Premier Li announces that China is lifting lockdowns to restart economic growth. Wise decision?

Patslatt1

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This was reported in Bloomberg subscription news today. There will be great pressure to return to work after brief COVD virus lockdowns in developing economies like China where a high proportion of wages are taken by necessities such as food and rent. A minority of the population in China,about 5% or 70 million people,live in bare subsistence poverty. The majority of Chinese workers work in small businesses, many of which would go out of business if the lockdowns continued much longer.
It seems the government is more concerned about economic disruption and a potentially deep economic depression in lockdowns than the risk of a renewal of COVD contagion in lifting lockdowns.
It seems that Chinese hospital capacity has expanded enough to treat COVD patients even if there is renewed contagion. The scale of contagion may be estimated based on reliable figures from Korea's massive testing of hundreds of thousands, in which about 3 to 4% of tests are positive,of which the death rate is 1%. So per million population, 30,000 to 40,000 test positive and 300 to 400 die. Applying the latter figures to China's 1400 million population gives total deaths of 420,000 to 560,000. The 1400 million population figure includes children who have a very high immunity to COVID. By comparison, normal annual death rates in China are roughly 1.1% of the population,or about 15 million a year.
It is impossible to estimate the health costs from massive economic disruption from continuing lockdowns but the costs are likely to be great. Life expectancies are usually worse in deep economic recessions, mental health of many is being affected by social isolation and loss of earnings cause great anxiety in China's threadbare welfare state. I believe the government made the right decision.
 


Dame_Enda

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I hope they are not reopening the wet-markets where all this started.
 

making waves

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stupid decision - and drive by greed and profit - not surprising you are hailing it patslatt - irrespective of how many people it kills.
 

Patslatt1

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stupid decision - and drive by greed and profit - not surprising you are hailing it patslatt - irrespective of how many people it kills.
Lots of suicides and mental illnesses occur in deep economic recessions and in China's threadbare welfare state, subsistence level benefits are typical. Chinese would rather take the small chance of dying from the virus than the serious risk of being driven into poverty.
 

owedtojoy

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There is still a risk of the infection re-starting by being brought in from the outside. A second outbreak would be disastrous.


The Chinese are out ahead of everyone else, and what happens will be watched closely.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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stopdoingstuff

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Very, very risky. If I was in China, as I often am, I would still be scared. If the CCP are doing this as a political move, it is reckless. I hope I am wrong as I have family there.
 
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making waves

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Lots of suicides and mental illnesses occur in deep economic recessions and in China's threadbare welfare state, subsistence level benefits are typical. Chinese would rather take the small chance of dying from the virus than the serious risk of being driven into poverty.
Deep economic recessions are caused by the anarchy of capitalism - another reason to confine it to the dustbin of history.
 

BACKTOBASICS

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Lots of suicides and mental illnesses occur in deep economic recessions and in China's threadbare welfare state, subsistence level benefits are typical. Chinese would rather take the small chance of dying from the virus than the serious risk of being driven into poverty.
President Trump has just announced that within weeks businesses will be gradually re-opening albeit continuing with the social distancing and taking the same hand-cleaning and no touching recommendations on board.
He quotes the same reasons as you have mentioned above as society would be driven into chaos if closed down for practically a year or two as some doomsayers suggest.
 

Patslatt1

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There is still a risk of the infection re-starting by being brought in from the outside. A second outbreak would be disastrous.


The Chinese are out ahead of everyone else, and what happens will be watched closely.
Maybe a renewed outbreak wouldn't overwhelm hospitals if there are enough new bed capacities and respiratory ventilators. ICU might be overwhelmed,though.
 

Patslatt1

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Very, very risky. If I was in China, as I often am, I would still be scared. If the CCP are doing this as a political move, it is reckless. I hope I am wrong as I have family there.
People can only tolerate lockdowns for a short time except in warzones like Syria. The health of the population would be deeply affected by prolonged lockdowns. Better to take a chance on the 1/2% to 1% death rate of Covid.
 

Patslatt1

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Deep economic recessions are caused by the anarchy of capitalism - another reason to confine it to the dustbin of history.
Have you heard of the Keynesian revolution? Keynesianism went out of fashion from abuse of the concept of contracyclical government spending that led to 1970s high inflation. But it came roaring back in Washington last week.
 

Patslatt1

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stupid decision - and drive by greed and profit - not surprising you are hailing it patslatt - irrespective of how many people it kills.
It's tiring to have to correct your Marxist, Trotskyist concepts that were dumped by many socialist parties when they accepted democracy over a century ago.
 

raetsel

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It goes without saying that this is risky but it was always going to happen at some stage. Can they be trusted to have gotten the timing right? Who knows? Let's hope it works.
Their experience will guide our future actions when trying to resume economic activity. We are at least fortunate in not having to go back first.
 

JCR

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We will see if this was wise in a few weeks. What isn't wise and what would be stupid to try this in countries that don't have the capacity to act quickly and effectively like China has. Not to mention the increased hospital capacity.

The economic system we had was going over a cliff at some point anyway. It was an unsustainable way of life. We should be wise and try and address this.
 

stopdoingstuff

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People can only tolerate lockdowns for a short time except in warzones like Syria. The health of the population would be deeply affected by prolonged lockdowns. Better to take a chance on the 1/2% to 1% death rate of Covid.
In China that is 13 million people. But yeah I agree- they can rot because I want my Starbucks.
 

Patslatt1

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We will see if this was wise in a few weeks. What isn't wise and what would be stupid to try this in countries that don't have the capacity to act quickly and effectively like China has. Not to mention the increased hospital capacity.

The economic system we had was going over a cliff at some point anyway. It was an unsustainable way of life. We should be wise and try and address this.
BOO HOO for the economic system.
Will nurses unions allow qualified nurses assistants to work in hospitals on desperately needed additional bed capacity? The emptying out of beds with cancellations of elective surgery imposes great hardships on many and should not be the solution to bed capacity.
 

Patslatt1

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In China that is 13 million people. But yeah I agree- they can rot because I want my Starbucks.
The barista in China's starbucks could be chucked into the street if s/he hasn't the wages to pay rent. There is no social welfare for the hundreds of millions of migrant workers, many of whom lack rights of residence in the biggest cities. Don't project a purely Irish perspective into China.
 


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