Red C Analysis



gijoe

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Isn't Cavan Monaghan a 4 seater next time? Louth got the 5th seat although with the CC it is really a 4 seater.

PS I just checked, I was wrong it is a 5 seater.
 

locke

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Interesting analysis.

One thing I'm not sure you take into account is the effect of FF running too many candidates.

For example, in Cork East, if FF run two and get 18%, split the vote 10%-8% and only achieve a 65% internal transfer rate, they would fall short of FG2 if FG get their vote management bang on.
 
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dotski_w_

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Interesting analysis.

One thing I'm not sure you take into account is the effect of FF running too many candidates.

For example, in Cork East, if FF run two and get 18%, split the vote 10%-8% and only achieve a 65% internal transfer rate, they could fall short of FG2 if FG get their vote management bang on.
Ta.

Yes, I've been cautious to avoid making that assumption too much, except where I'm certain it'll happen, as I think there'll be a few retirements that will sort out those issues, but yes there and in Dun Laoghaire it could be a factor. On balance though they are so so low it's hard to believe that they are doing even this badly....
 

gijoe

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In reality the polls overstate the Green vote consistently because of its concentration in the younger age groups which then do not actually show up to vote in anything like the numbers of older voters. Consequently I reckon that in reality even at 4% in the poll they will actually return no seat.
 

grassroots

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Where will Labour get the money to run a national campaign. Say 70 candidates at 20 grand a piece=1.4million.
 

dotski_w_

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In reality the polls overstate the Green vote consistently because of its concentration in the younger age groups which then do not actually show up to vote in anything like the numbers of older voters. Consequently I reckon that in reality even at 4% in the poll they will actually return no seat.
Possibly, they certainly poll better in RedC for some reason they averaged 7% (up to 8%) in them in the run up to the last GE, whereas MRBI , Lansdowne and Millward/Brown were all more accurate at 5 or 6% (they got 4.7%). Tommy O'Brien presumably would say this was RedC bing right, and the methodology of the others and the Dept of Local Govt using "flawed methodology"...!

I'm not sure though that the current GP crop of voters are so young though - 4 years ago, maybe, but I think that if they've stood still they've lost younger/more radical voters and gained a few of my generation who actually think being in govt and trying to get some of your policies in is worthwhile.
 

factual

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For those who are interested, my constituency analysis of Sunday's poll is now up

RedC Analysis Oct 2010 « Irish Polling Report

Headlines figures are as follows;

FG 61
LP 57
FF 27
SF 7
GP 3
OTH 11
From a SF point of view this is pretty encouraging. When you consider that SF are currently on 4 this is a good increase in percentage terms. It allows for a fresh intake of TDs, and, importantly, the formation of a technical group, without being such a large increase that it is too hard for the party to integrate with the existing team. The number (a rise of 3) is a sustainable rise - allowing SF to be able to devote the resources to put down roots in each of the constituencies concerned. Steady long term organic increases are better than the kind of unsustainable increases that other parties have achieved (in their cases by FF voters lending their vote on a temporary basis).
 

spidermom

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Dotski thinks that DSW will not return either the "brudder" or "Mr Tallaman"!!

Off to bed with happy face!!

(we shall see on GE day!!)
 

Morte

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Very interesting, though I must admit I'll only believe Brian Lenihan and Dermot Ahern losing out when I see it.
 

Nonsence & lies

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The ff folks in clare would be delighted to get 1 seat, their not confident about achieving that at all. Their looking at a lot of job loses and the DAA destroyng shannon airport by stealing business to help with filling terminal 2 in dublin. Air India were more or less told choose dublin or go elsewhere. Killeen and Dooley are hardly inspiring.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Sorry, I could only get to Dublin Mid-West this time, I was just laughing too much to continue. Examples of this hilarity include saying FG have only one outgoing TD in Cavan-Monaghan, which is true but ignores the fact that they also have a Senator, who polled more votes without getting elected than anyone else in the country last time, (9,550 first preferences), Cork East, where FG with 2 outgoing Oireachtas members will see their vote unchanged while Labour's nearly doubles, and the Green and SF transfers favouring Labour enough to win a seat over over FG in Cork SW despite there being only a couple of hundred votes in the balance in 2007 (and of course not knowing the location of the 2nd FG candidate). But when I got to Dublin MidWest, and read that Keating would lose Independent voters because he'd joined FG (despite him getting 1,400 more votes in a LOCAL election for FG than a general election as an Independent), and that FG would only poll 23% despite polling 21% in Clondalkin and 35% in Lucan in 2009, on the exact same national vote share. Oh, and FG's two candidates are known in the constituency for a long time, and Labour haven't even picked a second candidate yet.

So at that point, I gave up. Sorry Dotski, but you're still doing this through Labour-tinted spectacles, and in particular you're ignoring virtually every upside possibility for FG, in virtually every constituency. I could do the same analysis from an FG perspective - and yes, it'd be biased too. But at least I wouldn't pretend it wasn't.
 

DAZ14

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Labour seats

Labour I reckon are overstated in the polls. Supposed to get 24% in 2009 locals got 14%. Likely to get around 15-17% in election giving them around 28-32 seats. Anyone share these thoughts?
 


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