Prof Barrett: we need a plan in case of Frexit

McTell

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No
None of us has a crystal ball. Brexit? - wrong; Trump? - wrong; nul points so far.

So 3/3, a win by Marine le Pen, even the threat of it, could lead to Frexit, and prof Barrett says the government needs to plan just in case. Doesn't mean it will happen! Like lifeboats or insurance, you hope you'll never need them.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/15/ireland-draft-plan-eu-breakup-frexit

Decision making in Dublin since 2008 has been reactive in 99% of cases. Kick to touch because: "the ECB are on our side - aren't they?". Follow advice because then if it goes wrong you can say you followed advice. Anyone can follow advice, it doesn't show leadership.

Hollande has been lack-lustre, and will have to present a long shopping list in Brussels, that Barrett says we should support. Otherwise, if turned down like Cameron was, Hollande will lose to Le Pen.

Guardian lifts:


“If France exits the EU, Ireland would lose a major ally in debates over the common agricultural policy (CAP). Irish agriculture would have to adjust to competition with New Zealand and South America,” Barrett said.

“Ireland’s strategy while the EU survives should emphasise trade and market access, and also to develop trade with the rest of the world, as an insurance against an EU breakup. We should have at least a scenario to develop trade with non-EU countries in case of that breakup.”

He said the Fine Gael/Independents minority coalition must do more than the government did for Britain in arguing for a better deal for France, to prevent a possible EU meltdown.

“If Ireland wants the French to stay in the EU, presumably to retain an ally to support CAP, we had better form an ‘entente cordiale’ now.
 


TheWexfordInn

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“If Ireland wants the French to stay in the EU, presumably to retain an ally to support CAP, we had better form an ‘entente cordiale’ now.
Probably a good start would be for the Taoiseach avoiding insulting presidential candidate Le Pen in the manner he insulted presidential candidate Trump.
 

gleeful

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The Tories are finding it extremely hard to enact Brexit. The French would find that leaving the Euro is simply impossible.
 

Ruadh

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If , or is that when, France leaves the EU then there will not be a EU left. Such an event would guaranteed make Italian membership impossible also (since it's currently the candidate for leaving the Euro since the Euro is a millstone to it ) .

We should be planning for it, seeing the risks and opportunities.
 

Ruadh

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The Tories are finding it extremely hard to enact Brexit. The French would find that leaving the Euro is simply impossible.
Today Merkel says that maybe freedom of movement is something to be discussed.

Don't be so sure about how hard Brexit will be. The EU is a neo liberal entity driven by the political ambitions if it's leader class. If they find their careers threatened by populist discontent then even cornerstone neo liberal principles will be up for discussion.

If France goes then what would be left of the Eu. They would pretend to be a global level power but with me nukes. Would Greece stay in that instance?
 

TheWexfordInn

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The Tories are finding it extremely hard to enact Brexit. The French would find that leaving the Euro is simply impossible.
Simply impossible in the sense that 10 years ago there was unanimity among "the experts" that the collapse of Lehmans was impossible? That the financial crisis was unthinkable? (until it happened)

As McWilliams has frequently said its amazing how quickly the unthinkable can become the accepted normal.

By the Way I see McWilliams yesterday tweeting speculation that Italy could be the next domino to fall.
 

Henry94.

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If Britain does leave and negotiates a trade-deal with the US then our membership of the EU becomes untenable. We would need to be in the Brit-USA orbit instead of the EU one.

As a people we do feel an affinity for the ideals of the EU but the reality has proved a lot less comfortable. Britain and the US are our bread and butter economically.
 

McTell

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No
If Britain does leave and negotiates a trade-deal with the US then our membership of the EU becomes untenable. We would need to be in the Brit-USA orbit instead of the EU one.

As a people we do feel an affinity for the ideals of the EU but the reality has proved a lot less comfortable. Britain and the US are our bread and butter economically.

In the past 17 years the EU has not yet made a trade deal with the USA. Incredible!

While it is doing free-trade deals with Colombia etc. in the past week, it won't with Britain. Not as paper-free as the single market, but free trade all the same, if you're importing cut flowers all the way from Ecuador.

European Commission - PRESS RELEASES - Press release - Ecuador joins EU-Colombia/Peru trade agreement


So we may come back to what the EU was in 1980, the euro economic community EEC, and nothing wrong with that. The single market didn't get us cheap italian car insurance because of our legal system. The political unity stuff was too rushed and alienated britain, and the euro has been badly run since greece was allowed to lie its way in in 2004.
 

darkhorse

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If Britain does leave and negotiates a trade-deal with the US then our membership of the EU becomes untenable. We would need to be in the Brit-USA orbit instead of the EU one.

As a people we do feel an affinity for the ideals of the EU but the reality has proved a lot less comfortable. Britain and the US are our bread and butter economically.
Trumps intends to close off free trade deals not to create new ones
Repatriating American jobs and taxes is his aim
 

Trainwreck

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None of us has a crystal ball. Brexit? - wrong; Trump? - wrong; nul points so far.

Speak for yourself. I am running 2 from 2. Both were entirely predictable. What you are commenting on is the cognitive dissonance and misplaced self-regard of those who populate the media-political industry.
 

captain obvious

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Simply impossible in the sense that 10 years ago there was unanimity among "the experts" that the collapse of Lehmans was impossible? That the financial crisis was unthinkable? (until it happened)

As McWilliams has frequently said its amazing how quickly the unthinkable can become the accepted normal.

By the Way I see McWilliams yesterday tweeting speculation that Italy could be the next domino to fall.
Yes, France has a long way to go yet to exit the EU. I worked there prior and during the Brexit referendum and it was generally treated with a mixture of incredulity and something approaching disgust.

Italy is a total basket case. Its banks are very shaky and their economy has been flat-lining or contracting for years now.
 

Vega1447

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None of us has a crystal ball. Brexit? - wrong; Trump? - wrong; nul points so far.

So 3/3, a win by Marine le Pen, even the threat of it, could lead to Frexit, and prof Barrett says the government needs to plan just in case. Doesn't mean it will happen! Like lifeboats or insurance, you hope you'll never need them.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/15/ireland-draft-plan-eu-breakup-frexit

Decision making in Dublin since 2008 has been reactive in 99% of cases. Kick to touch because: "the ECB are on our side - aren't they?". Follow advice because then if it goes wrong you can say you followed advice. Anyone can follow advice, it doesn't show leadership.

Hollande has been lack-lustre, and will have to present a long shopping list in Brussels, that Barrett says we should support. Otherwise, if turned down like Cameron was, Hollande will lose to Le Pen.

Guardian lifts:


“If France exits the EU, Ireland would lose a major ally in debates over the common agricultural policy (CAP). Irish agriculture would have to adjust to competition with New Zealand and South America,” Barrett said.

“Ireland’s strategy while the EU survives should emphasise trade and market access, and also to develop trade with the rest of the world, as an insurance against an EU breakup. We should have at least a scenario to develop trade with non-EU countries in case of that breakup.”

He said the Fine Gael/Independents minority coalition must do more than the government did for Britain in arguing for a better deal for France, to prevent a possible EU meltdown.

“If Ireland wants the French to stay in the EU, presumably to retain an ally to support CAP, we had better form an ‘entente cordiale’ now.
All Barrett is saying is that France might leave the EU. That's it. Duh.

What does he suggest we do in that eventuality? No suggestions that I can see in the article.

I don't think the Guardian uses the Prof title. Is he one?
 

JacquesHughes

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'A Europe of Free Nations', says Marine Le Pen

Yes, France has a long way to go yet to exit the EU. I worked there prior and during the Brexit referendum and it was generally treated with a mixture of incredulity and something approaching disgust.

.
Marine Le Pen says there 'will be a Europe of free nations'.

I don't know how developed that concept is within the NF, but; if this resembles an area of continent-wide free travel, zero tariffs, free competitive trade in goods and services, with central disbursements to promote development locally, and humane provisions for States to regulate mass relocations of population; it will sell like hot cakes.

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/angela-merkel-suggests-she-is-willing-to-compromise-on-free-movement-in-the-wake-of-brexit/ar-AAkl2VP?ocid=spartandhp
 

Vega1447

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Marine Le Pen says there 'will be a Europe of free nations'.

I don't know how developed that concept is within the NF, but; if this resembles an area of continent-wide free travel, zero tariffs, free competitive trade in goods and services, with central disbursements to promote development locally, and humane provisions for States to regulate mass relocations of population; it will sell like hot cakes.

Angela Merkel suggests she is willing to compromise on free movement in the wake of Brexit
Very well said.
 

Mad as Fish

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In the past 17 years the EU has not yet made a trade deal with the USA. Incredible!

While it is doing free-trade deals with Colombia etc. in the past week, it won't with Britain. Not as paper-free as the single market, but free trade all the same, if you're importing cut flowers all the way from Ecuador.

European Commission - PRESS RELEASES - Press release - Ecuador joins EU-Colombia/Peru trade agreement


So we may come back to what the EU was in 1980, the euro economic community EEC, and nothing wrong with that. The single market didn't get us cheap italian car insurance because of our legal system. The political unity stuff was too rushed and alienated britain, and the euro has been badly run since greece was allowed to lie its way in in 2004.
The only trade deal it has tried to get up and running is so secretive that nobody outside of the governments concerned has a clue as to what we as a democracy are meant to be agreeing to. Trade deals can be good for countries, but we need to know what they are before saying yest to anything. If TTIP is now scuppered then good riddance to it.
 

McTell

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No
Speak for yourself. I am running 2 from 2. Both were entirely predictable. What you are commenting on is the cognitive dissonance and misplaced self-regard of those who populate the media-political industry.

..yes, so it's best to plan for Le Pen. Thank god we have an infallible person on p.ie
 

Mad as Fish

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Marine Le Pen says there 'will be a Europe of free nations'.

I don't know how developed that concept is within the NF, but; if this resembles an area of continent-wide free travel, zero tariffs, free competitive trade in goods and services, with central disbursements to promote development locally, and humane provisions for States to regulate mass relocations of population; it will sell like hot cakes.

Angela Merkel suggests she is willing to compromise on free movement in the wake of Brexit
Anything from the NF has to be treated with the highest suspicion but there may be elements there that are welcome to those who distrust the unaccountable EU even more.
 

Dame_Enda

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If the EU breaks up we should seek closer ties with the US maybe including leasing a base to them. Hopefully the Republicans lead kg troops presence will erode Political Correctness in the country due to socialisation
 


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