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Recession


CookieMonster

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Feb 19, 2005
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34,801
Honestly, If I hear one more person mention this I am going to kill them in the face.
A few "high-tech" manufacturing jobs in a specific industry leaving does not a recession make.
 

EvotingMachine0197

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Feb 17, 2006
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8,629
It's not 'A few "high-tech" manufacturing jobs'.
It's a constant erosion of the manufacturing industry and the associated exports. This erosion is being replaced by services/construction. There is no stability in this.
 

hiker

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May 9, 2005
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EvotingMachine0197 said:
It's a constant erosion of the manufacturing industry and the associated exports. This erosion is being replaced by services/construction. There is no stability in this.


What manufacturing industry? :?

We dont have a manufacturing industry. We never had.
We jumped from an agrarian economy to a services economy. We skipped the manufactoring bit. How can you erode something you never had? :?


But. recession. Now there's a word I hav'nt heard in a long, long time, thank the gods.
 

CookieMonster

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34,801
No, and I don't want to hear it for a good long while into the future either.

I'm afraid it'll become a mantra for the moaners.
 

daithimac

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Apr 12, 2006
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@daveyawesome
Kill them in the face! I love it.

The economy is as good as gold for many years to come as long as the goverment does not bow to pressure and start putting up trade barriers to try prevent job losses
 

Salthill

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Jun 19, 2006
Messages
38
Is there a point in the last ten years when a recession wasn't being predicted?

Let's see what the situation is in six months time and then we'll know if these jobs are being lost to the country. The evidence last year was that this manufacturing activity is holding steady.

A politics site is generally the worst place to go if you want a serious economic discussion. If there's a change of government we'll immediately see the hacks change tack to replace their pessimist/optimist opponents.
 

Fr. Hank Tree

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Feb 1, 2007
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5,907
daithimac said:
Kill them in the face! I love it.

The economy is as good as gold for many years to come as long as the goverment does not bow to pressure and start putting up trade barriers to try prevent job losses
Maybe your correct, but the damage inflation is doing to our competitiveness is a major worry. When you add to that the energy challenges up ahead we cannot afford to be complacent. Without a doubt proctectionism is not an option. The proportion of our GNP growth attributable to exports has declined steeply in the last few years. Something like 25% of males are employed in construction (which is categorised as being manufacturing or secondary economic activity BTW).
 

CookieMonster

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Feb 19, 2005
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34,801
Ah now, if I wanted a serious economic discussion I'd kill myself in the face.

*shudder*
 

feargach

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Dec 11, 2006
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4,995
I don't think a recession is likely, but it would be good to have a disaster recovery plan for employing construction workers if the bottom does fall out.

It's not as if there aren't millions of public works projects badly needing their input.
 

Sidewinder

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Oct 23, 2004
Messages
442
feargach said:
I don't think a recession is likely, but it would be good to have a disaster recovery plan for employing construction workers if the bottom does fall out.

It's not as if there aren't millions of public works projects badly needing their input.
Problem is, for a lot of construction workers, the skills are completely different and non-transferable between domestic housing and large public works projects.

Aside: I love the way all the gung-ho cheerleaders of never-ending boomier Tigertastic times ahead are vocally proud of their economic ignorance.

Truly, the barbarians are at the gate.
 

Sidewinder

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Oct 23, 2004
Messages
442
Ponzi said:
That was the old capitalism, the new capitalism is much more user friendly, plus ignorance is bliss.
It's a new paradigm! :lol:
 

Universal_001

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Apr 7, 2006
Messages
222
daithimac said:
Kill them in the face! I love it.

The economy is as good as gold for many years to come as long as the goverment does not bow to pressure and start putting up trade barriers to try prevent job losses
Boom has to stop eventually, and when it does we have nothing to fall back on, no substantial native industry, in fact we have a huge services industry..the first thing hit in any economic downturn..
 

zakalwe

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Joined
Oct 20, 2005
Messages
171
well, paul krugman and stephen roach have been predicting a world wide recession following a currency crisis since 2002.

indeed when i was finishing my *ahem* masters in economics, all the professors (and a certain rodney thom in particular) were gleefully predicting the end of the celtic tiger (around 2000).
i don't know which sticks in their kraw more, that they got it wrong or that david mcwilliams has had more milage resulting from the new economic conditions.

the prophets of doom know that they will get published by playing on people's fears, such as "economic meltdown" and "property crash". if they were as half as good at investing in the irish economy as predicting disaster then the whole bunch of them would be millionaires many times over. yet they're not, strangely. why is that? are they not as good as they say?

i know that the neoclassical theory of the "new economy" is flawed and overly optimistic yet no other model (especially a keynesian one) can explain the global performance for the last 20 odd years.
 

doheochai

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Nov 7, 2005
Messages
61
zakalwe said:
well, paul krugman and stephen roach have been predicting a world wide recession following a currency crisis since 2002.

indeed when i was finishing my *ahem* masters in economics, all the professors (and a certain rodney thom in particular) were gleefully predicting the end of the celtic tiger (around 2000).
i don't know which sticks in their kraw more, that they got it wrong or that david mcwilliams has had more milage resulting from the new economic conditions.

the prophets of doom know that they will get published by playing on people's fears, such as "economic meltdown" and "property crash". if they were as half as good at investing in the irish economy as predicting disaster then the whole bunch of them would be millionaires many times over. yet they're not, strangely. why is that? are they not as good as they say?

i know that the neoclassical theory of the "new economy" is flawed and overly optimistic yet no other model (especially a keynesian one) can explain the global performance for the last 20 odd years.
Ye of little faith - make sure you have a good helmet because it's going to bring the whole house of cards crashing down and sooner that you think too.
 

Ponzi

Member
Joined
Apr 15, 2006
Messages
58
zakalwe said:
well, paul krugman and stephen roach have been predicting a world wide recession following a currency crisis since 2002.

indeed when i was finishing my *ahem* masters in economics, all the professors (and a certain rodney thom in particular) were gleefully predicting the end of the celtic tiger (around 2000).
i don't know which sticks in their kraw more, that they got it wrong or that david mcwilliams has had more milage resulting from the new economic conditions.

the prophets of doom know that they will get published by playing on people's fears, such as "economic meltdown" and "property crash". if they were as half as good at investing in the irish economy as predicting disaster then the whole bunch of them would be millionaires many times over. yet they're not, strangely. why is that? are they not as good as they say?

i know that the neoclassical theory of the "new economy" is flawed and overly optimistic yet no other model (especially a keynesian one) can explain the global performance for the last 20 odd years.

How about the impact of globalisation, hyper cheap labour, labour market arbitrage, Japanese deflation, the Yen carry trade, the new 'risk free' derivatives markets and a wall of money liquidity.
 

Sidewinder

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Joined
Oct 23, 2004
Messages
442
zakalwe said:
indeed when i was finishing my *ahem* masters in economics, all the professors (and a certain rodney thom in particular) were gleefully predicting the end of the celtic tiger (around 2000).
i don't know which sticks in their kraw more, that they got it wrong or that david mcwilliams has had more milage resulting from the new economic conditions.
But the Celtic Tiger did die in 2000. There was a serious slowdown in early 2001. And then along came the Great Liquidity Splurge engineered by Greenspan and Duisenberg.

Everything since 2001 has been fuelled by humungous, unparalleled waves of extremely cheap credit causing an explosion in consumer spending and property investment all over the West, all paid for by massive amounts of personal debt.

From the early 90s to 2000, the Irish economy experienced export-led growth. Real growth, based on solid fundamentals. Since 2000, it's all been property and services fuelled by debt in an unprecendented rock-bottom IR environment. This is unstable, and unsustainable.

Look at the screeching when the ECB raises rates by 0.25%. Rates are still, historically, extremely low. If ECB rates went even to 5%, what do you think would happen in Ireland? Our Frankenstein economy would completely collapse, that's what. At a mere 5%. That's how dangerously unbalanced our economy is.
 
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