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Prediction for Labour causalities in next general election.


pinemartin

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Jun 7, 2006
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6,731
Was looking at the Labour seats won in the last election and am trying to predict the losses for them if the ran the exact same candidates in the exact same constituencies in the next election if they were sub 10% in the Polls. 10% is close to what they are at now but we still have to see water charges, House tax and a few austerity budgets to come.

I have tried in an unscientific way to factor in local popularity, constituency size and the resurgence of FF and emergence of SF/ Indis. The next election looks very bleak for Labour and it is only the personal vote of some that will get them elected.

In the 2007 election they got 10.1 % and 20 seats but in that election they were the opposition and so were not being blamed for government policy.They were more transfer friendly than I think they will be in this election, hence my prediction that they will struggle to hold on to anymore than about 11 seats.

I understand that my predictions are totally unscientific and that I dont know the nuances that exist in many constituencies.I understand also that many of these TDs will not run or will run under a different banner. I will happily be open to correction by people with better knowledge of many of the constituencies.

Here are my humble predictions.

Phelan Carlow /KK GONE
Michael McNamara Clare GONE.
Cork East Sean Sherlock HOLD.
Cork North central, Kathleen Lynch HOLD.
Cork North Central but Ciaran Lynch GONE.
Cork South West Michael West GONE.
Dublin Central Joe Costello HOLD.
Dublin Mid west HOLD one maybe Joanna Tuffy, Robert Dowds GONE.
Dublin North.Brendan Ryan Maybe a chance of holding but more likely GONE.
Dublin North Central Aodhan O Riordain very close but if he didnt get over 13% so GONE.
Dublin North East Tommy Broughan should hold, Sean Kenny GONE.
Dublin North West Shortall Hold, John Lyons GONE.
Dublin South. Alex White GONE.
Dublin South Central or Eric byrne 1 GONE Michael Conaghan for sure to close to say if both get dumped.HOLD 1.
Dublin South East, Quinn HOLD just, Kevin Humphreys GONE.
Dublin South West Pat Rabbitte HOLD, Eamonn Maloney GONE.
Dublin West. Joan Burton should HOLD.
Dun Laoghaire. Very close but Eamonn Gilmore would be toast.GONE.
Galway East . Colm Keaveney GONE..
Galway west Derek Nolan. GONE.
Kerry North West AJ Spring GONE.
Kildare North . Emmet Stagg should HOLD.
Kildare South Jack Wall .HOLD.
Limerick City Jan O sullivan GONE.
Longford Westmeath Willie Penrose HOLD.
Louth. Gerald Nash GONE.
Meath East Dominic Hannigan. GONE.
Tipp North Alan Kelly GONE.
Waterford Ciara Conway. GONE.
Wexford , Brendan Howlin . HOLD.
Wicklow. Ann Ferris GONE.
 

Ryan Tubbs

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Sep 20, 2012
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I'll go drinking for a month when Colm Keaveney, Ciara Conway, Róisín Shortall and Ay-Yawn Ó'Reerd-Yawn lose their seats. Nastier and more contemptible people you couldn't hope to come across.

An amazing contrast with the talented gentlemen (and women) in Labour - like the Lynches, Sherlock, White, Nolan, Jan O'Sullivan, the Uptons, etc.
 

Number2

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Joined
May 5, 2006
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556
No casualties - if they lose their seats, we will be paying their massive pensions anyway. So it's win-win for the politician.
 

Sierra

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Sep 26, 2007
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Quite a number of those that you listed to hold wont even run again. I cant see the likes of Quinn or Stagg running again. They will both be approaching 70. I also wouldn't rule out Rabbitte stepping down also. These guys stayed in politics for the ministerial job, and they certainly wont be getting in the door of government buildings again for some time.

Its actually a problem that Labour strategists will face. Those TD's would hold their seat due to high levels of personal satisfaction, but other party candidates will struggle. FF faced the same problem in 2011.
 

jacko

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Mar 6, 2009
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2,666
you seem to be forgetting the major boundary changes

eg: Spring & Kelly will be contesting in 5 seat Kerry and Tipperary constituencies rather than their old 3 seaters and will both hold
 

Treatyboy

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Joined
Jun 9, 2010
Messages
130
I'll go drinking for a month when Colm Keaveney, Ciara Conway, Róisín Shortall and Ay-Yawn Ó'Reerd-Yawn lose their seats. Nastier and more contemptible people you couldn't hope to come across.

An amazing contrast with the talented gentlemen (and women) in Labour - like the Lynches, Sherlock, White, Nolan, Jan O'Sullivan, the Uptons, etc.
Jan O Sullivan is grossly incompetent and completely unsuitable for a left wing party (although given the current standard of smoked salmon socialist).

The people of Limerick have seen that in a time of current austerity imposed on the country where people can barely put food on their tables, Jan 'Pockets' O Sullivan has actually increased her income as a Politician and has gone missing in the city. When in opposition she was constantly on the paper opposed to cutbacks, now she just puts her head in the sand and eats from the trough.

Jim Kemmy is turning in his grave.
 

Ryan Tubbs

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Joined
Sep 20, 2012
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No casualties - if they lose their seats, we will be paying their massive pensions anyway. So it's win-win for the politician.
If you had any clue of what you're talking about (clearly you don't) then you'd know that most of the likely Labour casualties are first-time TDs and would, therefore, be entitled to very small pensions.
 

Analyzer

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Feb 14, 2011
Messages
46,201
Sounds you are predicting a serious setback for a family franchise business that has been in operation for decades.

It might reduce the number of people choosing champagne socialism as a career path.
 

Clanrickard

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Joined
Apr 25, 2008
Messages
33,035
Here are my humble predictions.

Phelan Carlow /KK GONE
Michael McNamara Clare GONE.
Cork East Sean Sherlock HOLD.
Cork North central, Kathleen Lynch HOLD.
Cork North Central but Ciaran Lynch GONE.
Cork South West Michael West GONE.
Dublin Central Joe Costello HOLD.
Dublin Mid west HOLD one maybe Joanna Tuffy, Robert Dowds GONE.
Dublin North.Brendan Ryan Maybe a chance of holding but more likely GONE.
Dublin North Central Aodhan O Riordain very close but if he didnt get over 13% so GONE.
Dublin North East Tommy Broughan should hold, Sean Kenny GONE.
Dublin North West Shortall Hold, John Lyons GONE.
Dublin South. Alex White GONE. Hold
Dublin South Central or Eric byrne 1 GONE Michael Conaghan for sure to close to say if both get dumped.HOLD 1.
Dublin South East, Quinn HOLD just, Kevin Humphreys GONE.
Dublin South West Pat Rabbitte HOLD, Eamonn Maloney GONE.
Dublin West. Joan Burton should HOLD.
Dun Laoghaire. Very close but Eamonn Gilmore would be toast.GONE. Hold
Galway East . Colm Keaveney GONE..
Galway west Derek Nolan. GONE.
Kerry North West AJ Spring GONE.
Kildare North . Emmet Stagg should HOLD.
Kildare South Jack Wall .HOLD.
Limerick City Jan O sullivan GONE. Hold
Longford Westmeath Willie Penrose HOLD.
Louth. Gerald Nash GONE.
Meath East Dominic Hannigan. GONE.
Tipp North Alan Kelly GONE.
Waterford Ciara Conway. GONE.
Wexford , Brendan Howlin . HOLD.
Wicklow. Ann Ferris GONE.
 

pinemartin

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Jun 7, 2006
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6,731
you seem to be forgetting the major boundary changes

eg: Spring & Kelly will be contesting in 5 seat Kerry and Tipperary constituencies rather than their old 3 seaters and will both hold
I understand that many will be running with different boundaries. I think they both will find it difficult to get elected in a 5 seater with about 10%. They would need to get plenty of transfers for that to happen.

Kelly got just under 19% , Spring got 20.8% , the Labour vote according to polls has dropped by about about 8.5 % so at the moment if they got the same vote -8.5% drop they would just about make it but the new constituencies have large areas where they have no previous history and this is before the water charges, the house tax and a few hard budgets.That combined with an increase in FF, SF and Indis and I would not be confident that they would get re elected.
 
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Analyzer

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Feb 14, 2011
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46,201
I reckon that the Looper Party could put a donkey on the ticket in Dun Laoghaire or Dublin Bay South/DSE and even Dublin South, and still get a quota.

However, in working class areas, I reckon that snooty socialism has been found out.
 

Ryan Tubbs

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However, in working class areas, I reckon that snooty socialism has been found out.
As an old lecturer of mine use to say, they're the type of socialists who wouldn't want any poor people coming around to their house for dinner.
 

mike58

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Jan 4, 2011
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453
Labour have been the biggest traitors of their electorate and deserve to be wiped out, S.Sherlock has been a disaster for his constituency, delivering nothing but sweet waffle .
 

pinemartin

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Dublin South is really volatile as Labour found out before. They topped the poll one year and lost they seat next time around. In Dun Laoghaire Gilmore won on just over 20% and bat************************ got 10%.If they both run they will lose, if bat************************ runs on her own I cant see her getting a seat, maybe Gilmore could get one on his own but it would be close.
 

General Urko

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Oct 24, 2012
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The clown Keaveney for sure and his county colleague Derrick, if he doesn't seriously cop himself on!
Don't forget though ala the last shower a high number of party grandees will ride out of Dodge into the sunset with enormous unjustifable pensions and won't have the margoolies to face the electorate, same applies to a few big blueshirts!
 

General Urko

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Dublin South is really volatile as Labour found out before. They topped the poll one year and lost they seat next time around. In Dun Laoghaire Gilmore won on just over 20% and bat************************ got 10%.If they both run they will lose, if bat************************ runs on her own I cant see her getting a seat, maybe Gilmore could get one on his own but it would be close.
I take it Bat is a senator, when that's abolished she will be of the scene forever!:lol:
 

True Republican

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Apr 3, 2008
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Jan O Sullivan is grossly incompetent and completely unsuitable for a left wing party (although given the current standard of smoked salmon socialist).

The people of Limerick have seen that in a time of current austerity imposed on the country where people can barely put food on their tables, Jan 'Pockets' O Sullivan has actually increased her income as a Politician and has gone missing in the city. When in opposition she was constantly on the paper opposed to cutbacks, now she just puts her head in the sand and eats from the trough.

Jim Kemmy is turning in his grave.
Wasn't Jan O'Sullivan a communist in the 1980's along with Comrade Kemmy in Limerick?

As for Labour as much as I'd like to see labour get zero seats I could actually see Labour come out with 20 seats. Of course I hope I'm wrong.
 

Northsideman

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Mar 7, 2010
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Aodhán Ó Ríordáin is IMO on the way out. He hasn't shown his face around my neighbourhood of late and a I can't wait for him to do so. DNC has a history of electing Lab TDs and then dumping them. The constituency will be redrawn prior to the next election but that may only add to his woes because Tommy Broughan as a Lab or Indo candidate will be all over him and I know who is likely to get the votes. Aodhán will pay a heavy price for abandoning his promises and telling people "Isn't that what you tend to do during an election" won't cut any ice. Still I'm sure he can always go back to his teaching post and then some other poor sap will pay the penalty.

[video=youtube;yAS0c5AkiNg]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAS0c5AkiNg[/video]
 

bagel

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May 7, 2007
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I'll go drinking for a month when Colm Keaveney............lose their seats. Nastier and more contemptible people you couldn't hope to come across.
I can't speak for the other people you commented negatively upon but I can speak for Colm.
As for him being contemptible, I refer you to his Facebook page where you'll find thousands of quotes from people all over Ireland and abroad expressing admiration for him and his political beliefs.
Regarding him being nasty, Colm is known personally to me as an acquaintance and I don't accept your comment. I've never before heard or read of him being described in such a manner, nor witnessed him behaving as such.
 

stakerwallace

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Feb 27, 2011
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Jan O Sullivan is grossly incompetent and completely unsuitable for a left wing party (although given the current standard of smoked salmon socialist).

The people of Limerick have seen that in a time of current austerity imposed on the country where people can barely put food on their tables, Jan 'Pockets' O Sullivan has actually increased her income as a Politician and has gone missing in the city. When in opposition she was constantly on the paper opposed to cutbacks, now she just puts her head in the sand and eats from the trough.

Jim Kemmy is turning in his grave.
Nonsense: she is very active in her constituency, well tuned in and you are prone to hyperbole in the extreme. She will have my numero uno.
 
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