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Red C poll - FF to retain seats


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FutureTaoiseach

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Fianna Fail is set to win 2 out of 3 seats in Roscommon-South Leitrim - in spite of a lower share of the vote than FG - according to a new Red C poll.:

The Roscommon Herald/Red C opinion poll shows that Fine Gael, with 41%, Is set to have a higher first preference vote than Fianna Fáil, at 37%.

However, because of a more even spread of votes between the two FF candidates and the likelihood it will pick up more transfers, the poll predicts that it will narrowly prevail in the three-seat constituency....Labour’s Hughie Baxter is at 3%, while Garreth McDaid of the Green Party (a son of Donegal TD Jim McDaid) is at 1%.
 

White Horse

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Another strong vote for Fine Gael in a local opinion poll.

This is a very consistent trend and will lead to a huge increase in seats if replicated on election day.
 

FutureTaoiseach

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On the contrary it is yet another example of FG failing to translate an increase in their vote into additional seats. If replicated elsewhere - as other polls indicate it will be - then a very disappointing election awaits for FG.
 

Wolverine

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As an aside, isn't it interesting that FT is whooping it up for Fianna Fail? So much for the PDs being an independent party - after 10 years in bed with Fianna Fail they're obviously starting to melt back into the larger party.
 

CorkHurler

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I believe a TG4 / MRBI polls in Cork NW shows 2 FF and 1 FG, I'll post the full details later. It is the 11th constituency poll in a row showing no gain for FG. I'm sure Harry W will be able to enlighten as to how it really means that FG are on course to romp to victory (with the obligatory personal insults thrown in for good measure).
 

FutureTaoiseach

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Wolverine said:
As an aside, isn't it interesting that FT is whooping it up for Fianna Fail? So much for the PDs being an independent party - after 10 years in bed with Fianna Fail they're obviously starting to melt back into the larger party.
No we are not. I'm just stating the facts as they are were they different I would say so. However I'm not going to deny the reality that it is unlikely the PDs can get back into office after this election unless FF perform strongly in terms of seats.
 

rover

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i dont know what the figures were for the last election.........but this is another huge boost in support for fine gael without a doubt

naughten 27%
feighan 14% (losing out by a "tiny margin" according to the examiner)

all they have to do is manage the vote by a "tiny margin" and fg get 2 seats :lol:
 

apkavanagh

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To be honest, I don't think FFers should make too much of this poll, especially given the usual degree of error in these polls and also the fact that constituency polls tend to favour the incumbents usually, e.g. Naughten, Finneran and Ellis. If anything, FF should be worried in that (i) poll suggests a rather large swing toward FG in this constituency, (ii) it looks as if FF vote in Roscommon has particularly bottomed out: maybe if FG had added Gerry Reynolds to the ticket, the FF vote might have come in under 30%

Based on tally estimates, the share of the vote won by each party in what is now Roscommon-South Leitrim was: FF 42%, FG 34%, LAB 1%, SF 6%, GP 1%, IND 16%
I think the basic point here is: all to play for.
 

apkavanagh

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rover said:
Garreth McDaid of the Green Party (a son of Donegal drunk Jim McDaid) is at 1%
:lol:
Not hilarious but below the belt. Can we stick to the issues and keep away from personal attacks, especially relating to politicians who aren't in this constituency.
 

White Horse

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FutureTaoiseach said:
On the contrary it is yet another example of FG failing to translate an increase in their vote into additional seats. If replicated elsewhere - as other polls indicate it will be - then a very disappointing election awaits for FG.
ANY experienced political operator knows that seats follow votes. It may not happen in every constituency but if replicated nationally, FG will get a huge increase in seats.
 

apkavanagh

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apkavanagh said:
To be honest, I don't think FFers should make too much of this poll, especially given the usual degree of error in these polls and also the fact that constituency polls tend to favour the incumbents usually, e.g. Naughten, Finneran and Ellis.

If anything, FF should be worried in that (i) poll suggests a rather large swing toward FG in this constituency, (ii) it looks as if FF vote in Roscommon has particularly bottomed out: maybe if FG had added Gerry Reynolds to the ticket, the FF vote might have come in under 30%

Based on tally estimates, the share of the vote won by each party in what is now Roscommon-South Leitrim was: FF 42%, FG 34%, LAB 1%, SF 6%, GP 1%, IND 16%

I think the basic point here is: all to play for.
 

Respvblica

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CorkHurler said:
I believe a TG4 / MRBI polls in Cork NW shows 2 FF and 1 FG, I'll post the full details later. It is the 11th constituency poll in a row showing no gain for FG.
Fair enough so what if we got something like 28% of the popular vote but get stuck on 18% of the seats! That would signify that FG were more transfer repellent than FF.
We obviously need more transfers from the left which I'm assuming that we dont seem to be getting from these polls. Or else if only FF could resurrect Charlie Haughey again :(
 

Oldira

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If FG get 41% and FF get 37% you can take it as read that FG will gain a seat. You cannot rely on such a small sample with respect to allocating transfers. If Leitrim people had any sense they would plump for Kenny instead of Ellis. Ellis is transfer repellant in Roscommon and unless he is close to the quota on the first count he is toast (yipeeeee!!). John Kelly is from NW Roscommon so a large part of his transfers will go to Feighan who is roughly from the same part.
 

The Analyser

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Garreth McDaid of the Green Party (a son of Donegal drunk Jim McDaid) is at 1%
An unfair personal attack. Please don't stoop to that level.
 

kerrynorth

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The actual main figures I believe are as follows:

Naughton fg 27%
Finneran ff 19%
Ellis ff 18%
Feighan fg 14%
Kenny sf 9%
Kelly ind 9% (may have name wrong Indo endorsed by Roscommon Hospital Action Group)
Others 6%

With Ellis/Kenny both Leitrim candidates with more than a quota between them you would have to believe that Ellis will make it for seat. Despite polling 41% FG would not make the gain unless Feighan can catch Finneran!
 

Eddiepops

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rover said:
Garreth McDaid of the Green Party (a son of Donegal drunk Jim McDaid) is at 1%
:lol:
:( He did only enter the race very recently. Also I was talking to a young green recently who said that an older woman they were canvassing to vote for Gareth was receptive until she heard he was Jim's son - then she said she could never vote for a McDaid "after the way that man treated his wife"! Streuth
 

The Trinity Politick

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kerrynorth said:
The actual main figures I believe are as follows:

Naughton fg 27%
Finneran ff 19%
Ellis ff 18%
Feighan fg 14%
Kenny sf 9%
Kelly ind 9% (may have name wrong Indo endorsed by Roscommon Hospital Action Group)
Others 6%
If these are the figures, FG have 2 seats. No question. Ridiculous to assume otherwise. Vote management will swing into action during the campaign as people are urged to spread the vote. Dont you worry folks. 2 FG and another step to government.
 

hiding behind a poster

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FutureTaoiseach said:
On the contrary it is yet another example of FG failing to translate an increase in their vote into additional seats. If replicated elsewhere - as other polls indicate it will be - then a very disappointing election awaits for FG.
Are you basing this assumption on another miniscule subset of transfers, FT? :roll:

Here's a thought - if Irish politics were like American politics, and there was a campaign HQ for each major party in each constituency, staffed by enthusiastic youngsters and grizzled older heads, then tell me this - which HQ in Roscommon/Sth Leitrim would today have a huge adrenaline surge, and a fresh burst of enthusiasm and optimism, based on this poll? And which HQ would have a predominatly "Oh sh*t" mood in it?
 

kerrynorth

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The Trinity Politick said:
kerrynorth said:
The actual main figures I believe are as follows:

Naughton fg 27%
Finneran ff 19%
Ellis ff 18%
Feighan fg 14%
Kenny sf 9%
Kelly ind 9% (may have name wrong Indo endorsed by Roscommon Hospital Action Group)
Others 6%
If these are the figures, FG have 2 seats. No question. Ridiculous to assume otherwise. Vote management will swing into action during the campaign as people are urged to spread the vote. Dont you worry folks. 2 FG and another step to government.
Afraid not, there is a Leitrim seat for Ellis as Kenny will transfer decisively to him on that basis. The Indo's vote could split all over the place. FF are still in prime position for 2!
 
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