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tullahogue

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Aug 25, 2010
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285
All you are really doing is showing that you cannot apply a national polls to the locals. I don't knpw a single person who doesn't think Willie O'Da isn't as safe as a house in Limerick.
What safe house is that? Is it the people in your house?
 

dotski_w_

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I think the Budget is already "priced in", as the markets say, to people's thinking.
perhaps for most ppl, but not for everyone. there's a few who think it'll all affect someone else until they see the paypacket. Or the wife starts looking for more housekeeping now the child benefit has been reduced.

Very few govts went up in the polls after an unpopular budget....
 

flavirostris

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I cannot see O'Cuiv, Dempsey and O'Dea losing their seats as you have it here. Their personal votes are just too big
 

dotski_w_

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Local question - do you really see the people of DL voting for 48% tax rate + whatever RBB is having - 2 Labour + 1 PBP in one of the wealthiest constituencies in the country. P.S., the Sion Hill vote will be bigger than the Trinity one;)
I think most polls actually show the highest support for tax increases among the highest earners, do they not?

Also D/L is more diverse than you think....
 

dotski_w_

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Red_93

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26 seats for SF? Surely that isn't realistic even if I would like it to be true.
It certainly doesn't fit in with your slow release strategy. It looks closer to the here today gone tomorrow politics of FG. However, I do think the 2005 IRA statement is beginning to register in voters minds. You must admit though that it is encouraging for you to see respected posters like Dotski predicting SF gains though...
 

Tea Party Patriot

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Oct 31, 2010
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11,468
FF are at less than a third of their 2007 vote now, so I'm not sure what that point is supposed to make - particualrly when it's gone from 5 seats to 4.
The point is that O'Dea got 20,000 votes and only about half of them were transferable to FF, therefore it must show that 10,000 of these were not FF votes but personal ones. The personal on the ground factor will still have a big part to play in the election.
 

hiding behind a poster

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It certainly doesn't fit in with your slow release strategy. It looks closer to the here today gone tomorrow politics of FG. However, I do think the 2005 IRA statement is beginning to register in voters minds. You must admit though that it is encouraging for you to see respected posters like Dotski predicting SF gains though...
Ah, don't do that..... :lol:
 

factual

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perhaps for most ppl, but not for everyone. there's a few who think it'll all affect someone else until they see the paypacket. Or the wife starts looking for more housekeeping now the child benefit has been reduced.

Very few govts went up in the polls after an unpopular budget....
Though if it shows a government has the balls to take on and deal with a problem that needs desling with?
 

liamfoley

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Messages
3,267
FF are at less than a third of their 2007 vote now, so I'm not sure what that point is supposed to make - particualrly when it's gone from 5 seats to 4.
The city is O'Dea's heartland. A third of 2.3 is .75. Worst possible scenario still puts him in the running for a seat and only if his personal vote collapses. If you conduct a poll in Limerick City don't ask people if they would vote for FF, ask would you vote for O'Dea. Few things would give me more pleasure than seeing O'Dea give a concession speech but it ain't gonna happen.
 

dotski_w_

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The point is that O'Dea got 20,000 votes and only about half of them were transferable to FF, therefore it must show that 10,000 of these were not FF votes but personal ones. The personal on the ground factor will still have a big part to play in the election.
Well, closer to 60-65%. A similar amount of FF votes in '07 were personal votes so if they are down by that nationally, it's hard to se why "his" 'personal' votes will be so different. In many cases, those will be the first votes to go
 

Truth1

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Joined
Sep 25, 2010
Messages
88
All you are really doing is showing that you cannot apply a national polls to the locals. I don't knpw a single person who doesn't think Willie O'Da isn't as safe as a house in Limerick.
Is Willie going to run? - he has a minister's pension which cannot be paid while he is a deputy in the next Dail, will never see ministerial office again, is now a SINDO pundit, has qualifictions to beat the band even tho' one wonders whether he could do a honest day's work and is despised at a national level for his propaganda tricks and truth economies in Court. His contribution in damages to Quinlivan has helped Sinn Fein immensely. Have a look at the following:

Limerick Blogger Forum / Maurice Quinlivan & Sinn Fein open office with Willie O'Dea's money

Please tell me that he will go!
 

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