Predicting SF gains

Cai

Well-known member
Joined
May 30, 2004
Messages
7,925
Seeing SF's recent notable success in the DSW by-election it occurs to me that the gain happened in a constituency that tends to vote heavily against refferendum proposals that can be interpreted as being detremental to Irish sovreignty. Recent developments have been devastating as far as sovreignty is concerned.

Might it be the case that it's areas which vote in this way during refferenda where SF will advance significantly - rural conservative areas - especially those close to the border & overwhelmingly working class, urban ones such as Dublin North West & Dublin South West?

Am I on to something, or am I barking up the wrong tree?
 


locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,173
I don't know if its lack of Irish sovereignty as such.

The constituencies you name are ones that have strong feelings of disenfranchisement and dissatisfaction. Donegal probably because of its isolation, while relative poverty has that effect in the Dublin ones and possibly Cork North Central.

The feeling of disenfranchisement leads to an adoption of an anti-establishment position and both opposition to European treaties and voting for Sinn Fein reflect that.
 

Murph

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 4, 2009
Messages
3,197
Surely you are contradicting yourself here.

Why call them conservative when they voted progressively to retain our sovereignty?

Surely it was the euro lapdog parties who argued and lied about fictionary jobs and loss of soverighty that have been found out by recent events who are the real conservatives!
 

Cai

Well-known member
Joined
May 30, 2004
Messages
7,925
Surely you are contradicting yourself here.

Why call them conservative when they voted progressively to retain our sovereignty?

Surely it was the euro lapdog parties who argued and lied about fictionary jobs and loss of soverighty that have been found out by recent events who are the real conservatives!
Both Donegals are in the conservative camp when it comes to referenda on social issues.
 
Last edited:

Freedom front

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 7, 2010
Messages
3,446
Parties who listen to voters and respond will do well at the next election

Parties who take action on behalf of voters will do well at the next election

People want politicians to listen to them and take action on issues that are important too them (the People)

I'm Not Surprised Sinn Fein will gain allot of Votes
 

Murph

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 4, 2009
Messages
3,197
It will be hard to guage it now because of the exteme weather conditions -but if it was normal, saturdays Sinn Fein Rally against budget cuts and the 4 year deal, might have told us what sort of support is there for the party and how people are thinking about a different way forward!
 

davehiggz

Well-known member
Joined
May 7, 2009
Messages
1,115
You are onto something OP but it's something that isn't a huge phenomenon.

Sinn Féin does well in working class and border areas because it is a "republican socialist" party. Simple as that really. It targets the border and it targets working class areas.

What's harder to explain is the SF support in places like Kerry North and Meath West. It seems that Sinn Féin does a good job at being the third party in rural conservative areas, something that Labour is having difficulty in trying to achieve.
 

Cai

Well-known member
Joined
May 30, 2004
Messages
7,925
On the contrary - nationalism is most commonly associated with conservatism, in most countries anyway.
No - I was refering to social referenda on social issues.

Nationalism can be associated with either the Left or Right - depends where you are. In Wales it's associated mainly with the Left, in Belgium with the Right. Post colonial African nationalism is associated with the Left. Catalan nationalism is split between Right & Left.
 

truthisfree

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 16, 2009
Messages
6,186
I think in a lot of ways the hatred of SF by the main parties has come back to bite them on the ass.
 

Buddies

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 24, 2010
Messages
491
Yea...truthisfree is right here, SF are seen as the 'outsiders' and with people not trusting the 'insiders' this is where votes will be won

I am on another thread saying that Limerick City will return 1ff 1lab and 2 fg but also that one FG could lose out to a SF

Cllr Quinlivan is making steady enough inroads
 

truthisfree

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 16, 2009
Messages
6,186
Yea...truthisfree is right here, SF are seen as the 'outsiders' and with people not trusting the 'insiders' this is where votes will be won

I am on another thread saying that Limerick City will return 1ff 1lab and 2 fg but also that one FG could lose out to a SF

Cllr Quinlivan is making steady enough inroads
Two first preferences going to SF next election from this house, that is one less for FG and the Greens - Who'd have thunk! :)
 

corporal punishment

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 22, 2010
Messages
2,826
We both voted green last time. One definite SF this time and I'm swaying between Sean Sherlock and whoever SF put up.
 

PeterBangsVej

Member
Joined
Oct 29, 2010
Messages
33
Well I'll be voting for them. I don't see FG or Labour as genuine alternatives (which are what we truly need) and Sinn Fein have made a number of moves that I respect them for - the High Court action over DSW and their attempt to form a technical group to name some. The others just prefer to shout from the other side of the Dail chamber.
 

Craiced

Active member
Joined
Nov 20, 2007
Messages
299
SF will win between 15 and 20 seats based on todays poll of 16%. They are going to kill Labour in working class areas. Labour are too middle class.
Who would of thought that it would be SF, not FG, that would have more in common with Constantin Gurdgiev, David McWilliams, Declan Ganley and every credible 'independant' financial investment house in Europe.

It's simple "Burn the Bondholders" If that's the Sinn Fein message they are going places
 

Trophonius

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 6, 2010
Messages
374
Personally I think that SF will do quite well. From my predictions I think they will make gains in:

Cavan-Monaghan
Donegal North East
Dublin Central
Dublin Mid West
Dublin North East
Dublin North West
Dublin South West
Meath West

I also believe they have outside chances in Laois-Offaly (unlikely), Sligo-Nth Leitrim (possible) and Wexford (probable) as well as a possible second seat in Louth if Adams polls well and they manage their vote. That's anything form 13 to 17.
 
Last edited:
R

RepublicanSocialist1798

Personally I think that SF will do quite well. From my predictions I think they will make gains in:

Cavan-Monaghan
Donegal North East
Dublin Central
Dublin Mid West
Dublin North East
Dublin North West
Dublin South West
Meath West

I also believe they have outside chances in Laois-Offaly (unlikely), Sligo-Nth Leitrim (possible) and Wexford (probable) as well as a possible second seat in Louth if Adams polls well and they manage their vite.
To be honest, they've a better chance in Laois-Offaly than in Wexford. The local organisation in Wexford was shattered when Dwyer left in 2009 and they're only really after repairing it now.
 

Trophonius

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 6, 2010
Messages
374
Thanks RS1798. Wasn't sure of situation in Wexford. On a good day I think they could take Laois-Offaly. I don't think they'll make it in S/NL but could well be instrumental in helping ULA gain last seat. Surely they will run someone with Adams in Louth? Or is his ego too big?
 

Kalan

Active member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
172
extremists

The extremist neo-liberal economics embedded in the Memo of Understanding with the IMF/EU is not in the interests of the Irish people; only to the benefit of the elitist ruling oligarchy.
Its a time for boldness. Sinn Fein is showing some. Labour's timid, half-hearted opposition to what is being proposed will not serve it well; ollagoning is not a political position.
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top