Range of seats in next GE

Socratus O' Pericles

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Oct 12, 2009
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32,907
Ceann Conmhairle 1

Independents 3 (ish)

SP 1 (ish)

Greens 1 (ish)

SF 10(ish)

Lab 45 (ish)

FG 65(ish)

FF 40 (ish)

I would say an outcome in or around this should be about evens.
 


R

RepublicanSocialist1798

Ceann Conmhairle 1

Independents 3 (ish)

SP 1 (ish)

Greens 1 (ish)

SF 10(ish)

Lab 45 (ish)

FG 65(ish)

FF 40 (ish)

I would say an outcome in or around this should be about evens.
There'll be more independents I reckon. Lowry is definitely safe as cards and Luke "Ming" Flanagan and Catherine Murphy will easily get seats. Healy-Rae, O'Sullivan and Finian McGrath have fairly reasonable chances for retaining their seats.
It's the right figure for Labour. I can't see FG getting above 60 and FF getting 40 would definitely be the extreme worse case scenario.
 

EvotingMachine0197

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If it did turn out like that :

FG+LAB (110) probably biggest coalition majority ever ?

FF+LAB (85) only a +2 majority - very shaky.
 

redger

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This in an interesting one. From my looking, maybe you should be treating the PBP as a party seperate from the indos. I thing they in serious contention for 2 seats, just as many as the SP and prob the greens.

The SF one is also interesting. You'd assume that in rural areas and near the border, they are the natural home for large swathes of former FF voters. On the other hand, all their urban support could be under major attack From Labour. Have a look at what happened to DL in the Spring Tide as an example.

You must be looking at FF getting wiped out in Dublin, and I presume also Cork, Limerick galway and Waterford to get that figure. Just wondering how you figured it.
 

Socratus O' Pericles

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I don't think people realise how much FFare hated.Everybody I know (even former FF supporters) really has the boot in to them now.

I feel there will be a serious amount of retirments of senior figures before the inevitable pogrom and new FFwill have slim chances.
 

Keith-M

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Ceann Conmhairle 1

Independents 3 (ish) - More, perhaps as many as ten, but 6ish is more likely.

SP 1 (ish) - Yep a minimum of 1, max is 3.

Greens 1 (ish) - Somewhere between 0 and 2, so 1ish is good.

SF 10(ish) - Too high. 7ish is more likely.

Lab 45 (ish) - Hard to call, somewhere between 35 and 50. I'd call it 45ish on current polls.

FG 65(ish) - 60ish. There are not that many potential gains and in most of them Labour are also in with a shout.

FF 40 (ish) - More like 50ish right now. Likely to increase as the election nears.

I would say an outcome in or around this should be about evens.
 

Socratus O' Pericles

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There'll be more independents I reckon. Lowry is definitely safe as cards and Luke "Ming" Flanagan and Catherine Murphy will easily get seats. Healy-Rae, O'Sullivan and Finian McGrath have fairly reasonable chances for retaining their seats.
It's the right figure for Labour. I can't see FG getting above 60 and FF getting 40 would definitely be the extreme worse case scenario.
Mary Hanafin ,Barry Andrews, Conor Lenihan , Charlie O'Connor, Sean Ardagh ,Michael Mulcahy,Darragh O Brien to lose seats and that may not be all FF support to be less than 12% in the capital.
 

adamirer

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Mary Hanafin ,Barry Andrews, Conor Lenihan , Charlie O'Connor, Sean Ardagh ,Michael Mulcahy,Darragh O Brien to lose seats and that may not be all FF support to be less than 12% in the capital.
Every Dublin constituency will return one FF. Just a matter of who holds on and who goes.

FF 50-55 (more towards 55)
FG 60-65 (more towards 65)
Lab 30-35 (I don't see them doubling their representation, a very distant 3rd in most rural areas)
SF 5-7 (Donegal offset by possible loses in DSC and KN)
Green 1-3 (Sargent is the only safe one)
Soc: 1 - Joe Higgins only.
PBP: 0/1 (1 being DSC if and only if she's ahead of O'Snodaigh)
Ind 5-10
 
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Marcos the black

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I think it depends on what comes out between now and an election. If Joe Public still think that Lenihan is "the best of em" FF could come in or around 55. If people begin to realise just how screwed we really are, they could be really wiped out. FG's fortunes will reversely reflect this, and Labours to a lesser degree.
 

Future Irish Leader

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FG around 60
Labour between 40-45
Fianna fail 35-45
SF 6-7
Greens 1-2
independents 3-5

Labour fg coalition is onli certain option it would have a large mandate to govern.
Labour FF coalition unlikely, labour still remember the first coalition with fianna fail as a disaster that stunted their growth as a party. A shaky majority very unlikely.
No other coalitions popular labour will be the go to party to get into government.
 

Panopticon

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Ceann Conmhairle 1

Independents 3 (ish)

SP 1 (ish)

Greens 1 (ish)

SF 10(ish)

Lab 45 (ish)

FG 65(ish)

FF 40 (ish)

I would say an outcome in or around this should be about evens.
I would say you don't know what "evens" means. It means that this outcome has 40-50% probability of happening. Of course, if "ish" means "range of 10 about this value", then the prediction becomes meaningless.
 

deirdrem

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Labour fg coalition is onli certain option it would have a large mandate to govern.
Labour FF coalition unlikely, labour still remember the first coalition with fianna fail as a disaster that stunted their growth as a party. A shaky majority very unlikely.
No other coalitions popular labour will be the go to party to get into government.
So vote Labour for a FG government is it?

I think I'll pass on that one, but thanks anyway.

And I'll keep passing on it until Labour come up with a policy NOT to support FG or FF.
When they take that step, forcing a Fine Fáil government, I'll be happy to give a vote to Labour.
 

Crannog

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So vote Labour for a FG government is it?

I think I'll pass on that one, but thanks anyway.

And I'll keep passing on it until Labour come up with a policy NOT to support FG or FF.
When they take that step, forcing a Fine Fáil government, I'll be happy to give a vote to Labour.
Well said couldnt agree more
 

making waves

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FF 50-55 (more towards 55)
FF could lose one seat in every single constituency and there will be a number where they don't have any representation. FF will be lucky to come back with 45.
FG 60-65 (more towards 65)
Too high - momentum is behind the LP
Lab 30-35 (I don't see them doubling their representation, a very distant 3rd in most rural areas)
The LP could top 50 - every rural constituency has significant urban areas now and the LP will pick up significant votes in these towns.
SF 5-7 (Donegal offset by possible loses in DSC and KN)
I think SF could struggle a bit - they have run out of steam and they don't know why.
Green 1-3 (Sargent is the only safe one)
There is not one single seat that the GP could class as remotely safe - all of their TD's will take a thumping. Sargent has the best chance of holding, but it is an outside chance.
Soc: 1 - Joe Higgins only.
On a good day the Socialist Party will win three - I am expecting two DW and DN.
PBP: 0/1 (1 being DSC if and only if she's ahead of O'Snodaigh)
PBP are in the mix for two and DSC is a better chance than DL. The SWP could scupper Joan Collins chances with their antics but I expect her to win.
You are likely to see more than a couple FF TD's running for cover as indos but I suspect we could see a pletora of anti-cuts candidates, particularly in places where the HSE are shutting hospitals.
 

Northsideman

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Every Dublin constituency will return one FF. Just a matter of who holds on and who goes.
You are not living in the same Dublin as me. Even in DNC Sean Haughey will be in a dog fight for the last seat. Dublin will be a waste land for FF after the GE. Any FF person with their feet on the ground will testify to that.
 

controller

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Mary Hanafin ,Barry Andrews, Conor Lenihan , Charlie O'Connor, Sean Ardagh ,Michael Mulcahy,Darragh O Brien to lose seats and that may not be all FF support to be less than 12% in the capital.
Any FF who I have spoken to in North Dublin, expect Darragh to hold his seat, but expect Michael Kennedy to go.
 


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