RedC November '10 poll - constituency projections

dotski_w_

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Folks,

I've posted my spreadsheet projections based on the recent RedC poll at RedC – Nov 2010 projections « Irish Polling Report

Before you read them, past experience suggests I should point out (again)

1. These are projections of the norm, each constituency would, in practice, deviate from the norm to at least some degree.

2. The projections are an average of (a) the uniform swing in the vote for each party, (b) the uniform swing of the vote NOT for each party, and (c) the percentage of the "Spring Tide" experienced in each area in '92, the last time we had swings of significant magnitude affecting LP positively and FF negatively. There are also adjustments for local factors, and the distribution of the PD votes.

3. It's not a portal into the future.

4. The poll was taken before the IMF marched in.

5. FG supporters always hate this thing, even when it shows them becoming the largest party for the first time. The last one resulted in a tirade from one poster (allegedly retired from p.ie) who, among other things, said the polls over-stated LP because of the Bradley effect ! A comprehensive rebuttal is at Who fears to speak of ’92? « Irish Polling Report

D
 


Machdaddy

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Oct 18, 2009
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Folks,

I've posted my spreadsheet projections based on the recent RedC poll at RedC – Nov 2010 projections « Irish Polling Report

Before you read them, past experience suggests I should point out (again)

1. These are projections of the norm, each constituency would, in practice, deviate from the norm to at least some degree.

2. The projections are an average of (a) the uniform swing in the vote for each party, (b) the uniform swing of the vote NOT for each party, and (c) the percentage of the "Spring Tide" experienced in each area in '92, the last time we had swings of significant magnitude affecting LP positively and FF negatively. There are also adjustments for local factors, and the distribution of the PD votes.

3. It's not a portal into the future.

4. The poll was taken before the IMF marched in.

5. FG supporters always hate this thing, even when it shows them becoming the largest party for the first time. The last one resulted in a tirade from one poster (allegedly retired from p.ie) who, among other things, said the polls over-stated LP because of the Bradley effect ! A comprehensive rebuttal is at Who fears to speak of ’92? « Irish Polling Report

D
Dude your stats projected 106 seats for fg/lab.should be 116 with a majority of 50 not 40
 

Panopticon

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Lab in Laois-Offaly. Why do they get anything at all when they have hardly anyone in the county? I am sorry, but politics is not as it used to be, and these factors matter when we have big swings.
 

TradCat

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Dude your stats projected 106 seats for fg/lab.should be 116 with a majority of 50 not 40
It's an outrageous majority. Too many people with no jobs. Not healthy but can't be avoided. Unless FF disband.
 

TommyO'Brien

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The last one resulted in a tirade from one poster (allegedly retired from p.ie) who, among other things, said the polls over-stated LP because of the Bradley effect !

D
The Shy Tory Effect! Jesus. Can you not even get that right.:rolleyes: The Shy Tory Effect is where some supporters of a highly unpopular party deceive pollsters by hiding their real intentions and declaring for the party perceived as most popular with swing voters or moving voters.

It happens regularly in political systems. BTW your own party also believes that some of those who are declaring they will vote Labour but in the privacy of the polling booth will vote Fianna Fáil.

Oh and BTW your analysis yet again takes into account none of the key features of Irish elections - including extreme localism, candidate appeal and a voter base that votes per candidate in spite of who the candidate's party is. As all parties know, that will save some FF seats and deny Labour some seats, because FF will be running candidates with a built up personal base, whereas Labour will have a lot of new candidates who have yet to build up personal loyal votes.
 

Cato

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It's an outrageous majority. Too many people with no jobs. Not healthy but can't be avoided. Unless FF disband.
Indeed. It is unhealthy for a government to have that size of a majority. The opposition will be too small to make much of an impact. Further the discipline of the government TDs will also be flakey with backbenchers feeling free to oppose government policy as the majority is so big.

That being said it may make for a very stable government as long as the leaderships of both parties can stay onside with each other.
 

dotski_w_

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Lab in Laois-Offaly. Why do they get anything at all when they have hardly anyone in the county? I am sorry, but politics is not as it used to be, and these factors matter when we have big swings.
Yeah, but happens when you get this level of swing - I discuss it a bit in Who fears to speak of ’92? « Irish Polling Report but yes, unless they run Cllr Pat Bowe from Mountmellick, they'd either be running a newbie or a blow-in. A fair few newbies did very well though in '92, with LP much lower in the polls than now though. At the end of the day there's a significant numerb of voters who want to vote LP/Gilmore and there's enough in L/O, on these figures to pull in the final seat.

Might not happen of course, but they're best placed at present, particularly when competing with SF for the last seat who don't even have that single county council seat that LP do.]

EDIT : Sorry just saw that Brian Stanley in Portlaoise is SF.
 

dotski_w_

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It's an outrageous majority. Too many people with no jobs. Not healthy but can't be avoided. Unless FF disband.
I'd agree it would be a big problem for them - you'd certainly need to look at Oireachtas reform to keep them busy at proper work. the devil makes work and all that....
 

greengreen

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This poll is way of the mark in Galway west and east. In west an internal FG pollleaked to Galway Advertiser has FF on 32% and easily keeping their 2. In East their top vote getter (Connaughton) is thinking of standing down and their best hope for a gain-Barton dosen,t want to run. Also Labour miles back here candidate got about 2000 in locals way behind indos. I'd say FF 3 maybe even keeping 4 out of 9 in both. FG 3. Lab 1 Ind 1/2
 

holymoley

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Will only comment on my own constituency for now, that is Kildare North.

As much as I would like to believe ff will not win anything, this like many areas is ff heartland and they will win one seat (only 10% in kn will never happen, although i'd liked to be proved wrong). too many of staggs transfers will go to murphy instead of the second candidate for labour as they are from similar areas. Wouldn't write off a second seat for fg, which i would see as more likely than ff losing 2 seats (but still unlikely).

Prediction: 1 lab, 1 ind, 1 fg, 1 ff (elected in this order)

Fair play for putting so much work into it
 

TommyO'Brien

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Actually well aware of that Tommy, but you also quoted the Bradley effect - are you denying that now?
I pointed out that distorting effects exist in politics, eg, the Bradley Effect, the Shy Tory Effect, etc. I did not say that Labour would experience the Bradley Effect. Why did you try to mislead posters here as to what I said, in your original post?
 

neiphin

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thank you
 

dotski_w_

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I pointed out that distorting effects exist in politics, eg, the Bradley Effect, the Shy Tory Effect, etc. I did not say that Labour would experience the Bradley Effect.
LOL! You listed reasons the polls couldn't be beleived, and included the Bradley effect (I had to re-read it twice before I believed you'd included it). you also stated that one couldn't extrapolate likely seat totals from national polls, and then went on to say what national seat totals for parties were impossible, based on "what everyone knows"!

But all your (it has to be said, quite hysterical) rantings from the last time would have, if true, made what happened in '92 impossible. Another poster called you rude, but I just laughed, it was one of your funniest posts ever.

More substantial rebuttal, as I say, here Who fears to speak of ’92? « Irish Polling Report
 
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gijoe

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Surely in Dublin North the SF transfers will give the seat to SP over GP?
 
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Very interesting spreadsheet. From what I know of Cork southwest, I doubt Labour will take the third seat . Fine Gael should hold on for 2
 


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