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dotski_w_

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The trouble with all these projections is they don't take much account of personalities. As Donegal showed, if you have poor candidates you'll fail irrespective of national polls. FF and FG have the edge here.
Well, by-elections are rarely good indicators of GEs, but McBreaty got 3.5 times the LP '07 vote, so that hardly undermines what I'm saying...
 

corelli

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Well, by-elections are rarely good indicators of GEs, but McBreaty got 3.5 times the LP '07 vote, so that hardly undermines what I'm saying...
You are still saying that Dev would loose in Galway West. There is about as much chance of that as the Pope introducing his boyfriend at the Urbi Et Orbi.
 

liamfoley

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The Kerry North constituency is mislabeled. Kerry North now gets a chunk of the wild west of Limerick. Most of the Old West Limerick constituency now becomes Limerick. This area returned the highest percentage of FF votes in living memory. To say that there would be no FF TD for Limerick is optimistic (unless you are FF of course).
 

dotski_w_

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All you are really doing is showing that you cannot apply a national polls to the locals. I don't knpw a single person who doesn't think Willie O'Da isn't as safe as a house in Limerick.
I can certainly see him pull it off, but he's well up against it. Aside from FF being well below a third of their '07 support (and the constituency being a seat down), there's an anti-incumbency mood about. Away from the politicos, being well known isn't always a good thing in that context
 

Edo

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All you are really doing is showing that you cannot apply a national polls to the locals. I don't knpw a single person who doesn't think Willie O'Da isn't as safe as a house in Limerick.
likewise Carlow/Kilkenny - SF will run 2 , 1 in Carlow town and the other in Kilkenny - I expect them to increase their votes - but they are coming from such a low base - they wont take a seat - Kathleen Funchion admitted as much on KCLR this morning - if anything - they will be serious nuisance value to Labour's rural based candidate and FF.

IF today is anything to go by - we in FG are sitting as cool as cucumbers in a fridge while Labour show distinct signs of getting rather hot under the collar about SF's jump in the polls ;)
 

Tea Party Patriot

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Do SF actually have 26 candidates?

Notwithstanding, I really do think 26 seats for Sinn Fein is completely wishful thinking. You have to take into account the recognition factor. Outside of a few constituencies, there is, effectively, a zero recognition factor for SF candidates. On that basis alone I really cannot see, given I totally accept the swing to the "left", Sinn Fein getting more than 10/12 seats.

PS There is NO WAY that O'Cuiv will loose his seat in Galway West. If FF, collectively, went out and shot the Pope, the Connemara folk would still vote for Mini Dev.
While I can appreciate the theoretical methodology that the OP uses I can't see it translating on the ground. Your point of O'Cuiv above being a perfect example; FF will get a bashing, but somewhere between 30 to 40 seats is realistic.

Take Willie O'Dea in Limerick City, only 50% (based on his transfers to Peter Power)of his vote last time round was FF, that still leaves him with 10,000 personal votes. The only way we will be able to discern just how bad things are for FF is if a constituency by constituency poll is carried out with sample ballot papers.
 

liamfoley

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I can certainly see him pull it off, but he's well up against it. Aside from FF being well below a third of their '07 support (and the constituency being a seat down), there's an anti-incumbency mood about. Away from the politicos, being well known isn't always a good thing in that context
O'Dea gets a huge personal vote. Was he not he taker of almost 2 quotas in 07?
 

Dreaded_Estate

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Do SF actually have 26 candidates?

Notwithstanding, I really do think 26 seats for Sinn Fein is completely wishful thinking. You have to take into account the recognition factor. Outside of a few constituencies, there is, effectively, a zero recognition factor for SF candidates. On that basis alone I really cannot see, given I totally accept the swing to the "left", Sinn Fein getting more than 10/12 seats.

PS There is NO WAY that O'Cuiv will loose his seat in Galway West. If FF, collectively, went out and shot the Pope, the Connemara folk would still vote for Mini Dev.

How will it work out if he has to split the vote with Frank?
 

dotski_w_

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You are still saying that Dev would loose in Galway West. There is about as much chance of that as the Pope introducing his boyfriend at the Urbi Et Orbi.
If he survives, it'll either be (a) as a result of an FF recovery from this vote (less than a third of '07), or (b) a remarkable stemming of the national tide.

As it happens, I think he's a 50/50 chance if the election is in March, and more like 40/60 if it's February. Don't forget, there's a budget yet to come...
 

Tea Party Patriot

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O'Dea gets a huge personal vote. Was he not he taker of almost 2 quotas in 07?
See my previous post over 10,000 of his votes last time round were personal and not FF votes based on transfers.
 

Dreaded_Estate

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If he survives, it'll either be (a) as a result of an FF recovery from this vote (less than a third of '07), or (b) a remarkable stemming of the national tide.

As it happens, I think he's a 50/50 chance if the election is in March, and more like 40/60 if it's February. Don't forget, there's a budget yet to come...

And those January pay packets will be very raw when the election is called.
 

corelli

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How will it work out if he has to split the vote with Frank?
Internal FF poll is O'Cuiv with 16% first preference. Down about 3. Fahey down about the same percentage points to under 10. 8% or so I think. FF will loose Fahey. He, privately and somewhat publicly, has admitted that for the last 6 months or so.

Galway W will be 2 FG, 1 FF, 1 Labour and either Independent Connolly or Geralish.
 

wombat

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Local question - do you really see the people of DL voting for 48% tax rate + whatever RBB is having - 2 Labour + 1 PBP in one of the wealthiest constituencies in the country. P.S., the Sion Hill vote will be bigger than the Trinity one;)
 

hiding behind a poster

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If he survives, it'll either be (a) as a result of an FF recovery from this vote (less than a third of '07), or (b) a remarkable stemming of the national tide.

As it happens, I think he's a 50/50 chance if the election is in March, and more like 40/60 if it's February. Don't forget, there's a budget yet to come...
I think the Budget is already "priced in", as the markets say, to people's thinking.
 

corelli

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