A poll conducted by RedC Research for Paddy Power shows that Sinn Fein's Pearse Doherty is on target to take the seat in the Donegal South West by-election which takes place tomorrow week.
The RedC poll conducted between 12th and 16th of November polled 510 people over 18 randomly and shows that Doherty is on target to take 40% of the first preferences. Fianna Fail's Brian O’Domhnaill is on target to take 19% of first preferences, followed by Barry O'Neill on 15% and Frank McBrearty on 14%. RedC have pointed out that after transfers have taken place, McBrearty overtakes O'Neill.
Pearse Doherty SF 40% Brian O’Domhnaill FF 19% Barry O'Neill FG 15% Frank McBrearty Lab 14%
As a result, and as noted earlier by Politics.ie users, Paddy Power have shortened the odds on Doherty taking the seat from 1/5 to 1/8.
Latest paddypower.com Betting
1/8 Pearse Doherty (SF) 9/2 Brian O'Domhnaill (FF) 9/1 Barry O'Neill (FG) 14/1 Frank McBrearty Jr. (Lab) 40/1 Thomas Pringle (Ind) 50/1 Anne Sweeney 150/1 Green Candidate
Best Taoiseach after Next General Election
Irrespective of which party you support, which of the main party leaders do you believe would make the best Taoiseach for Ireland after the next general election?
Eamon Gilmore 46% Enda Kenny 18% Brian Cowen 13% None of these 13% Don't know 10%
When you look at first and second preference, you can see that Doherty is incredibly strong on 2nd prefs, almost 1/5 of second preferences go to him. Frank McBrearty seems marginally more transfer friendly on 2nd preferences. Just 10% of second prefs go to Fianna Fail.
- Senator Pearse Doherty looks as if he will win the by-election to be held next week in Donegal South West by some margin, taking 40% of the first preference vote in today's Paddy Power/RED C by-election poll.
- Brian O’Domhnaill takes the next highest share of the vote in the poll, securing 19% of the first preference vote. However, relatively poor second preference transfers suggest even after the count he is unlikely to trouble the Sinn Fein candidate.
- Barry O’Neill, Fine Gael and Frank McBrearty Junior, Labour; both secure a similar share of first preference vote in the constituency at 15% and 14% respectively, but initial analyses of transfers suggests McBrearty will end up ahead.
- While the current by-election may influence voters choices somewhat, when asked about a general election Sinn Fein again do well, securing 31% of the first preference vote, an increase of 10% when compared to their performance in 2007.
- Labour also make good gains in the constituency in terms of a general election, with their first preference share ahead of their by-election showing at 18%. This represents a significant increase of 15% share since 2007.
- This surge in support for Labour is perhaps influenced by voters preferred choice for Taoiseach, in which Eamonn Gilmore is preferred by almost half (46%) of all voters in the constituency.
- Fianna Fail are the big losers in terms of a potential general election showing, with a 1st preference share of just 19%, down 32% since the last general election. While part of this may be due to the fact that Mary Coughlan is not of course involved in the
by-election it doesn’t bode well for the party should an election be called in the near future.
- Fine Gael may be disappointed to only take 25% share, a modest increase of just 2% since 2007, and this may persuade them to only run one candidate at the next election, as the two candidate approach appears to split the vote somewhat.
- This relatively weak showing by Fine Gael, despite the collapse of the Fianna Fail vote, like Labour could somewhat be attributed to voters preferred choice of Taoiseach, where Enda Kenny is preferred by only 1 in 5 (18%) of all voters in the constituency.
So what if this was a poll for the General Election, with 3 seats up for grabs, it appears to me that i would be Doherty (SF), McBreaty (Lab) and a dogfight between FG and FF for the last seat, could the Tanaiste lose her seat?