Real story today: Combined FF/FG/LAB vote in Donegal SW less than 50%.

spotty

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Spotty was looking at the figures.

FF, FG, and Labour are the political establishment in our country. At the height of a national crisis, the three of them combined could not muster half of the votes in an election to parliament.

People can talk about the "special circumstances" of the election, or talk about candidates, or spin their party line. But the fact is that the three parties who dominate debate in the country, monopolise the airtime, and set the parameters of policy debate, just got whooped.

Whooped.

Spotty's view is that there is huge space out there for people like SF, the United Looney Alliance, and anyone else that comes forward between now and voting day to make huge inroads in the General Election. Our Party system is hugely vulnerable.

The opposition have only themselves to blame. Wasters.
 


Panopticon

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Aye. More interesting still is that Pringle got 10% of votes, and he is in what we might call the SF "gene pool". And SF still went like gangbusters. Very strong result for that party.
 

wombat

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Aye. More interesting still is that Pringle got 10% of votes, and he is in what we might call the SF "gene pool". And SF still went like gangbusters. Very strong result for that party.
Makes you wonder did FFers stay at home or did they switch?
 

Panopticon

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Makes you wonder did FFers stay at home or did they switch?
I did the numbers in work today when the tallymen's turnout and percent estimates converged to near-final figures. Essentially, it depends on what happened to the Fine Gael vote. I think the abstentions relative to 2007 were 50/50 FF/FG, about five thousand people in total. The rest of the Fianna Fáil vote went to Doherty, then Pringle and McBrearty.

The alternative scenario is that some of those FF voters stayed at home as well, instead of voting Doherty, and instead SF found some abstainers from 2007 who came out and voted.

Either way, most of FF's losses went directly to left-wing candidates.
 

newell666

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Delighted at this result and would love to see it replicated throughout the state.
It will not happen. Donegal IS different.
Having said that, I spoke to 2 lifelong FF civil war heritage type people in Galway recently and both said they would never vote for FF again, couldn't bring themselves to vote FG and would vote 1 SF, 2 independent (not Labour) as they felt a vote for Labour would be a vote for FG. Bottom line was they would not vote FF again but could NEVER vote FG or anyone who might support them in government.
 
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sport02

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Todays Bi-election follows the trend of the last national Red C POLL, FF were on 17% down from 41% in the last general election, which is a decline of 59%.

Today FF lost the same amount 59% in their vote in DSW compared to last time.

So if anybody has concrete figures on how many seats 17% nationally would give FF, that is a very safe figure of seats to put them on today, and it could actually be a little worse, now that the IMF is in.

So thankfully all is not bright and rosey in the FF camp.
 
G

Gimpanzee

Spotty is reading too much into it. Between this and the George Lee parade, its clear that the national spotlight on a bye-election has a positive feedback for the front runner. This was the Pearse Doherty show. The GE will be a different matter when Donegal folk don't see their candidates on telly.
 

davehiggz

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Doherty took the State to court to hold this bye-election and he won. A lot of the vote he won today was a thank you for the legal challenge.

Doherty will probably top the poll again early next year but I expect him to be nearer to 30% then, as opposed to 40%.

The General Election will be fought on the economic issues and I except both Fine Gael and Labour to do much better. FF will probably get a boost with Coughlan back on the ticket too. :(

Rough estimation is SF-33%, FF-25%, FG-20%, Labour-13%, Pringle/Others-9%.
 

MichaelMac

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The Pringle result was very impressive, an independent up against the big party machines. Too good to be an independent for long.
 

Fenian Óg

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Doherty took the State to court to hold this bye-election and he won. A lot of the vote he won today was a thank you for the legal challenge.

Doherty will probably top the poll again early next year but I expect him to be nearer to 30% then, as opposed to 40%.

The General Election will be fought on the economic issues and I except both Fine Gael and Labour to do much better. FF will probably get a boost with Coughlan back on the ticket too. :(

Rough estimation is SF-33%, FF-25%, FG-20%, Labour-13%, Pringle/Others-9%.
Not if the two muppets are running again.

God only knows where they were found.
 

SideysGhost

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The Pringle result was very impressive, an independent up against the big party machines. Too good to be an independent for long.
You have to wonder if SF could entice him back into the fold could they be in with a shout at two seats here??
 

FutureTaoiseach

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This is wonderful news. While opposed to SF on almost every issue, I cannot fault their counter-elitism, support for Irish Unity and Irish sovereignty in the face of the onslaught of the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels. If 2011 is not the latest false-dawn, we may finally see the breaking of a failed 90 year political-mould that has contributed nothing to Ireland but rack and ruin, spiralling crime rates, and the reconquest of Ireland by imperial-powers. I would prefer a rightwing Eurocritical party but even SF's Leftist brand of Euroscepticism will make it harder for the elite to argue for domination of the airwaves in EU referenda based on the Eurofederalist domination of Leinster House. By chipping away at that dominance, SF can contribute to "an Ireland of Equals" in terms of Euro-referendum airtime, in which both sides are granted parity of esteem on the national broadcaster and in terms of access of state-funding of referenda campaigns.
 

MichaelMac

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This is wonderful news. While opposed to SF on almost every issue, I cannot fault their counter-elitism, support for Irish Unity and Irish sovereignty in the face of the onslaught of the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels. If 2011 is not the latest false-dawn, we may finally see the breaking of a failed 90 year political-mould that has contributed nothing to Ireland but rack and ruin, spiralling crime rates, and the reconquest of Ireland by imperial-powers.

The shame of it all is that those who wrapped themselves in the flag and green jersey are the ones who have invited the imperialists back in.
 

wombat

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You have to wonder if SF could entice him back into the fold could they be in with a shout at two seats here??
Anything is possible in Donegal - remember the Deflector TD?:lol:
 

Pauli

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The result was a good result for SF, a great result for Pearse Doherty (and well deserved) and a kick for the FF/FG/Lab traditional establishment parties but I wouldn't expect this to be repeated across the board in a GE.

1. Pearse Doherty is the best candidate SF have in their party.
2. FF voters disenchanted with FF could abstain saife in the knowledge that by doing so, they'd send their party a message in a meaningless bye-election which is merely a dry run for a GE when they'll be back at the polling booth.
3. FG will run McGinley as a sole candidate and retain their seat.
4. McBrearty was a poor candidate and questions will be asked about Labour's idiosyncratic candidate selection in some constituencies (Mae Sexton, Davy Fitzgerald)
and finally
5. Can SF entice Pringle back? If so they could challenge for 2 seats here.
 

derm0t

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My only concern is that this hugely impressive win, coupled with the possibility that SF might win 15 seats or more in the 2011 election is inconsistent with their policy of slow and steady growth.
 

dustin

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Spotty was looking at the figures.

FF, FG, and Labour are the political establishment in our country. At the height of a national crisis, the three of them combined could not muster half of the votes in an election to parliament.

People can talk about the "special circumstances" of the election, or talk about candidates, or spin their party line. But the fact is that the three parties who dominate debate in the country, monopolise the airtime, and set the parameters of policy debate, just got whooped.

Whooped.

Spotty's view is that there is huge space out there for people like SF, the United Looney Alliance, and anyone else that comes forward between now and voting day to make huge inroads in the General Election. Our Party system is hugely vulnerable.

The opposition have only themselves to blame. Wasters.
So spotty if i put down the deposit i could go from rags to riches.:cool:
 

SideysGhost

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My only concern is that this hugely impressive win, coupled with the possibility that SF might win 15 seats or more in the 2011 election is inconsistent with their policy of slow and steady growth.
:lol:

Poor factual, I'd almost feel sorry for him/her. Almost.

Still though. What's the odds for a FG/SF coalition next time out?
 


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