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flavirostris

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Dec 21, 2007
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24,588
New Red C Poll out, showing kind of similar figures to GE 2016. FF slip behind FG but neither of them doing particularly well. Small bounce for SF. Labour absolutely moribund. Greens doing ok and Independents gain slightly as well.


POLL: SBP/Red C
(Nov 21-23, MoE ±3%)
FG 25
FF 24(-2/4wks)
SF 16(+3)
Ind 12(+2)
Lab 5
AAAPBP5 (-4)
IA 4(-2)
SD 4(+1)
Grn 3
Renua 1(+1)
Ors 1
 

Breanainn

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The SDs will be relieved after the embarrassment of their B&A absence, probably a more realistic state of how the left in general lies after last month's AAA-PBP surge.
 

ainm_eile

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The SDs will be relieved after the embarrassment of their B&A absence, probably a more realistic state of how the left in general lies after last month's AAA-PBP surge.
If tracking the left, it's better to look at the total combined vote: SD+ SF+ AAA + etc. Filters out real or spurious shifts in allegiance within the same broad pool, by removing this source of variation you get more stable results and a smaller MOE.

For the same reason you should track FF+FG+LAB when looking at the strength of "the Establishment".
 

flavirostris

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If you add all the odds & sods, it's 30% of the electorate.
 

freewillie

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If tracking the left, it's better to look at the total combined vote: SD+ SF+ AAA + etc. Filters out real or spurious shifts in allegiance within the same broad pool, by removing this source of variation you get more stable results and a smaller MOE.

For the same reason you should track FF+FG+LAB when looking at the strength of "the Establishment".
You are assuming SF is a left wing party. Go to West Tyrone or South Armagh and see how that equal distribution of income ************************e would be received.
 

Breanainn

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If tracking the left, it's better to look at the total combined vote: SD+ SF+ AAA + etc. Filters out real or spurious shifts in allegiance within the same broad pool, by removing this source of variation you get more stable results and a smaller MOE.

For the same reason you should track FF+FG+LAB when looking at the strength of "the Establishment".
Indeed, the parties cancel each other out, that 9% figure always seemed an outlier.
 

Analyzer

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Conclusion. We will be just as fukt after any snap general election, as we are now.
 

Analyzer

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The only thing to be optimist about is that a substantial percentage of thos polled told the pollster to bugger off, or else answered "not impressed with any of them" ( officially described as "don't knows" ).
 

jmcc

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Wonder if RedC is still using that "likelihood to vote of 80% or greater" stuff? And where did it find the Labour voter?
 

hiding behind a poster

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Irish politics is basically in a holding pattern at the moment, there won't be much change in poll figures until Kenny's successor is in situ.
 

Dame_Enda

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Elites suffering continues. No return to the closed shop of FF-FG-Lab. The Soldiers of Pretensity fooling no-one playing hokey-pokey with water charges.
 

Polybius

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There is no party in Ireland that fills me with any confidence. Ireland needs a party that is anti-globalisation and against mass migration. It's the only way to preserve our nation and identity but also the only way to maintain a decent standard of living for the working class.
 

midlander12

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Given that the FF/FG pact seems to have solidified, these polls are increasingly pointless. It's always instructive however to look at the sheer weakness of the left, almost a decade since the recession kicked in and with large numbers of people still in a much less prosperous place than before it. Even including 5% of the 12% independent vote as 'left' (which is generous), you are still looking at only 30% in total for them (I take it most people would not include Lab, the Greens and the IA within 'the left').
 

Dame_Enda

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The SD questioning the Swedish model represents a sort-of anti SM grouping in the Dail including the Greens and AAAPBP, and some Inds like Catherine Connolly.
 

Breanainn

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The SD questioning the Swedish model represents a sort-of anti SM grouping in the Dail including the Greens and AAAPBP, and some Inds like Catherine Connolly.
The prostitution question's hardly top of the voting agenda, though!
 

midlander12

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The SD questioning the Swedish model represents a sort-of anti SM grouping in the Dail including the Greens and AAAPBP, and some Inds like Catherine Connolly.
I'm afraid to ask what 'anti-SM' means but given that Shortall and Connolly are involved, I'd imagine it's relatively unexotic.
 

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