Retailers struggling?

[andrew]

I've heard from a few different places that big retailers are struggling, people just arent spending like they have in previous years. A quick look at the ads in the newspapers seems to support it. Most big retailers are massively discounting, for long periods to get shoppers in. They have probably ordered in a lot of stock for Christmas, and cant get rid of it, so are slashing profit margins so they wont be stuck with lots of unsold stock.

Arnotts for example has had 20% off sales (on nearly everything) over the past few weeks, the first time its ever happened before Christmas apparently. Their sales figures where down quite a bit due to increased competition, and people being more cautious with their spending.

Has anyone else noticed this?

 

[meriwether]

People are spending their dosh in New York.
Not me, but a lot of people have jetted over. Its bound to have an effect.

 

[locke]

I saw a whole section of games in Debenhams that were on sale at half price. A bit strange this far before Christmas. Still, I picked one up for the brother-in-law.

 

[kerrynorth]

Well Arnott's and other department store type retailer sales can be put down directly down the people travelling to the US and across the border to avail of the weak $ and £. But there has been a more general fall of. I have seen footfall data which showed a 3% fall in shoppers in November and of course the VAT revenue did suddenly take a sharp downturn in the November revenue returns which would reflect slower spending in the September/October period. PS expect large redundancies in the department store retailers in the new year after the sales. Debenhams at Manor in Tralee laid of 30 a few months ago and they have had a number of sales since seemingly to no avail. Redundancies on that scale in the retail sector are pretty well unheard of these days.

 

[andrew]

Well Arnott's and other department store type retailer sales can be put down directly down the people travelling to the US and across the border to avail of the weak $ and £. But there has been a more general fall of. I have seen footfall data which showed a 3% fall in shoppers in November and of course the VAT revenue did suddenly take a sharp downturn in the November revenue returns which would reflect slower spending in the September/October period.

It would be interesting to find out if people are just spending less overall, or if they are spending it elsewhere. Are higher interest rates biting? Or are we unconsiously collectively preparing for a downturn by increasing our cash reserves?

 

[hiker]

Well Arnott's and other department store type retailer sales can be put down directly down the people travelling to the US and across the border to avail of the weak $ and £. But there has been a more general fall of. I have seen footfall data which showed a 3% fall in shoppers in November and of course the VAT revenue did suddenly take a sharp downturn in the November revenue returns which would reflect slower spending in the September/October period.

It would be interesting to find out if people are just spending less overall, or if they are spending it elsewhere. Are higher interest rates biting? Or are we unconsiously collectively preparing for a downturn by increasing our cash reserves?

I have spend about 66% less than I did last christmas. I'm smashed.
Told the kids not to expect too much.
A major reigning in of expendidture in my household and I would consider myself to be the basic Joe Bloggs in financial terms.

 

[kerrynorth]

Well Arnott's and other department store type retailer sales can be put down directly down the people travelling to the US and across the border to avail of the weak $ and £. But there has been a more general fall of. I have seen footfall data which showed a 3% fall in shoppers in November and of course the VAT revenue did suddenly take a sharp downturn in the November revenue returns which would reflect slower spending in the September/October period.

It would be interesting to find out if people are just spending less overall, or if they are spending it elsewhere. Are higher interest rates biting? Or are we unconsiously collectively preparing for a downturn by increasing our cash reserves?

Its basically a combination of the strong Euro to the $ and £, higher inflation of non-discretionary spending items like oil and mortgages and collateral damage from falling property values which fueled retail spending through equity releases and the feel-good factor which is no more!

 

[clareman51]

With new stores, malls, and outlets opening every week, the spending pie has to be divided among more shops.

 

[Tipp North]

I sold a shop in kilkenny last year, and even back then the screws were tightening. From talking to retailers that are still there, I'm glad I got out while I could. It's virtually impossible to sell a lease for a shop unit at the moment (in Kilkenny anyway).

It always pi$$es me off when I hear people like Conor Pope encouraging shoppers to buy online for their Christmas shopping. They point out that items are so much cheaper than in high street shops. Of course they are, online shops don't have to pay: Rates, rent or Shopping Centre mgmt fees. These costs are massive, trust me. If I was making a profit I wouldn't have sold.

 

[kerrynorth]

With new stores, malls, and outlets opening every week, the spending pie has to be divided among more shops.

That is not what we are saying at all. What is coming clear is that the pie is falling a bit even if there is more competition for a share of that pie which is incidental.


Here those November football figures I refered to http://www.businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=1926795

 

[Kf]

Well Arnott's and other department store type retailer sales can be put down directly down the people travelling to the US and across the border to avail of the weak $ and £. But there has been a more general fall of. I have seen footfall data which showed a 3% fall in shoppers in November and of course the VAT revenue did suddenly take a sharp downturn in the November revenue returns which would reflect slower spending in the September/October period.

It would be interesting to find out if people are just spending less overall, or if they are spending it elsewhere. Are higher interest rates biting? Or are we unconsiously collectively preparing for a downturn by increasing our cash reserves?

I have spend about 66% less than I did last christmas. I'm smashed.
Told the kids not to expect too much.
A major reigning in of expendidture in my household and I would consider myself to be the basic Joe Bloggs in financial terms.

Thats a huge drop, can you outline why, is the sector you work in suffering?

 

[drbob1972]

what would be interesting to see is credit card spending rates, some segments of retail may be struggling as shoppers move to a combination or high street, internet and US/ UK as already mentioned above, looking at CC spending rates and trending against last year could give a more accurate view of both the state of the consumer spend and sentiment, anyone know if that data is published ?

 

[noodles]

Tesco last weekend were discounting all boxes of biscuits/ chocolates by 30%.

Their business for the last few years seems to have been, order broadly speaking what they ordered last year and add 5%

 

[Akrasia]

The rises in interest rates this year have left mortgage holders with much less disposable income than they had this time last year, and with falling house prices, people are no longer able or willing to borrow against the equity of their homes.

 

[hiker]

Well Arnott's and other department store type retailer sales can be put down directly down the people travelling to the US and across the border to avail of the weak $ and £. But there has been a more general fall of. I have seen footfall data which showed a 3% fall in shoppers in November and of course the VAT revenue did suddenly take a sharp downturn in the November revenue returns which would reflect slower spending in the September/October period.

It would be interesting to find out if people are just spending less overall, or if they are spending it elsewhere. Are higher interest rates biting? Or are we unconsiously collectively preparing for a downturn by increasing our cash reserves?

I have spend about 66% less than I did last christmas. I'm smashed.
Told the kids not to expect too much.
A major reigning in of expendidture in my household and I would consider myself to be the basic Joe Bloggs in financial terms.

Thats a huge drop, can you outline why, is the sector you work in suffering?

I'm self employed but I havent taken a payrise in over 2 years. That equates to a drop of about 10% in real terms.
Couple that with an increase in mortgages and general price inflation and, bingo, I'm smashed.

I'm going to attempt a payrise in january of about 5%.

 

[hiker]

Thats a huge drop, can you outline why, is the sector you work in suffering?

I forgot to mention that my sector is not suffering, its expanding.
My cautios nature (its a curse!) dictated that there would be no payrises until I was happy that the two new people I employed in January 2007 were able to fit financially.
Its a small family business and it pays about 5 mortgages so I did'nt want to stretch it beyond breaking point and then have to let the guys go that I had just employed.

Its a tricky tightrope and I'll never be a millionaire out of it but at least we are all working and (just about) getting by.

 

[clareman51]

I think it was Johnson or Pepys who wrote that if the income of a person is one pound and he spends 21 shillings, misery will follow. If he spends 19 shillings, he will feel rich.

 

[Dillinger]

I've heard from a few different places that big retailers are struggling, people just arent spending like they have in previous years. A quick look at the ads in the newspapers seems to support it. Most big retailers are massively discounting, for long periods to get shoppers in. They have probably ordered in a lot of stock for Christmas, and cant get rid of it, so are slashing profit margins so they wont be stuck with lots of unsold stock.

Arnotts for example has had 20% off sales (on nearly everything) over the past few weeks, the first time its ever happened before Christmas apparently. Their sales figures where down quite a bit due to increased competition, and people being more cautious with their spending.

Has anyone else noticed this?

I have yet to set foot in a store in Dublin to buy something this winter, which is a first for me since I moved back from London in 1995. I was in NY visiting family in September, and I managed to get alot of shopping done for a fraction of the cost.

 

[kerrynorth]

For comparative purposes the exchequer expected in their revenue profiling to collect E2.169billion from VAT in November; they collected just E1.875billion - E294million or 13.5% less than they expected. The November returns would broadly reflect September/October spending patterns. Although it is hard to pin down what of this shortfall would reflect retail spending no doubt some of it would when you consider that VAT on some of the larger items such as electricity and telecommunications etc are pretty stable and easily calculated.

 

[theyshootPDsdontthey]

I think it was Johnson or Pepys who wrote that if the income of a person is one pound and he spends 21 shillings, misery will follow. If he spends 19 shillings, he will feel rich.

Was an Irishman the bould Jonathan Swift