Retail Blood Bath in New Year


Eventualities

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Yeah I mean there will always be someone able to make a subsistence living on meeting the needs of that subsection of a market. But it's just that, subsistence living.
If you do what you love, you'll never work a day in your life.

Not that I see the lads subsisting any more or less than other startup business folk.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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There's no market for video games or new music stores any more. People download their games. People listen to Spotify. Those who want to buy physical copies (A dwindling number) will order most of them online for cheaper.

They're dead store concepts. There's no point trying to save a shop that's selling things nobody wants. The industry's evolved past them.

More concerning is the likes of Debenhams etc who just seem doomed.
Yep. Just talking with someone yesterday about Debenhams in particular. Heavy discounting going on even in the pre-Christmas week.

Few months ago I was in a large Debenhams and noticed a distinct shrinking of the number of product lines available. Was in the same shop this morning out of curiosity and from what I saw the footfall 7 days out from Christmas day ain't nearly enough. And they are the anchor tenants in this particular shopping centre.

If what I saw is replicated across other Debenham shops in the UK I'd be amazed if they are not in the hands of the vultures end of January, start of Feb.

You can almost hear the brand groaning.
 

Shpake

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Yep. Just talking with someone yesterday about Debenhams in particular. Heavy discounting going on even in the pre-Christmas week.

Few months ago I was in a large Debenhams and noticed a distinct shrinking of the number of product lines available. Was in the same shop this morning out of curiosity and from what I saw the footfall 7 days out from Christmas day ain't nearly enough. And they are the anchor tenants in this particular shopping centre.

If what I saw is replicated across other Debenham shops in the UK I'd be amazed if they are not in the hands of the vultures end of January, start of Feb.

You can almost hear the brand groaning.

My story is somewhat different. About one year or more before this Debenhams share-price debacle I had just been doing the rounds of Aldi, Lidl etc looking for a bagain... and my stroll took me to the city centre where out of curiousity I visited Dunnes, M&S and then Debenhams. Well by Gor! Dunnes was not that pricey, but M&S in comparison !!! I nearly collapsed and then Debenhams pretty much topped the bill. I kind of became aware that there was some other species inhabiting the city who shelled out more for a pair of socks than the amount that I would pay for a gansey.
It comes as no surprise that the consumer market has caught on. But there must be something deeper afoot. It's not all that difficult to lower prices -- although I'm sure it hurts. Maybe so many vested interests. Is internet shopping responsible for their share price dropping 85% in one year? Must be more than just that.
 

Clanrickard

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Yeah I mean there will always be someone able to make a subsistence living on meeting the needs of that subsection of a market. But it's just that, subsistence living.
In the DIY game it is the lads working on their own, with the other half or one employee that are making money. They'll never drive a Ferrari but they do well. It is the big boxes that are going to get it in the neck.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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I just think we may be nearing a tipping point for the business model of a retailer being anchor tenant in shopping centres which in turn is supposed to attract other brands into the shopping centre.

I can see that ASOS is doing badly and they say they are 80% internet sales but if they are struggling what the situation must be at the traditionals will be fairly shocking.

I think consumers are shifting substantially to internet shopping-definitely in the retail clothing sector. Ironically enough who wants to struggle through crowds in an overheated shop to find that the shop has every size but yours? Fairly few- and the crowds are disappearing from the shops but the internet model is really replacing the expensive high-rental outlet in my opinion.

I'm guessing that Debenhams will be in upward-only leases up and down the country and you can only discount so far on products being sold before that lease set-up nationwide starts to look like the financial albatross it probably is.

Margins are slim enough in the clothing sector even with razor thin logistics and sweat-shops in Asia doing the production. Those switching to internet purchasing are probably the last straw as the margins are no longer sustainable.
 

silverharp

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My story is somewhat different. About one year or more before this Debenhams share-price debacle I had just been doing the rounds of Aldi, Lidl etc looking for a bagain... and my stroll took me to the city centre where out of curiousity I visited Dunnes, M&S and then Debenhams. Well by Gor! Dunnes was not that pricey, but M&S in comparison !!! I nearly collapsed and then Debenhams pretty much topped the bill. I kind of became aware that there was some other species inhabiting the city who shelled out more for a pair of socks than the amount that I would pay for a gansey.
It comes as no surprise that the consumer market has caught on. But there must be something deeper afoot. It's not all that difficult to lower prices -- although I'm sure it hurts. Maybe so many vested interests. Is internet shopping responsible for their share price dropping 85% in one year? Must be more than just that.
Debenhams is a weird store , buy some big ticket items and they seem to be ok , yet for smaller items they try to sell no brand items for 3 or 4 times the price compared to other places.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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Just thinking that the other big killer may be the buying cycle at the major retailers. Debenhams, M&S and so on would be bulk ordering their Spring ranges in September or October of this year and their summer range probably no later than January/Feb.

The logistics in Asia now are so fast that smaller operators and those selling lines direct to the public via internet websites probably have a much shorter lead-time so they can be 'on' fashion whereas a buying mistake at the big clothing stores in Europe as regards fashion would sit around their necks 'till Autumn.

Maybe not just the consumer switch- but the buying cycle is probably being undercut by the internet retailers as well.
 

Eventualities

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Debenhams is a weird store , buy some big ticket items and they seem to be ok , yet for smaller items they try to sell no brand items for 3 or 4 times the price compared to other places.
Yep. Went in lately to look at retro-gaming tat for Xmas presents. €42 for a Sega-branded smartphone controller. Do ye be well, like
 

robut

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IN THE UK:

The UK’s last Christmas shopping season before Brexit has been a major bummer

This year has been brutal on British retailers. But the hope, at least, was that the holiday shopping season would turn things around and give them some cause for cheer.

It hasn’t.

The current trading conditions are unprecedented in our experience and are significantly worse even than during the recession of 2008-09,” Helen Connolly, CEO of Bonmarché, said last week as the company cut its profit forecast.
Will we see the same here I wonder??
 

Sync

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robut

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Retailers blame Met Eireann weather warnings for drop in footfall

Retailers have blamed Met Eireann weather warnings for a drop in footfall.

Industry representative group Retail Excellence Ireland (REI) said trading over the Christmas period had been challenging.

"It very much looks like the Irish Retail Industry will trade on par with Christmas 2017, at best," the group said.

Online shopping has been growing rapidly – and that’s hitting Irish retailers with 70pc of online spend going to foreign businesses.

The rise of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, discount events held before Christmas, has further encouraged shoppers to go online, REI said.
"The Irish retail industry has never experienced such volatility. It is impossible to predict what each given week will bring."
Interesting they Blame the Weather just takes up one line or so of the article, then onto the REAL REASONS ..
 
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robut

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Do they know it's Christmas? High Streets across UK appear DESERTED with just five days until the big day (as retailers bemoan surge in online shoppers)

  • High streets have been left eerily quiet on what is usually considered to be the peak trading period of the year
  • Shoppers have ditched bricks and mortar stores in favour of shopping online, leaving UK city centres empty
  • Worried shopowners blamed the lack of footfall on big online sales, bad weather and even Brexit uncertainty
  • The collection of haunting photographs were taken across the country by MailOnline yesterday afternoon
So similar picture and reasons in the UK to previous post with article from Ireland.

Looking like this Christmas more than any other in the past is gone bigly ONLINE away from B&M
 

greagh

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An ominous confluence of events , retail death in the US , markets on the verge of crashing over there , online not viable in many cases as its a race to the bottom in pricing , Brexit , trade war ,all point to the end of the economic cycle creeping up . Interest rates close to zero and QE spent out what tools are available to counter whats coming down the line ?
 

MsDaisyC

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Do they know it's Christmas? High Streets across UK appear DESERTED with just five days until the big day (as retailers bemoan surge in online shoppers)



So similar picture and reasons in the UK to previous post with article from Ireland.

Looking like this Christmas more than any other in the past is gone bigly ONLINE away from B&M
People in the DM comments have debunked that. They're not main streets, they were taken before 9am, and one is so old that 2 of the shops are different retailers than in the picture.
 

robut

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Begbies Traynor warns 30,000 retailers in “significant” financial distress

More than 30,000 retailers are in “significant” financial distress during the peak Christmas trading period, according to Begbies Traynor.

The insolvency firm found 8500 of those 30,000 are online retailers, up two per cent from the same period last year and up 49.5 per cent from the start of 2017.

“As we near the end of the crucial festive period, with many retailers pinning their hopes on a final flurry of shopper activity this weekend as more are plunged into significant financial distress, to say 2018 has been a tumultuous year is something of an understatement,” Begbies Traynor partner Julie Palmer said.

“Even online, which has been hailed as the future of the sector, is not immune.”
 

robut

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Retail gurus say 10,000 stores will shut in 2019 as toxic times hit High Street

Another 10,000 stores will shut for good next year as online competition and rising business rates choke our High Streets, experts predict.

Fears for the £366billion-a-year retail ­industry come a month after the Local Data Company revealed the number of empty shops, pubs and restaurants had soared by more than 4,400 in the first six months of 2018 alone.

The crisis has cost tens of thousands of jobs and seen major chains such as House of Fraser, Evans Cycles, Maplin and Poundworld collapse into administration in the last 12 months.

Professor Joshua Bamfield, of the Centre for Retail Research, said: “We are expecting about 10,000 shops to close in the next year.
 

robut

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What went wrong on the High Street in 2018?

In the three months to September, there were 93,000 fewer jobs in retail in the UK compared with the same period the previous year, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Two years ago, the British Retail Consortium warned there could be up to 900,000 fewer jobs in retail over the next decade - an industry that's the biggest employer in the private sector.

That prediction is now starting to play out in what's been a turbulent year.
GOOD POINT THIS:

There's also been a big shift in how consumers prioritise where they spend their money. We're splashing out more on what we do and less on what we wear.

Retail is getting a much smaller share of disposable income than it did a few decades ago.
Describes it well ...
 

robut

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Debenhams lenders brace for restructuring amid retail crisis

Lenders to Debenhams have drafted in a team of City advisers ahead of a make-or-break restructuring that will determine the department store chain's future.

Sky News has learnt that a syndicate of lenders including prominent hedge funds has appointed FTI Consulting to advise on their interest in one of Britain's biggest retailers.

FTI's appointment is understood to have been signed off just days before Christmas, with Debenhams hoping to defy expectations of a dire festive trading period for the wider non-food retail sector.
The company, which will reveal its Christmas trading performance on Thursday, said last autumn that it was taking "decisive action" to secure its future through an accelerated programme of cost savings.
I wonder will this have impact on Debenhams in Ireland?

For last month or so rumours wandering around that Debs Cork branches could be in trouble ..

Irish retail union seeks talks on Debenhams store plans
 

yosef shompeter

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If Britain is anything to go by it looks like Irish city and town centers will be lonely places... apart from Dublin, Cork Limerick Galway...and the wellknown tourist hotspots.
 

Clanrickard

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If Britain is anything to go by it looks like Irish city and town centers will be lonely places... apart from Dublin, Cork Limerick Galway...and the wellknown tourist hotspots.
That is what will happen. The government sadly is doing to alleviate this.
 
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