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Republicans 2016 who will be the GOP nominee ?


cyberianpan

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Now that Chris Christie has had gastric band surgery he must be the front runner ?

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/08/nyregion/chris-christie-secretly-had-weight-loss-surgery.html?_r=0


edit
The presumptive Democrat nominee is Hillary Clinton but how will the GOP work out?

Liz Mair a political aide to Scott Walker had to leave his campaign after it emerged she wasn't in favour of Iowa's position as the first to vote. She argued Iowa was much more religiously conservative than average and thus skewed the race.

Jeb Bush is another likely candidate and he stoked some ire by asking any firms/consultants he retained to be exclusively available to him. Bush is the Establishment favourite but him running against Clinton would be very odd. Chris Christie may run looking for 'Establishment' votes but he is damaged already imo

Ted Cruz will be first to declare and is the likely Tea Party favourite : Ted Cruz to announce presidential bid Monday - Houston Chronicle ...though he will have to battle Rand Paul for that segment

Rubio, Trump and Jindal are all possible candidates too

Best overview is here: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/us/politics/2016-presidential-candidates.html

It will, as ever, be a challenge to:
1) Win the campaign
2) Not tack too hard to the right
3) Not to get damaged

cYp
 
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PlanetBertie

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As long as he is pro-gun, anti abortion, no gay marriage, pro war, it don't matter if Christie eats all the apple pie and his mum he will be the republican candidate.
 

livingstone

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Now that Chris Christie has had gastric band surgery he must be the front runner ?

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/08/nyregion/chris-christie-secretly-had-weight-loss-surgery.html?_r=0

cYp
He would be their most formidable candidate, but his actions at the end of the last campaign in praising Obama's handling of Sandy has alienated a lot of the GOP base, and he's trailing Rubio in most polls.

That said, it's not fatal for him. I think it really is between him and Rubio.

Jeb Bush is also trying to position himself, but is falling a bit flat. Ted Cruz and Rand Paul will be also rans.

There may be some pressure for a female candidate - so Susana Martinez, Nikki Haley or Kelly Ayotte may make a stab for it, but neither will have what it takes to come through in 2016. I think Martinez and Ayotte are both ones to watch for the future, both from swing states. Martinez in particular has quite an impressive story to tell.
 

Ryan Tubbs

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He would be their most formidable candidate, but his actions at the end of the last campaign in praising Obama's handling of Sandy has alienated a lot of the GOP base, and he's trailing Rubio in most polls.
Christie.....Rubio.......Ryan......

The GOP are facing annihilation in 2016.
 

Telemachus

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It doesnt matter, the democrats have the next election stitched up with their seditious immigrant amnesty which the idiot repub-rinos are after buying into.

But I hope its Jeb Bush - I really hate them.
 

JamieD

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I have a sneaking suspicion the GOP candidate in 2016 will be someone relatively unknown right now. One thing we should know for sure by now, polls mean absolutely NOTHING until perhaps the very last days before an election. Look at all the people who led Romney in the polls before he became the nominee, from Donald Trump, to Herman Cain, to Rick Perry, to Newt Gingrich and so on. Polls mean nothing.

If the GOP 2016 candidate is any of the line-up for 2012, they've already lost. Someone new won't exactly work either, they need new ideas, they've been banging the same drums for too long. You already know EXACTLY what you will hear from a Republican debate before it starts. Pandering. War good, Jesus good. TAX SO BAD!! Abortion MURDER!!!!!!! Evolution WRONG, Contraception SLUT!!, Gay Marriage YUCK..

The most important of all.... "The second amendment is the absolute test of freedom for any American, if you can't own a gun or acquire one under any conditions then you live in tyranny and there is no middle ground."

Basically, they need new blood and new ideas BADLY. And hey, they went for Reagan, the hollywood star divorcee, don't write them off.
 

Kevin Doyle

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It doesnt matter, the democrats have the next election stitched up with their seditious immigrant amnesty which the idiot repub-rinos are after buying into.

But I hope its Jeb Bush - I really hate them.
Is there anyone you don't hate?
 

freewillie

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Clinton vs Ryan.

Grandma lookalike versus the hot uncle.

Wait till the drag up Hillarys health concerns and then she will get all flustered like the Simsons Garbage Collector episode.

Simpson versus Roy Patterson. Bono might even be called in by Hillary or even Jim Corr
 

Socratus O' Pericles

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I have a sneaking suspicion the GOP candidate in 2016 will be someone relatively unknown right now. One thing we should know for sure by now, polls mean absolutely NOTHING until perhaps the very last days before an election. Look at all the people who led Romney in the polls before he became the nominee, from Donald Trump, to Herman Cain, to Rick Perry, to Newt Gingrich and so on. Polls mean nothing.

If the GOP 2016 candidate is any of the line-up for 2012, they've already lost. Someone new won't exactly work either, they need new ideas, they've been banging the same drums for too long. You already know EXACTLY what you will hear from a Republican debate before it starts. Pandering. War good, Jesus good. TAX SO BAD!! Abortion MURDER!!!!!!! Evolution WRONG, Contraception SLUT!!, Gay Marriage YUCK..

The most important of all.... "The second amendment is the absolute test of freedom for any American, if you can't own a gun or acquire one under any conditions then you live in tyranny and there is no middle ground."

Basically, they need new blood and new ideas BADLY. And hey, they went for Reagan, the hollywood star divorcee, don't write them off.
Could be Rob Portman less of a loon than most of them:
Rob Portman - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Rubio is mild favourite at the mo'

US Presidential Election 2016 Republican Candidate Betting Odds | Politics and Election Betting | Oddschecker
 

Amnesiac

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I don't agree.

If Clinton doesn't run, Christie would quite probably beat Biden.
Christie would beat Biden handily. Christie is a great candidate, but plenty of GOP campaigners will be bitter over his behaviour near the end of the Romney campaign. I believe he would have beaten Obama had he ran in 2012.
 

Dame_Enda

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Unlike the Dems the person who enters the primary as favourite almost always gets the nomination. It's far too early to know who that will be in 2015 though. The early betting is either Rubio, (Rand) Paul or Jeb Bush. Ryan may be damaged goods after being associated with a losing ticket, and his associations with a polarising budget. But Nixon went on to win in 1968 after failing in 1960 so maybe that was just electoral growing pains.

One emerging theme from CPAC this year has been a growing generation divide in the GOP on gay marriage. I think the younger libertarian wing of the party may back Paul, who while opposed to gay marriage also wants it left to the states. Historically South Carolina always chose the winner since 1980 but 2012 broke that streak. Marco Rubio has to be a favourite in the Florida primary. But as part of the Gang of Eight he may not be trusted on immigration - a big deal in the primaries (remember Romney calling for "self-deportation")?

Ted Cruz is also emerging as a possible dark horse candidate. As a Cuban-American perhaps he can make the GOP less toxic to Hispanics. Bush won 44% of the Hispanic vote. Also the GOP performs better with Texan Hispanics than nationally. Much will depend on whether the GOP caves in on immigration. Otherwise they will remain aloof to the party. Like Paul he is thought to favour a more isolationist foreign policy. That raises the likelihood that the 2016 primary will be partly fought on the question of internationalism/neoconservatism vs isolationism.
 
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H.R. Haldeman

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I have a sneaking suspicion the GOP candidate in 2016 will be someone relatively unknown right now.


Actually, I think that's what'll happen with the Democrats rather than the Republicans.

Hillary will be 69 in 2016. Pulling on her boots in her Upper West Side apartment for the snows of New Hampshire and Michigan at 67? 2 years of that insanity? I'm not at all sure, especially considering how exhausted she was at the end of her stint at State.

Biden is 70 now. I don't honestly think we'll see a President elected at 74 again in our lifetimes. Maybe when we all live to be 100, but that's a while off yet and too far away for Joe.

That leaves the uninspiring likes of Cuomo, Patrick, Warren or Warner. Meh. Which makes me think it might be someone lower profile than them.

For the GOP, events will shake out one of Christie, Rubio or Bush. All of them are smarter and more moderate than W. And indeed than any of the lunatics who ran in the 2008 or 2012 GOP primaries, Hunstman aside.

I think Ryan is finished for the big job. He's been stunningly unimpressive in every way since coming to national prominence. I don't think he can erase that terrible first impression.
 

Ryan Tubbs

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Oh no she doesn't. There's a huge anti-Clinton feeling in many key states and the ghost of Benghazi will come back to haunt her.
She is the most popular public figure in the US. In polling terms, she is one of the most popular US public figures ever.

If she runs, she will win. End of story.

And if the GOP run any ticket which has Christie, Rubio, or Ryan on it, I hope they are annihilated. (I say this as an ardent GOP supporter for the last 2 elections)
 

Thac0man

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Now that Chris Christie has had gastric band surgery he must be the front runner ?

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/08/nyregion/chris-christie-secretly-had-weight-loss-surgery.html?_r=0

cYp
At this early stage its impossible to say who will be in the running. Last time out the GOP field of candidates turned up a few surprises, and some, like Rick Perry, looked like much stronger runners than Mitt Romney, who despite my prodictions, actually won the nomination.
 

Dame_Enda

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Haldeman have you forgotten Reagan was 69-70 when he took office?
 
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