Referendum on Backstop could overcome DUP resistance given that NI voted Remain?

Patslatt1

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 18, 2009
Messages
4,273
Sovereign states facing modest political opposition on trade realise that they have to yield some sovereign contol over trade to participate in trading markets. By comparison,the DUP which faces massive political opposition to its rejection of checks on trade across the Irish Sea that would make the Backstop feasible looks intransigent. It seems to believe that the border checks threaten its position in the Union.

But it overlooks the opportunity that trade with mainland Britain would become bigger than ever,possibly in a prolonged boom, as businesses expolited the advantages of being in both the EU single market and the mainland Britain market. Many companies on the mainland could set up operations in Northern Ireland to trade with the EU while staying in the UK economic system, as opposed to setting up on the continent or the Republic of Ireland. The main inconveniences would be checks on some or all goods crossing the NI and Britain borders and proofs that imported components of final goods did not exceed minimal level permitted.

Since a majority in Northern Ireland voted Remain, probably they would vote for checks to trade on the Irish Sea to facilitate the Backstop. Most political parties and the business community would support this.
 
Last edited:


neiphin

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2009
Messages
5,547
Sovereign states facing modest political opposition on trade realise that they have to yield some sovereign contol over trade to participate in trading markets.
1) By comparison,the DUP which faces massive political opposition to its rejection of checks on trade across the Irish Sea that would make the Backstop feasible looks intransigent. It seems to believe that the border checks threaten its position in the Union.

But it overlooks the opportunity that trade with mainland Britain would become bigger than ever,possibly in a prolonged boom, as businesses expolited the advantages of being in both the EU single market and the mainland Britain market. Many companies on the mainland could set up operations in Northern Ireland to trade with the EU while staying in the UK economic system, as opposed to setting up on the continent or the Republic of Ireland. The main inconveniences would be checks on some or all goods crossing the NI and Britain borders and proofs that imported components of final goods did not exceed minimal level permitted.

2)Since a majority in Northern Ireland voted Remain, probably they would vote for checks to trade on the Irish Sea to facilitate the Backstop. Most political parties and the business community would support this.
1) not among their core
2) they will argue that the uk as a whole voted out (joined as one country, leave as one country)
 

Ireniall

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 7, 2011
Messages
8,501
Sovereign states facing modest political opposition on trade realise that they have to yield some sovereign contol over trade to participate in trading markets. By comparison,the DUP which faces massive political opposition to its rejection of checks on trade across the Irish Sea that would make the Backstop feasible looks intransigent. It seems to believe that the border checks threaten its position in the Union.

But it overlooks the opportunity that trade with mainland Britain would become bigger than ever,possibly in a prolonged boom, as businesses expolited the advantages of being in both the EU single market and the mainland Britain market. Many companies on the mainland could set up operations in Northern Ireland to trade with the EU while staying in the UK economic system, as opposed to setting up on the continent or the Republic of Ireland. The main inconveniences would be checks on some or all goods crossing the NI and Britain borders and proofs that imported components of final goods did not exceed minimal level permitted.

Since a majority in Northern Ireland voted Remain, probably they would vote for checks to trade on the Irish Sea to facilitate the Backstop. Most political parties and the business community would support this.
That Unionist leaders in the DUP along with David Trimble with his dalliance with the ERG, saw fit to campaign for Brexit in the circumstances in which we all find ourselves on this island is such a mistake, and surely such an obvious mistake, that it requires some sort of deep psychological analysis to understand. I cannot even begin to understand why some one like Trimble would have supported Brexit. I do not believe that he would have undermined the GFA deliberately and I don't believe that he is the sort of person who would take pleasure from a harder border. I think he simply didn't understand the implications of what he was promoting. I mean what chance did some of the yokels in the DUP have if the likes of Trimble was that far off.

So the complete pack of eejits promote Brexit to their own people and facilitate its promotion in GB and surprise of the century , manage to help to get it over the line. Cue a kind of initially distant but increasingly insistent Nationalist indignation which was not actually angry but seems to have been all the more profound for that. Essentially Catholics, who will decide the future of NI, have changed their minds about it in a manner which suggests that it might be permanent. Soon after this Tommie Gorman comes on the news to explain to us southies, whose jaws still haven't fully retracted into the correct position with what has happened, that his contacts in the DUP have said that they are as shocked as every one else that Brexit passed and that they were only protecting their flanks from some of the loonie Unionist fringe groups by waving the flag over Brexit. Now this is pretty pathetic but at least is rational and re assuring even.

But the whole thing was still too much of a heady mix for Unionist leaders. The whooping over winning the referendum had hardly subsided when Theresa May gifted them the balance of power and it seemed that they could do no wrong. An invitation from Enda Kenny to construct an all-Ireland approach to the Brexit process was sniffily dismissed by Arlene early on and with Stormont on ice the DUP focus was now exclusively on Westminster. The Brexit referendum result had brought an immediate hardening of attitude in the Irish government and for the first time in many years Unionist sensitivities around a united Ireland were ignored and Kenny negotiated an immediate membership of the EU for NI in the event of unity. With all of this in the background it is perhaps less surprising that the DUP forgot about Ireland north or south , decided it liked this Brexit lark and threw its lot in with the ERG perhaps not fully realising the level of lunatic fringe they were dealing with there.

Everything seemed so great for such a long time as all of this unfolded . The British were laying down red lines to bate the band. Boris was telling the EU to go whistle and Farage was telling them that none of them ever had a proper job. A self-congratulatory frenzy took off in the UK They stood alone again . Arlene talked about global Britain. There were trade deals, German car makers, blue passports and much else besides. No Brexiteer seemed to notice though that the UK didn't simply want to leave the club. It wanted to keep a key to the door so that it could continue to go in and sell its sandwiches there at lunchtime. It came as such a shock to them that they had to consult Europeans in order to get permission for this. Very slowly all sorts of pennies started to drop and Brexit and Brexiteers, outside of the UK at any rate , began too look foolish and incompetent on a grand scale.

Of course for the DUP this white knuckle ride was bound to lead them back home eventually and whatever they thought they might be able to show for what they had been up to at Westminster while all of this was happening had turned out to be a joke. Instead of a shiny new global Brexit all they had was a shambles which seriously threatened the livelihood of many in NI. To make matters worse for them a solid majority did not share their concern over their blood red lines which had been perfectly secure in the EU. The DUP had foolishly ensnared a wild stallion and instead of turning it loose when it kicked off they decided to climb on its back instead and they have not been able to dismount with any dignity since. I must say it's been a comical sight but down they are coming one way or another as I can see Boris already cutting one of their stirrups. This might be actually better for them than the alternative and they might as well let some one else decide their future for them given the absurd position that they've put themselves in on their own.
 

Mickeymac

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 30, 2010
Messages
40,584
To avoid a potential revival of protestant paramilitaries.


Fatter brown envelopes from Boris might be the answer for Boris the clown to his friends...….if he is serious about a deal acceptable to the EU.
 

Glaucon

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 13, 2012
Messages
8,486
The proposition is to place the land border at the sea. Northern Ireland will remain part of the UK Customs Union, not the EU one. As such, it's not popular with NI businesses but doesn't break the DUP's red lines.
 

Catahualpa

Well-known member
Joined
May 12, 2019
Messages
1,400
Website
irelandinhistory.blogspot.com
The DUP know that the game is up - even if the Commons rejected the latest deal there will be a GE directly after it.

The only way the DUP would retain any influence is if there was a hung parliament and the Tories do not have a majority in the House

- and the Libs & Labour could not form an alternative Government .

That is not impossible but a not very likely outcome.

Their best tactic is to negotiate from strength and accept a deal and wring some concessions from Boris eg more investment in the North

Because it will be many a year if ever that they will hold the balance of Power in the Halls of Westminster again ....
 

Emily Davison

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 9, 2013
Messages
31,213
Excellent post Ireniall. Many seem happy with the latest movement from Boris with Leo last week. I disagree because nobody can rely on anything Boris says and it does not seem likely he can get a deal thru parliament.

But he will drop that stirrup if necessary, which must be pretty shocking for those who support the DUP.
 
Last edited:

McSlaggart

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 29, 2010
Messages
18,316
To avoid a potential revival of protestant paramilitaries.

The only way to avoid a revival of prodestant paramilitaries is to allow them to think that their was a possibility of changing the terms that unionism has already agreed.
 

Ireniall

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 7, 2011
Messages
8,501
Excellent post Ireniall. Many seem happy with the latest movement from Boris with Leo last week. I disagree because nobody can rely on anything Boris says and it dies not seem likely he can get a deal thru parliament.

But he will drop that stirrup if necessary, which must be pretty shocking for those who support the DUP.
Thanks very much Emily. Another poster on the Brexit thread pointed out that the press over in England are already questioning the situation where a small appendage, which one paper suggested would likely not be in the UK at all within ten years, is preventing the UK from having the Brexit that they want. To give him his due Newton Emerson has been saying this for a long time now as well. Smart Unionists would never want to put themselves in this situation where there was a choice between NI and something that the British people wanted.. I think it is in Africa that they have a saying that 'you should never come between a water buffalo and the water'.

Having found themselves getting burned after playing with fire by supporting Brexit in the referendum they assumed would be lost the only chance they had of avoiding the consequences was to push might and mane for a soft Brexit where the whole UK stayed in the Customs Union and the Single Market. But instead they played footsie with the ERG and helped to push the Brexit consensus into a hard place. Now they must pay. With regard to Boris I am hoping that rather than having to trust him to do as he promises that we can trust him to do what is in his own interest and that this coincides with what we want. It is not that he is awash with choices so that he might be prevailed upon to go somewhere close to where we want him to. I feel foolish even writing this down but fingers crossed
 


New Threads

Most Replies

Top