Presidential Prediction 2016

livingstone

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Mar 3, 2004
Messages
24,506
With polls opening in four days, thought it might be fun to have a bit of a bet for bragging rights on predicting the outcome of the election.

Ground Rules

1. Use this thread for predictions. If you want to argue about the substance of the elections, or argue the many reasons your fellow posters are wrong, save it for one of the many threads already around.

2. Only predictions posted before polls open on Tuesday will count for bragging rights purposes. That's 6AM Eastern, or 11AM here.

3. If you want to edit your prediction after you make it but before 11AM on Tuesday, that's fine. But pop a note in to explain why your thinking's changed.

4. There's a point for every Electoral Vote you get right - so a max of 538 votes. Highest number of correctly called EVs wins.

To Predict:

Just pop the Candidate Name and Total EVs you expect them to get, followed by the list of States you expect them to win. By states I'm also including DC and the Congressional Districts in Maine and Nebraska if you think they might split. For example (and this is not my prediction!):

Hilary Clinton - 282 EVs

Alabama ( 9 )
Alaska ( 3 )
Arizona ( 11 )
Arkansas ( 6 )
California ( 55 )
Colorado ( 9 )
Connecticut ( 7 )
Delaware ( 3 )
Florida ( 29 )
Georgia ( 16 )
Hawaii ( 4 )
Idaho ( 4 )
Illinois ( 20 )
Indiana ( 11 )
Iowa ( 6 )
Kansas ( 6 )
Kentucky ( 8 )
Louisiana ( 8 )
Maine ( 4 )
Maryland ( 10 )
Massachusetts ( 11 )
Michigan ( 16 )
Minnesota ( 10 )
Mississippi ( 6 )
Missouri ( 10 )

Donald Trump - 256 EVs

Montana ( 3 )
Nebraska ( 5 )
Nevada ( 6 )
New Hampshire ( 4 )
New Jersey ( 14 )
New Mexico ( 5 )
New York ( 29 )
North Carolina ( 15 )
North Dakota ( 3 )
Ohio ( 18 )
Oklahoma ( 7 )
Oregon ( 7 )
Pennsylvania ( 20 )
Rhode Island ( 4 )
South Carolina ( 9 )
South Dakota ( 3 )
Tennessee ( 11 )
Texas ( 38 )
Utah ( 6 )
Vermont ( 3 )
Virginia ( 13 )
Washington ( 12 )
West Virginia ( 5 )
Wisconsin ( 10 )
Wyoming ( 3 )
District of Columbia ( 3 )

I'll post mine in a moment - let the biggest geek win!
 


ruserious

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Jan 3, 2011
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29,092
After the Brexit result, anything could happen.

Still go with Hillary as a one time president.
 

Spanner Island

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Feb 22, 2011
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23,974
Nice OP... but tbh... I just cannot wait for this to be over already...

I'm p!ssed off with Hillary and Donald and I reckon the world is screwed regardless of which of them wins...

Who will win?

Could be either of them but I'm thinking Trump might just do it.

Who would I like to win?

Clinton without being in any way enthused by her... she's like a robot and the inane grinning while pointing at the crowd is beyond irritating at this stage...

Bill started that and it was sh!t then too...

Sorry... I can't do the EV thing... I'm not that much of an anorak on this :cool:

------------------
EDIT
------------------

In light of the FBI finding nothing (again)... I'm thinking a Clinton win... but not by nearly as much as she should have wiped the floor with an opponent like Trump...

It's been a long, tedious and abysmal campaign for which America should be ashamed of itself.
 
Last edited:

Betson

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Feb 7, 2013
Messages
16,702
Don't know about the exact result but I think it will be a bit of a landslide for Clinton with a much bigger margin than people are expecting now.
 

Felixness

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Jan 18, 2016
Messages
4,397
Either way, America is screwed. I'm guessing Americans will vote with their vaginas for a female President, for the sake of showing how Right On and Progressive they are. They voted for a black President and that's been a disaster for race relations. I'm kind of hoping Trump wins then announces that he only ran as a joke and won't accept the Presidency.
 

Betson

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Joined
Feb 7, 2013
Messages
16,702
With polls opening in four days, thought it might be fun to have a bit of a bet for bragging rights on predicting the outcome of the election.

Ground Rules

1. Use this thread for predictions. If you want to argue about the substance of the elections, or argue the many reasons your fellow posters are wrong, save it for one of the many threads already around.

2. Only predictions posted before polls open on Tuesday will count for bragging rights purposes. That's 6AM Eastern, or 11AM here.

3. If you want to edit your prediction after you make it but before 11AM on Tuesday, that's fine. But pop a note in to explain why your thinking's changed.

4. There's a point for every Electoral Vote you get right - so a max of 538 votes. Highest number of correctly called EVs wins.

To Predict:

Just pop the Candidate Name and Total EVs you expect them to get, followed by the list of States you expect them to win. By states I'm also including DC and the Congressional Districts in Maine and Nebraska if you think they might split. For example (and this is not my prediction!):

Hilary Clinton - 282 EVs

Alabama ( 9 )
Alaska ( 3 )
Arizona ( 11 )
Arkansas ( 6 )
California ( 55 )
Colorado ( 9 )
Connecticut ( 7 )
Delaware ( 3 )
Florida ( 29 )
Georgia ( 16 )
Hawaii ( 4 )
Idaho ( 4 )
Illinois ( 20 )
Indiana ( 11 )
Iowa ( 6 )
Kansas ( 6 )
Kentucky ( 8 )
Louisiana ( 8 )
Maine ( 4 )
Maryland ( 10 )
Massachusetts ( 11 )
Michigan ( 16 )
Minnesota ( 10 )
Mississippi ( 6 )
Missouri ( 10 )

Donald Trump - 256 EVs

Montana ( 3 )
Nebraska ( 5 )
Nevada ( 6 )
New Hampshire ( 4 )
New Jersey ( 14 )
New Mexico ( 5 )
New York ( 29 )
North Carolina ( 15 )
North Dakota ( 3 )
Ohio ( 18 )
Oklahoma ( 7 )
Oregon ( 7 )
Pennsylvania ( 20 )
Rhode Island ( 4 )
South Carolina ( 9 )
South Dakota ( 3 )
Tennessee ( 11 )
Texas ( 38 )
Utah ( 6 )
Vermont ( 3 )
Virginia ( 13 )
Washington ( 12 )
West Virginia ( 5 )
Wisconsin ( 10 )
Wyoming ( 3 )
District of Columbia ( 3 )

I'll post mine in a moment - let the biggest geek win!
You think it will all hinge on Florida again?

I think she won't even need Florida at the end of the day.
 

gerhard dengler

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Feb 3, 2011
Messages
46,739
Trump will win the popular vote.

Clinton will win the electoral college vote.

Even if my election guess is not accurate, I expect economic/financial volatility to ensue.
Why? Because a lot of bad economic stuff has been deliberately with held due to the election.
 

livingstone

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Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
24,506
Right well here's my prediction, based on the view that Clinton seems to have stopped (potentially started to slowly reverse) the bleeding and, mostly, because I think Clinton's ground game will be more effective than Trump's at getting out the vote.

Hilary Clinton 322 EVs

California ( 55 )
Colorado ( 9 )
Connecticut ( 7 )
Delaware ( 3 )
Florida ( 29 )
Oregon ( 7 )
Pennsylvania ( 20 )
Rhode Island ( 4 )
Wisconsin ( 10 )
DC ( 3 )
Hawaii ( 4 )
Illinois ( 20 )
Vermont ( 3 )
Virginia ( 13 )
Washington ( 12 )
Maine (at large and 1st CD) ( 3 )
Maryland ( 10 )
Massachusetts ( 11 )
Michigan ( 16 )
Minnesota ( 10 )
Nevada ( 6 )
New Hampshire ( 4 )
New Jersey ( 14 )
New Mexico ( 5 )
New York ( 29 )
North Carolina ( 15 )

Donald Trump 216 EVs

Alabama ( 9 )
Alaska ( 3 )
Arizona ( 11 )
Arkansas ( 6 )
Georgia ( 16 )
Idaho ( 4 )
Indiana ( 11 )
Iowa ( 6 )
Kansas ( 6 )
Kentucky ( 8 )
Louisiana ( 8 )
Mississippi ( 6 )
Missouri ( 10 )
Montana ( 3 )
Nebraska ( 5 )
North Dakota ( 3 )
Ohio ( 18 )
Oklahoma ( 7 )
South Carolina ( 9 )
South Dakota ( 3 )
Tennessee ( 11 )
Texas ( 38 )
Utah ( 6 )
West Virginia ( 5 )
Wyoming ( 3 )
Maine 2nd CD ( 1 )
 

flavirostris

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Joined
Dec 21, 2007
Messages
24,570
Clinton will just about shade it due to Trump failing to win Virginia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin & Colorado narrowly.

Virginia would have been a reliable red state until quite recently but it's been turned increasingly purple.

The trend of red states turning blue through increased Latino immigration is making it more and more difficult for Republicans to win the electoral college.

Even Texas is in danger of slipping from the Republican column which basically means lights out for the GOP. If Texas goes to the Democratic column, the Republicans will never win a national election again.
 

GDPR

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Jul 5, 2008
Messages
217,846
If Livingstone doesn't win, I think Dame Enda will win this, if he wasn't so biased towards Don "Capone" Trump. Or Midlander. Or maybe O'Sullivan if s/he turns up.

There I am predicting who will win this, rather than the POTUS election.

I have a hope more than a prediction and that is HRC wins with a landslide. She is nowhere near as bad as the public perceptions of her which for over 25 years have been fuelled by innuendo and lies (and a big mistake about emails). Please don't reply with all a lie-driven list.

I wish HRC good luck. And that the dems regain majorities in both Houses so that Congress can govern properly again while the GOP takes a sabbatical to rethink itself, or maybe dissolve completely and other parties come to the fore. Might bring about the end of the two-party system too which is possibly a good thing, at least interesting.
 

Zapped(CAPITALISMROTS)

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Joined
Dec 7, 2015
Messages
6,493
Twitter
daxxdrake
If Livingstone doesn't win, I think Dame Enda will win this, if he wasn't so biased towards Don "Capone" Trump. Or Midlander. Or maybe O'Sullivan if s/he turns up.

There I am predicting who will win this, rather than the POTUS election.

I have a hope more than a prediction and that is HRC wins with a landslide. She is nowhere near as bad as the public perceptions of her which for over 25 years have been fuelled by innuendo and lies (and a big mistake about emails). Please don't reply with all a lie-driven list.

I wish HRC good luck. And that the dems regain majorities in both Houses so that Congress can govern properly again while the GOP takes a sabbatical to rethink itself, or maybe dissolve completely and other parties come to the fore. Might bring about the end of the two-party system too which is possibly a good thing, at least interesting.
Hilary may win the presidency, but the house of Reps will certainly stay Republican and the Senate is extremely tight going in to Tuesday.
 

kerdasi amaq

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Aug 24, 2009
Messages
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The all important robot vote should give her the White House; almost no else will vote for her.
 

Dame_Enda

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Dec 14, 2011
Messages
53,610
My current prediction. I think she has a 50:50 chance in NE02 which Obama won in 2008. The GOP congressional candidate Don Bacon leads there by around 8% last I heard but in the early vote in Douglas county the Dems have around a 7000 lead. The other county in NE02 is Sarpy county which is a GOP stronghold. I read that around a 10000 lead in early voting in Douglas county is needed to overturn probable Trump lead in Sarpy. It's not quite 10000 but near enough if Dems get good turnout on polling day. I think NH and Maine CD2 are a bit up in the air but the polling averages in NH have her a little ahead but it's not certain. Trump recently went from 10% lead in largely blue collar White Maine CD02 to a slight deficit of 2-3% in two polls but still ahead 2% in another. It's probably 50:50 bit I'm.giving it to Trump.

I'm giving Michigan to Clinton.but much closer than 2012 based on recent polls. Trump was on 13% of its AA population in one recent poll.

I present to you my current predictive map.

 
Last edited:

hiding behind a poster

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Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
48,197
Clinton without being in any way enthused by her... she's like a robot and the inane grinning while pointing at the crowd is beyond irritating at this stage...
I can't stand the way she pretends to recognise someone in the front row, points at them and makes an extra-big smile and wave - just looks so fake. Anyway its far, far too early to predict, so I'll do mine on Monday night..... :lol: (*notices someone in the front row, smiles, and waves*)
 

hiding behind a poster

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Mar 8, 2005
Messages
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Trump will win the popular vote.

Clinton will win the electoral college vote.

Even if my election guess is not accurate, I expect economic/financial volatility to ensue.
Why? Because a lot of bad economic stuff has been deliberately with held due to the election.
Like what?
 

hiding behind a poster

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Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
48,197
Right well here's my prediction, based on the view that Clinton seems to have stopped (potentially started to slowly reverse) the bleeding
To paraphrase The Donald, where was she bleeding from the most, in your view?

(I'll get me coat.....)
 

benroe

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Jan 29, 2011
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I predict neither candidate will survive the aftermath of their election (politically).
 

Sister Mercedes

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Dec 19, 2011
Messages
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Trump will win the popular vote.

Clinton will win the electoral college vote.
The other way round I think. Clinton is polling much better than Obama did in places like Texas and Georgia, but not enough to win them. Add those to her big winning margins in places like California and New York and she's got a lot of votes in places she doesn't need them.
 


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