RedC / Sun poll projections

dotski_w_

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For those who are interested, constituency projections from the RedC/Sun poll at

December Sun « Irish Polling Report

Special mention for whoever predicts how long it takes Tommy to respond, using the phrase "Shy Tory" in something he cuts and pastes from his previous rantings.... ;)
 


hiding behind a poster

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From your report, Dotski:

This indicates I think that while there’s a large body of opinion out there that want Gilmore to lead the next Govt, a significant wodge of that wouldn’t like them to prop up FG, and want an ‘angrier’ reaction to recent events.
Don't think you're gonna enjoy the polls in this Sunday's papers, in that case. :lol:
 

Red_93

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For those who are interested, constituency projections from the RedC/Sun poll at

December Sun « Irish Polling Report

Special mention for whoever predicts how long it takes Tommy to respond, using the phrase "Shy Tory" in something he cuts and pastes from his previous rantings.... ;)
Dot, can I just point out to people who keep using this lazy argument that you only see the best side for labour. In your last set of predictions you had labour on 29% with SF on 14%, and giving the seat to SF. That is not the absolute best result for labour under the figures. Good work there though Dot. Haven't read throuhg them all but at least it gives us a good idea of how the Dáil might look after the next GE.

BTW, anyone reckon SF are now suffering from a bit of shy tory themselves?
 

hiding behind a poster

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Another thing, Dotski - you say the following:

The Greens …. Well they strike me as looking for release into the wild at this stage. On these figures, they would remarkably hold on to 2 seats – one in the form of Sargant, but the other, surprisingly, in the form of John Gormley, who would slip ahead of Chris Andrews and get enough transfers from him to stay ahead of SF
Now, what that says is that in the week where FF have hit their lowest poll figure ever, the voters of DSE are gonna go from not electing the guy who's kept them in office, to electing him. That won't happen, and I think your claim that it will is based on an assumption that SF transfers will favour the Greens, as they have before. They won't. They'll even go to FG before that happens.
 

Stroke

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No FF in Galway or Meath if you're right Dotski. All my Christmas's come at once.....
 

ruamruam

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In you mayo prediction you have not taken into account Kilcoyne the independent. I think he will take a seat. Hope he doesn't but think he will
 

dotski_w_

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From your report, Dotski:

Don't think you're gonna enjoy the polls in this Sunday's papers, in that case. :lol:
Umm not sure what that's a reference to - has something happened between this poll and some polls coming out tomorrow?
 

corelli

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For those who are interested, constituency projections from the RedC/Sun poll at

December Sun « Irish Polling Report

Special mention for whoever predicts how long it takes Tommy to respond, using the phrase "Shy Tory" in something he cuts and pastes from his previous rantings.... ;)
Do SF actually have 26 candidates?

Notwithstanding, I really do think 26 seats for Sinn Fein is completely wishful thinking. You have to take into account the recognition factor. Outside of a few constituencies, there is, effectively, a zero recognition factor for SF candidates. On that basis alone I really cannot see, given I totally accept the swing to the "left", Sinn Fein getting more than 10/12 seats.

PS There is NO WAY that O'Cuiv will loose his seat in Galway West. If FF, collectively, went out and shot the Pope, the Connemara folk would still vote for Mini Dev.
 

Edo

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In you mayo prediction you have not taken into account Kilcoyne the independent. I think he will take a seat. Hope he doesn't but think he will
thats the problem with these type of projections - they take no account of internal constituency politics and personalities - particularly outside Dublin where most voters expect to meet the candidates in person and a lot will base their votes on that.

I appreciate the effort Dot puts into this and its very interesting - but it should come with that major proviso.

Roll on a national list system and Dots place will be the only place to go!:D
 

liamfoley

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Look the taoiseach question is a red herring. Ireland is a parliamentary not a presedential system. When people go to vote they vote for their local man. In Donegal that translates into McBrearty. Despite constantly repeating the line that he was Gilmore's man he still ended up getting the booby prize. It was almost as if the more people saw of him the less appealing he got and the more he appealed to them as "Eamon Gilmore's" man. When people see that in non traditional Labor territory the caliber of the leftie candidates is actually quiet poor they will revert to FF or might throw their preference towards an Independent. Labor and Gilmore are all piss and vinegar.

Now another thing about the above poll. There will be constituencies without FF TDs. In fact there will be a lot of constituencies without a FF TD. This would be another historic event.
 

Squire Allworthy

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Those figures are mesmerizing.

Can't take my eyes off them. Hopefully the trend will continue between now and the election.

Moral of tale vote anyone but FF. Even vote down to the Greens, for in say Dublin North it could be a choice between then and FF getting the last seat. Lesser of two evils principle should apply.
 

neiphin

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thank you dot
 

hiding behind a poster

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Umm not sure what that's a reference to - has something happened between this poll and some polls coming out tomorrow?
No, but there's some very interesting figures about which party the voters want the Taoiseach to come from.
 

hmmm

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The trouble with all these projections is they don't take much account of personalities. As Donegal showed, if you have poor candidates you'll fail irrespective of national polls. FF and FG have the edge here.
 

dotski_w_

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Another thing, Dotski - you say the following:
ehh ... yes?

Now, what that says is that in the week where FF have hit their lowest poll figure ever, the voters of DSE are gonna go from not electing the guy who's kept them in office, to electing him. That won't happen, and I think your claim that it will is based on an assumption that SF transfers will favour the Greens, as they have before. They won't. They'll even go to FG before that happens.
Well maybe some of them will, but I think you shoudl get back to that pint! ;)

Seriously, according to a FG poll FG poll in DSE « Irish Polling Report, FG2 is at 4%, so he'll be well below SF and GP - in other words, that's irrelevant. FF and GP are neck and neck, FF slightly ahead, but I see Indos more likely to favour GP over FF (remember, FG2 eliminated at that stage) putting Gormely ahead of FF. They have well over a quota between them, and FF transfers would put GP ahead of SF.

But if you think otherwise, that's just fine - how about you post your predictions and we can see how 'robust' they are! ;)
 

Keith-M

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All you are really doing is showing that you cannot apply a national polls to the locals. I don't knpw a single person who doesn't think Willie O'Da isn't as safe as a house in Limerick.
 


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