lb), Creighton(FG)

Dublin South West

Crowe(SF), Lenihan(FF), Hayes(FG), Rabbitte(Lb)

Dublin West

Lenihan(FF), Higgins(SP), Varadkar(FG)

Dun Laoghaire

Hanafin(FF), Gilmore(Lb), Barrett(FG), Andrews(FF), Cuffe(GP)

Galway East

Treacy(FF), Connaughton(FG), Burke(FG), Kitt(FF)

Galway West

O'Cuiv(FF), Fahy(FF), Higgins(Lb), Grealish(PD), O'Brolchain(GP)

Kerry North

McEllistrim(FF), Ferris(SF), Deenihan(FG)

Kerry South

O'Donoghue(FF), Moynihan-Cronin(Lb), Fitzgerald(FG)

Kildare North

Fitzpatrick(FF), Durkin(FG), Murphy(Ind), Stagg(Lb)

Kildare South

Power(FF), Wall(Lb), O'Fearghail(FF)

Laois/Offaly

Cowen(FF), Maloney(FF), Enright(FG), Parlon(PD), Flanagan(FG)

Limerick East

O'Dea(FF), Noonan(FG), O'Sullivan(Lb), Power(FF), O'Malley(PD)

Limerick West

Cregan(FF), Neville(FG), Finnucane(FG)

Longford/Westmeath

Penrose(Lb), O'Rourke(FF), Bannon(FG), Kelly(FF)

Louth

Ahern(FF), O'Dowd(FG), Morgan(SF), Kirk(FF)

Mayo

Ring(FG), Kenny(FG), Carty(FF), Cowley(Ind), O'Mahoney(FG)

Meath East

Wallace(FF), McEntee(FG), Fitzgerald(Ind)

Meath West

English(FG), Dempsey(FF), Brady(FF)

Roscommon/South Leitrim

Naughton(FG), Finneran(FF), Feighan(FG)

Sligo/North Leitrim

Perry(FG), Devins(FF), Scanlon(FF)

Tipperary North

Lowry(Ind), Hoctor(FF), Coonan(FG)

Tipperary South

Hayes(FG), Healy(Ind), McGrath(FF)

Waterford

Cullen(FF), Deasy(FG), Fitzgerald(Lb), Cullinane(SF),

Wexford

Browne(FF), Howlin(Lb), Connick(FF), Twomey(FG), Kehoe(FG)

Wicklow

Roche(FF), McManus(Lb), Timmins(FG), Fox(Ind), Kelly(Lb)



Fianna Fail 66
Fine Gael 49
Labour 18
Sinn Fein 10
Green Party 7
Progressive Democrats 5
Socialist Party 2
Independants 9
 

candid

Member
Joined
Oct 23, 2004
Messages
86
One change.....

Galway East

Treacy(FF), Connaughton(FG), Cannon(PD), Kitt(FF)

Mark my words, it will happen, even FG are admitting it already.
 

FutureTaoiseach

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 20, 2005
Messages
7,992
Website
greatdearleader.blogspot.com
LOL

According to FG. In other words risible! :roll:

And remember, the Flannery prediction was a good while before Bertiegate, which has transformed the situation from beforehand. I place no trust whatever in these predictions.

The PDs will keep at least 6 seats and possibly gain some. FG is on 23% - 0.5% ahead of last election. They will perform poorly.

For this prediction to be true, Liz O'Donnell would have to lose her seat. Yeah right! :roll:

Codology of the highest order.... :)

Anyway recall the polls a few weeks before the 2002 election, placing Tim O'Malley on 4.8% and predicting the loss of the PD seat. Oh and the one placing McDowell on 6th place in DSE. And the ones showing the PDs would lose Galway West. Remember Fiona O'Malley on 4.5%. Oh yes those were some gems....and there are some more above....thank you gear....ever considered stand-up? :lol:

Candid is right - PD councillors scored 24% in Galway in 2004. There is definitely a second PD seat in Galway. Probably Cannon otherwise why were the Blueshirts so desperate to poach him? :wink:

I understand polls earlier this year were placing Fiona O'Malley on 9% 1st preferences in Dun Laoghaire - ahead of Cuffe on 6% and some others. She will hold.

Gear's prediction that Lucinda will take a seat in DSE is especially laughable considering she's on 8% in the IMS poll in the MOS. The title of this thread should be edited because it is misleading. We are not being told by who this prediction is being made and on what basis. We are not being shown transfer patterns. In short this is another desperate stunt by a dying party....
 

owenfeehan

Member
Joined
Jun 4, 2005
Messages
54
candid said:
One change.....

Galway East

Treacy(FF), Connaughton(FG), Cannon(PD), Kitt(FF)

Mark my words, it will happen, even FG are admitting it already.
Are you Ciaran Cannon or something? You never stop talking about him.
 

codology

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 27, 2006
Messages
388
owenfeehan said:
candid said:
One change.....

Galway East

Treacy(FF), Connaughton(FG), Cannon(PD), Kitt(FF)

Mark my words, it will happen, even FG are admitting it already.
Are you Ciaran Cannon or something? You never stop talking about him.
 

candid

Member
Joined
Oct 23, 2004
Messages
86
owenfeehan said:
candid said:
One change.....

Galway East

Treacy(FF), Connaughton(FG), Cannon(PD), Kitt(FF)

Mark my words, it will happen, even FG are admitting it already.
Are you Ciaran Cannon or something? You never stop talking about him.
No , but he is our only candidate in Galway East, he is the candidate I am already out canvassing for, so for the next few months I will take every opportunity to raise his profile and believe me, he is in with a good chance of a seat. If Ulick Burke is all he has to contend with in South Galway then that chance of a seat becomes a very real possibility.

We just spent all of today in the Portumna area and the reaction we got was very positive, people in that part of Galway feel that they are very badly represented.
 

Biffo

Member
Joined
Jul 1, 2004
Messages
79
gear one said:
jmcc said:
Waterford

Cullen(FF), Deasy(FG), Fitzgerald(Lb), Cullinane(SF),
Who is Fitzgerald? I thought Brian O'Shea was Labour's candidate here.
( http://www.labour.ie/brianoshea/ )
Regards...jmcc
Sorry jmcc. Replace 'Fitzgerald' with Brian O' Shea. I was getting tired by the time i got to Waterford!
Ah I'd say you were tired long before that, around Laois/Offaly for example. Only joking really it is very hard to predict with any degree of certainty at this stage.
 

jmcc

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 12, 2004
Messages
42,297
gear one said:
jmcc said:
Waterford

Cullen(FF), Deasy(FG), Fitzgerald(Lb), Cullinane(SF),
Who is Fitzgerald? I thought Brian O'Shea was Labour's candidate here.
( http://www.labour.ie/brianoshea/ )
Regards...jmcc
Sorry jmcc. Replace 'Fitzgerald' with Brian O' Shea. I was getting tired by the time i got to Waterford!
No problem. :) It was just that I thought that Labour had replaced O'Shea with an electable candidate when I was asleep. Though I think that it is a flip of a coin between Wilkinson (FF) and O'Shea (Lab) losing the seat to Cullinane (SF).

Regards...jmcc
 

SEANSOUTH

Member
Joined
Sep 26, 2004
Messages
26
Biffo said:
gear one said:
jmcc said:
Waterford

Cullen(FF), Deasy(FG), Fitzgerald(Lb), Cullinane(SF),
Who is Fitzgerald? I thought Brian O'Shea was Labour's candidate here.
( http://www.labour.ie/brianoshea/ )
Regards...jmcc
Sorry jmcc. Replace 'Fitzgerald' with Brian O' Shea. I was getting tired by the time i got to Waterford!
Ah I'd say you were tired long before that, around Laois/Offaly for example. Only joking really it is very hard to predict with any degree of certainty at this stage.
I would say you were getting tired when you hit Donegal North East.
 

rockofcashel

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 23, 2005
Messages
7,956
Website
www.sinnfein.ie
So completely hung dail huh ..

the phones would be hopping in 44 that evening :wink:

In fact, it might not be too far wrong, and if thats the case, even a FF/Lab coalition would be very dodgy indeed (84 seats)
 

gear one

Member
Joined
Jan 26, 2006
Messages
19
rockofcashel said:
So completely hung dail huh ..

the phones would be hopping in 44 that evening :wink:

In fact, it might not be too far wrong, and if thats the case, even a FF/Lab coalition would be very dodgy indeed (84 seats)

I suppose 'Hung Dail' is the point I'm trying to make. My figures are maybe a bit off but i believe both most talked about Governments, FF & PDs(71) & FG,Lab&GP(74) will be both well short of the 83 seats needed.
 

Bunclody75

New member
Joined
Aug 19, 2006
Messages
1
Wexford

Browne(FF), Howlin(Lb), Connick(FF), Twomey(FG), Kehoe(FG)
I don't think Wexford will remain 2FF, 2FG and 1 Lab.

A recent FG poll suggested 1FF, 1FG, 1PD, 1SF and 1 Lab.

Seems extraordinary to me to be honest but thats what I am hearing from FG sources in Wexford.

Even if it is off it suggests that we will see change. Twomey was looking like holding his seat at the start of the year but he looks like he will loose it now. He is very vulnerable and has not impressed.

The big worry is SF taking a seat in New Ross where Connick is not making the kind of impression he was expected to make. I have heard that FF recently asked Tony Dempsey to recondier standing down but that he declined. They are worried about Wexford, though it is hard to imagine them losing a seat it seems possible at this stage.

FG will hold Kehoes seat but D'arcy isn't strong enough to take a seat, the traditional vote won't be enough in Gorey, its changed too much and he hasn't a high profile with the new voters in the area.
 

FutureTaoiseach

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 20, 2005
Messages
7,992
Website
greatdearleader.blogspot.com
I suppose 'Hung Dail' is the point I'm trying to make. My figures are maybe a bit off but i believe both most talked about Governments, FF & PDs(71) & FG,Lab&GP(74) will be both well short of the 83 seats needed.
That is most certainly not what will happen look at the polls FG-Lab-Green are behind FF-PD. The concept of FF getting only 66 seats on 39% of the vote is very unlikely. They got 77 seats on that share in 1997. I suspect that if there is an validity to your findings they relate to months-old polls certainly before Bertiegate. For your predictions to come true, they would require FG to pick up 18 seats on only a 0.5% increase in vote share - as FG are only on 23% in Red C. That is totally impossible and you know it! :)

The notion that FG-Lab (33%) can win more seats than FF (39%) is laughable. :roll:
 

shannonBlueShirt

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 24, 2006
Messages
643
One more change... Mulcahy (FG0 for Clare in stead of Daly (FF)
 

shannonBlueShirt

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 24, 2006
Messages
643
For your predictions to come true, they would require FG to pick up 18 seats on only a 0.5% increase in vote share - as FG are only on 23% in Red C. That is totally impossible and you know it!
FT,

Two reason why your wrong here:

If FG get 23 % of the vote in Dublin they could get more seats.. (Remember that where they lost most of their seats)

and

FG also poll around 2/3 % better on election day...
 

gear one

Member
Joined
Jan 26, 2006
Messages
19
FutureTaoiseach said:
I suppose 'Hung Dail' is the point I'm trying to make. My figures are maybe a bit off but i believe both most talked about Governments, FF & PDs(71) & FG,Lab&GP(74) will be both well short of the 83 seats needed.
That is most certainly not what will happen look at the polls FG-Lab-Green are behind FF-PD. The concept of FF getting only 66 seats on 39% of the vote is very unlikely. They got 77 seats on that share in 1997. I suspect that if there is an validity to your findings they relate to months-old polls certainly before Bertiegate. For your predictions to come true, they would require FG to pick up 18 seats on only a 0.5% increase in vote share - as FG are only on 23% in Red C. That is totally impossible and you know it! :)

The notion that FG-Lab (33%) can win more seats than FF (39%) is laughable. :roll:

I have Fine Gael & Labour alone on 67 seats, less than Fianna Fail & PDs.
Also I believe that come the election the percentage differance between the two prospective governments will actually be fairly even. (In keeping with the general fluctuating results of the opinion polls in the last two years or so). Also as Albert Reynolds said, 'Elections are won and lost by (now 44) seperate battles up and down the country.' I genuinely believe that the current government, although reasonably popular, will not transfer as well as It did in 2002 when the wind went through its sails.
This is an honest and unbiased prediction from someone who believes there is still all to play for (With a stong possibility for more drama after the counting is done than before it). Exciting times.
 
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