Retail sector has entered recession ..

robut

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Has the Retail sector entered recession? Retail Excellence says it has, CSO says NO

Concern as retail sector 'slumps into recession' - Independent.ie

The retail industry has entered recession, according to representative group Retail Excellence Ireland (REI).

The sector experienced a third consecutive quarter of decline in the first three months of 2017, the group said, citing its first-quarter 'Retail Productivity Review' collated in association with accountants Grant Thornton and research company GfK.

"Retail is continuing to contract which is in stark contrast to an improving economy and falling unemployment numbers. The figures for this quarter are most concerning"
This was being discussed on last nights Pat kenny show on TV3. I was quiet surprised that we are now in the THIRD CONSECUTIVE QUARTER which means many retail has been suffering since mid 2016.

Up to Christmas was fine for me, all seemed ok relative to previous years. It was from about mid January until now that I noticed this for the first time in my business. I mentioned this here elsewhere but was pretty much told what are you talking about and blinded with statistics to "prove me wrong" even though myself and many other SMEs were seeing this on the ground.

Last night on PK the general thoughts were this was due to Brexit and online. What was not mentioned was the possible impact of peeps not aving enough disposable income to spend in the local economy.

This is actually where SCHUBERTS comments come home to roost - Vast majority of SME's and retail here DO serve a purpose LOCALLY, fullfilling LOCAL need.

But as Schubert has said, ( and I agree, even though I am one of the useless ones ) - Many of these Local Retail businesses in the grander more Europe / global perspective ARE useless from the perspective of not really producing any thing or exporting.

The PLUS USE is that they are keeping the owner and maybe a few employees off the dole Q. BUT is this enough any more?

So onto ONLINE - I develop websites. The uptake and use of Websites by local Irish business is cr*p. What is that saying - you can bring a horse to water ....

Most Irish biz do not USE their website. They generally get a site because they "Have to" - the competitor down the road has one. The vast majority of them do not update the site once its there. They do not engage properly on social networking.

The vast majority do not have Ecommerce facilities nor sell from their site online in any way. Stupid excuses like not wanting the competitor down the road know your pricing FFS.

BUT even if all the local retail went Ecommerce and online I am not sure this would solve the problem either BECAUSE most retail here DO NOT make their own product, do not have a USP like that. They import via distributors in UK etc. So why set up and ecommerce site to sell stuff you import from the UK back to the UK and the rest of Europe??

Just like our over dependence on low Corp tax by our successive governments AND doing nothing about that like spreading the economic dependence while we had the cash during the Tiger years. The gov and business organisations here have not done enough to progress and help the local sme / retail into this new economic world and new online world?

Is it too little too late? Now that retail is already in recession? Again we react AFTER the fact, never proactively?


Data for March is due to be published by the Government statistics body on April 28.
- so lets see if the rot continues ..


TANGENTIAL TO THIS MAYBE?


Calls for minimum wage rise as workers in retail, building and legal sectors turn to soup kitchens

===================================================================

Here you go .. REI / Grant Thorton documents for last two quarters 2016 & first quarter 2017.


Grant Thornton REI Irish Retail Industry Productivity Review Q3 2016:

http://www.retailexcellence.ie/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Grant-Thornton-REI-Retail-Productivity-Review-Q3-2016.pdf


Grant Thornton Retail Excellence Irish Retail Industry Productivity Review Q4 2016:

https://www.grantthornton.ie/globalassets/1.-member-firms/ireland/insights/publications/grant-thornton---retail-excellence-retail-productivity-review-q4-2016.pdf


Grant Thornton Retail Excellence Irish Retail Industry Productivity Review Q1 2017:

http://www.retailexcellence.ie/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Grant-Thornton-Retail-Excellence-Retail-Productivity-Review-Q1-2017.pdf
 
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hammer

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Post up the figures there.

Retail sales are up every month on 2016.

Or about stagnant for the first three months of 2017 as car sales have declined.
 

hammer

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CSO figures for the sector state that in January retail sales including the motor trade were up 1.2pc year-on-year in terms of value, and down 0.3pc on the same basis in February.
 

robut

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Post up the figures there.

Retail sales are up every month on 2016.

Or about stagnant for the first three months of 2017 as car sales have declined.
If you have alt figures Hammer be my guest. I am only commenting / posting what I read in the newspapers this morning and what has come out from Grant thornton and Retail Ireland.

I have no reason to dispute their findings. I have lived it last few months.

This is not a FINE GAEL knocking thread as far as I am concerned, I couldnt care less about party politics here. This is about peoples living & lack of same for what ever reason ..
 

hollandia

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CSO figures for the sector state that in January retail sales including the motor trade were up 1.2pc year-on-year in terms of value, and down 0.3pc on the same basis in February.
Motor Trade is not the entirety of the retail sector, hammer. Let's see where the land lies when the figures come out tomorrow, eh?
 

gijoe

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CSO figures for the sector state that in January retail sales including the motor trade were up 1.2pc year-on-year in terms of value, and down 0.3pc on the same basis in February.
Note that those figures are based on 'value' not at 'constant prices' i.e. stripping out inflation. Growth/Recession is based on the 'volume' not the 'value'.
 

hammer

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Motor Trade is not the entirety of the retail sector, hammer. Let's see where the land lies when the figures come out tomorrow, eh?
Absolutely.

I didn`t hear anything previously about recession in the retail sector.

As far as I can remember Vat receipts up and retail sales were up every month in 2016 on 2015 except maybe December.

Three months into this year I would say there are up again about 2%-3%
 

robut

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CSO figures for the sector state that in January retail sales including the motor trade were up 1.2pc year-on-year in terms of value, and down 0.3pc on the same basis in February.
Yes .. But as the headline states - 3 consecutive quarter of decline in the first three months of 2017.

Again i state ... I am talking about on the ground. You do not need to try "disprove or coat over this". Thats not what this thread is about from my perspective.
 

hammer

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Yes .. But as the headline states - 3 consecutive quarter of decline in the first three months of 2017.

Again i state ... I am talking about on the ground. You do not need to try disprove or coat over this. Thats not what this thread is about from my perspective.
I`m not trying to coat anything over.

Is there a geographical breakdown ?
 

Spanner Island

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Post up the figures there.

Retail sales are up every month on 2016.

Or about stagnant for the first three months of 2017 as car sales have declined.
CSO figures for the sector state that in January retail sales including the motor trade were up 1.2pc year-on-year in terms of value, and down 0.3pc on the same basis in February.
So is Retail Excellence Ireland lying then? Their survey of retailers is a load of bullsh!t is it?

Statistics can be produced and skewed and manipulated whatever way you want...

I reckon listening to people operating on the ground is probably a better indicator than swallowing the bullsh!t from the usual suspects who vomit out numbers from their nice cosy offices ad nauseum...
 

robut

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I`m not trying to coat anything over.

Is there a geographical breakdown ?
I cannot give you that .. you read the article just as much as I did.

it would not however surprise me IF their was a geographical breakdown. As i mentioned here to ye before from other sme's i know who travel the country .. they see two distinct economies -

1. DUBLIN
2. Rest of country

Closer they go to Dublin the less or none of this, farther away from Dublin its get worse.

Problem here is our media and government seem to look out the windows in Dublin, see the cranes and assume "ah shur the COUNTRY is flying so".
 

hammer

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So is Retail Excellence Ireland lying then? Their survey of retailers is a load of bullsh!t is it?

Statistics can be produced and skewed and manipulated whatever way you want...

I reckon listening to people operating on the ground is probably a better indicator than swallowing the bullsh!t from the usual suspects who vomit out numbers from their nice cosy offices ad nauseum...
Nope. If they are the Stats.

Can you remember any report saying two previous quarters were negative ?
 

hammer

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I cannot give you that .. you read the article just as much as I did.

it would not however surprise me IF their was a geographical breakdown. As i mentioned here to ye before from other sme's i know who travel the country .. they see two distinct economies -

1. DUBLIN
2. Rest of country

Closer they go to Dublin the less or none of this, farther away from Dublin its get worse.

Problem here is much media and government seem to look out the windows in Dublin, see the crains and assume ash shur the COUNTRY is flying so.
Any yet we have a report today also saying that consumers in Rural Ireland are more confident about the future than Jackeens :)
 

robut

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Any yet we have a report today also saying that consumers in Rural Ireland are more confident about the future than Jackeens :)
So again as was asked .. From your comments you think Retail Ireland are lying?

If that is the case, fine, just say it .. stop the obfuscation

And then tell me why they would lie about this? What have they to gain out of sowing the "Myth" that 3 consecutive quarters of deterioration has resulted in a retail recession??
 

TheField

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So onto ONLINE - I develop websites. The uptake and use of Websites by local Irish business is cr*p. What is that saying - you can bring a horse to water .....
There's a bit of a fundamental disconnect in government policy as regards SMEs, rural Ireland and online business.

In that, there are two sides to the business equation - the producer and the customer. For SMEs in rural Ireland that produce goods they can sell away online but how do they get their goods into the delivery chain that is supposed to be out national postal service?? When the same government is busy closing down the outlets (local post offices) where these goods may enter the delivery chain.

Yer man McRedmond waffles on about how people are sending less mail and prices must rise etc. He never seems to address the fact that he's busy closing his collection points for the online parcel service that is supposed to sustain An Post into the future.

In my rural based business, I face a serious problem going forward in terms of delivery of goods to customers.
 

hammer

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So again as was asked .. From your comments you think Retail Ireland are lying?

If that is the case, fine, just say it .. stop the obfuscation
I have no reason to believe they are lying.

I just cannot remember them posting the previous two quarters figures showing retail sales falling.
 

truthandjustice

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They'll be blaming this on brexit , "tis all the brexits fault". That's what they'll say. The sensible and intelligent will know that the EU is the real problem.
 

robut

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There's a bit of a fundamental disconnect in government policy as regards SMEs, rural Ireland and online business.

In that, there are two sides to the business equation - the producer and the customer. For SMEs in rural Ireland that produce goods they can sell away online but how do they get their goods into the delivery chain that is supposed to be out national postal service?? When the same government is busy closing down the outlets (local post offices) where these goods may enter the delivery chain.

Yer man McRedmond waffles on about how people are sending less mail and prices must rise etc. He never seems to address the fact that he's busy closing his collection points for the online parcel service that is supposed to sustain An Post into the future.
In listening last night to Kenny show they were discussing the Online offering that local Irish biz needs to get into

And what were they using as examples??

AMAZON .. Saying it was Amazon that stripped much of local retail last Christmas. To be honest ( and be that as it may re Amazon & Xmas ) .. that is a lousy example as a blueprint for Irish local retail online going forward. The economies of scale and offering are completely different.

Also used IKEA in Dublin. This order online, pick up in store. That might be a bit closer, but again SCALE. A strategy needs to be put into place with guidance for local retail and SMEs and how THEY could progress within their scale .. They will never compete with AMAZON or IKEA?
 

bokuden

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So fg have engineered a retail recession eh? This explains their sudden move to hand state land over to developers. They're probably hoping that an increased demand for breakfast rolls will keep the local shops in business.
 


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