Replacing Micheal Martin

statsman

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The opening up of an eight-point gap between FG and FF in the latest opinion poll may just be a blip or it may be something more, but it does serve as a timely reminder of the apparent failure of FF's confidence and supply arrangement with the current government. Clearly, this was designed to allow FF time to rebuild under Deputy Martin's leadership so that they would be best placed tl lead a majority coalition government after the next GE in 2018/19.

The flatness of post GE 2016 opinion polls are a measure of the failure of this approach, and now the party are faced with the prospect of FG achieving what they have not. It's hard to imagine that FF will be able to face the prospect of a third successive term in opposition quietly, so Martin's position has to be in some doubt. He has the opportunity today at the pre-Dail 'think in' in Longford to convince his parliamentary party colleagues of his vision, but will he still be in position this time next year? And if not, who will replace him?

Barry Cowen is on the airwaves so often that you'd have to think he fancies his chances. Dev Og appears to have disappeared, Willie O'Dea is Willie O'Dea and Micheál McGrath is, well, what? It's an uninspiring field, really, and that's probably Martin's best hope of clinging on. Still, there are a couple of polls in the offing, and if the 'Varadkar bounce' is also reflected in them, it may well be goodnight Vienna.
 
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mr. jings

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Barry Cowen is on the airwaves so often that you'd have to think he fancies his chances. Dev Og appears to have disappeared, Willie O'Dea is Willie O'Dea and Michael McGrath is, well, what?'
The enemies of my enemy are too crap to be the enemy of my enemy.

Seriously though, FF would seem to be in a bit of a bind, stuck with tainted old faces, and unimpressive young cubs. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of unprincipled lightweights.
 

hammer

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We need Mehole to stay there as long as possible to remind people that its same old Fianna FAIL.

But saying all that if he is to be replaced please please please replace him with BIFFFFFO Nua.
 

Toland

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We need Mehole to stay there as long as possible to remind people that its same old Fianna FAIL.

But saying all that if he is to be replaced please please please replace him with BIFFFFFO Nua.
I disagree. He's the best asset they have. If they got rid of him, who would they replace him with?

I'd love to see the ructions.
 

Zapped(CAPITALISMROTS)

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Wee Willie is on the S.O.R show at the moment starting the fightback!!:shock2:
 

statsman

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The enemies of my enemy are too crap to be the enemy of my enemy.

Seriously though, FF would seem to be in a bit of a bind, stuck with tainted old faces, and unimpressive young cubs. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of unprincipled lightweights.
They need to do something soon or they're doomed to be the new FG; mostly in opposition with the occasional spell in government when the actual FG mess up completely.
 

statsman

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I disagree. He's the best asset they have. If they got rid of him, who would they replace him with?

I'd love to see the ructions.
The problem they have is that, bad as he is, tainted by the past as he is, he may well be their best asset. What a depressing thought, if you happen to be a Fianna Failer.
 

Casablanca

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I think MM is, like Enda Kenny in the 2007-2011 period, blessed by the quality of his enemies. There really is no alternative that is viable. I've said before that even though FF have been trouble sine 2011, they had, up to recently, one great thing going for them: Enda!.

I reckon Enda always suppressed the FG vote by about 3-5%. Some voters never rated or warmed to him. Varadkar is a different animal. A good media performer and a more human profile means FF are up against a more challenging competitor. MM needs to adapt to compete, but for the moment he's safe.
 

statsman

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I think MM is, like Enda Kenny in the 2007-2011 period, blessed by the quality of his enemies. There really is no alternative that is viable. I've said before that even though FF have been trouble sine 2011, they had, up to recently, one great thing going for them: Enda!.

I reckon Enda always suppressed the FG vote by about 3-5%. Some voters never rated or warmed to him. Varadkar is a different animal. A good media performer and a more human profile means FF are up against a more challenging competitor.
I disagree with Vlad and everything he stands for, but I heard him on the radio with Marty Morrissey after the All Ireland yesterday and it would appear that he can speak fluently about almost anything, if his knowledge of Castleknock GAA matters is anything to go by. It's a scary prospect.
 

brughahaha

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They need to do something soon or they're doomed to be the new FG; mostly in opposition with the occasional spell in government when the actual FG mess up completely.
Will I file that with your numerous predictions of Jeremy Corbyns demise ?
 

Zapped(CAPITALISMROTS)

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How many potholes has he promised to fill?
Do not be so cynical statesman. Willie has trod the pavements of Limerick every day for over thirty five years setting a good example to everyone, to not use their cars. Of course, he could be aware that getting regular photos of him pointing guns from the wound down windows of passenger seats is not a good look....:shock: lol
 

statsman

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There must be a way of combining the filling of potholes with the burying of coffins, just to make Willie's life a lot easier.
This being Limerick, it's already been done. ;)
 

Golden Phoenix

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We need Mehole to stay there as long as possible to remind people that its same old Fianna FAIL.

But saying all that if he is to be replaced please please please replace him with BIFFFFFO Nua.
Brilliant! My sentiment exactly!
 

Fr Peter McWhinger

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The opening up of an eight-point gap between FG and FF in the latest opinion poll may just be a blip or it may be something more, but it does serve as a timely reminder of the apparent failure of FF's confidence and supply arrangement with the current government. Clearly, this was designed to allow FF time to rebuild under Deputy Martin's leadership so that they would be best placed tl lead a majority coalition government after the next GE in 2018/19.

The flatness of post GE 2016 opinion polls are a measure of the failure of this approach, and now the party are faced with the prospect of FG achieving what they have not. It's hard to imagine that FF will be able to face the prospect of a third successive term in opposition quietly, so Martin's position has to be in some doubt. He has the opportunity today at the pre-Dail 'think in' in Longford to convince his parliamentary party colleagues of his vision, but will he still be in position this time next year? And if not, who will replace him?

Barry Cowen is on the airwaves so often that you'd have to think he fancies his chances. Dev Og appears to have disappeared, Willie O'Dea is Willie O'Dea and Michael McGrath is, well, what? It's an uninspiring field, really, and that's probably Martin's best hope of clinging on. Still, there are a couple of polls in the offing, and if the 'Varadkar bounce' is also reflected in them, it may well be goodnight Vienna.
Jim O'Callaghan appears the most likely replacement.
 

Plebian

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No replacement has been groomed in the public eye. Unlike in FG where you had the two pretenders to the throne, both with their own established fan clubs.

On that basis FF will be sticking with MM until after the GE at the earliest.

I wouldn't agree that FF have been flat in the post GE 2016 polls. They made significant advances to a point where they were credibly at 30% and the previous to yesterday's B&A poll had them at 29%.

It's in recent enough polling that a lack of progress for FF has threatened. The departure of the unpopular with voters Enda Kenny has removed a key figure that was driving the floating FF/FG leaning voter towards FF.

In polling, young Leo is at least temporarily a breath of fresh air and youth and vigour sell well in polling. It's also very noticeable that Leo has toned down the Tory boy act in order to appeal to a greater cross section of voters and that he's been in election mode since he took over from Kenny.

A change in FF leader couldn't neuter Leo because FF have no one with showbiz pzaaz to replace MM who has done a good job of rebuilding FF.
 

Casablanca

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I disagree with Vlad and everything he stands for, but I heard him on the radio with Marty Morrissey after the All Ireland yesterday and it would appear that he can speak fluently about almost anything, if his knowledge of Castleknock GAA matters is anything to go by. It's a scary prospect.
In the Irish context, all our parties, bar the far left/ultra populists, occupy the middle ground. Varadkar is a more dangerous type who seems to have beliefs. But he'll quickly drop them in the pursuit of power, and has the ability and PR nous to become a Bertie-like character who is for and agin everything at the same time. As I said, a most dangerous type. He's a far better operator the Enda and a frightening one for FF. It's no coincidence that the FF & SF supporters here tried to do a hatchet job on him and would have much preferred Coveney to win the FG battle.
 

statsman

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In the Irish context, all our parties, bar the far left/ultra populists, occupy the middle ground. Varadkar is a more dangerous type who seems to have beliefs. But he'll quickly drop them in the pursuit of power, and has the ability and PR nous to become a Bertie-like character who is for and agin everything at the same time. As I said, a most dangerous type. He's a far better operator the Enda and a frightening one for FF. It's no coincidence that the FF & SF supporters here tried to do a hatchet job on him and would have much preferred Coveney to win the FG battle.
You're probably right. I think if the polls keep going in this new direction, SF will find ways to soften their line somewhat.
 


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