Roll Over Leo bullied into paying back Anglo bondholders


SPN

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So why have we been in an ongoing, decade-plus economic depression that would far outlast any knock-on effects of the outcome you describe?
Go back to my analogy earlier in the thread.

We didn't have a "decade-plus economic depression".

Paddy got a lot of overtime for a couple of years, then the overtime stopped.

The Irish Economy got a massive boost whenever the bank lending ponzi scheme was in full flow, then the ponzi scheme stopped.

Paddy blew his overtime windfall on hookers and blow, a couple of new cars on the never-never, a McMansion, shopping trips to New York, and a holiday pad in Bulgaria.

The Irish Economy blew the ponzi scheme windfall on a 50% increase in recurring spending, straight into the pockets of the PS, CS and Social Partners (who píssed it away on hookers and blow and all the other vices mentioned above).

Whenever this here overtime bubble stopped, Paddy decided that he liked the high life, so he went to the Credit Union and borrowed the equivalent of the lost overtime and píssed it away on evern more hookers and blow, etc.

The Irish Economy went to the Troika and the Draghi Put instead of the Credit Union.



Your complaint is that you were not a beneficiary of the largesse doled out to the PS/CS & Social Partners from the €120 Billion of excessive spending.

Most of the rest of us were not beneficiaries either.

But we don't whinge about it.
 

SPN

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Ah yea, FFG's magic money tree......
Don't forget AmateurFF.

Howlin was Minister for Public Overexpenditure and No Public Sector Reform whenever most of the damage was done.
 

SamsonS

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So why have we been in an ongoing, decade-plus economic depression that would far outlast any knock-on effects of the outcome you describe?
Because we were running deficiits each and every year. From 25b down to whatever it was last year 1b or so.

What happened over the last 10 years was income from tax was increased, current expenditure/spemding was also increased, but at a slower rate than tax, and capital expenditure was hammered.


On another note, the NTMA estimated that if bond holders had been burned if would have saved 9b. If that had happened in 2008/9, and everything else remained the same we would have saved about 400m each year in interest payments. So that would have meant 400m "less" of cuts, or 400m of additional spending, in each budget.
 
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SPN

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Because we were running deficiits each and every year. From 25b down to whatever it was last year 1b or so.

What happened over the last 10 years was income from tax was increased, current expenditure/spemding was also increased, but at a slower rate than tax, and capital expenditure was hammered.
And people wonder why there is a housing shortage (and shortages of other critical infrastructure).




On another note, the NTMA estimated that if bond holders had been burned if would have saved 9b. If that had happened in 2008/9, and everything else remained the same we would have saved about 400m each year in interest payments. So that would have meant 400m "less" of cuts, or 400m of additional spending, in each budget.
Tell us more about this €9 Billion?

The total amount borrowed from the ECB by the Banks was €150 Billion to €160 Billion.

The total loaned out under the Guarantee was €1.1 Billion (of which €1 Billion has since been repaid).

What is this €9 Billion and how does it fit into the equation?
 

SamsonS

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And people wonder why there is a housing shortage (and shortages of other critical infrastructure).






Tell us more about this €9 Billion?

The total amount borrowed from the ECB by the Banks was €150 Billion to €160 Billion.

The total loaned out under the Guarantee was €1.1 Billion (of which €1 Billion has since been repaid).

What is this €9 Billion and how does it fit into the equation?
Burning bondholders ‘could have saved the State €9bn’

I am assuming the 9b would have come off the Anglo bill, and the 400m is just an estimate of average interest we paid on that 9b over the period.
 
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SPN

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It all seems a bit hypothetical.

Is it the usual story of a churnalist going for the headline and not quite understanding the story behind it?



Let's go back to October 12th 2008.



The ECB was to provide the liquidity to all EU Banks.

They provided +/-€150 Billion to the Irish Banks (25% of all liquidity provided to all EU banks)

This €150 Billion was used to repay maturing bonds and other liquidity that needed to be refinanced.


The EU member States were to provide any capital their respective banks needed.

The Irish Banks needed +/-€64 Billion in capital in the short term to bring their ratios back to normal after the original shareholders and other providers of appropriate risk capital had to take the hit for the losses.


Would this particular €9 Billion be Anglo Bonds, which, if "burden shared" could have reduced the amount of capital that Anglo required to get their ratios straight?




(Note to self: Read this tomorrow: http://www.tara.tcd.ie/bitstream/handle/2262/75031/3 lane jssisi 2014-5.pdf;sequence=1 )
 

SuirView

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Confidence and supply agreements are the "just the tip!" of coalition politics.

Not that the Civil War hegemony weren't two and a half cheeks of the same rear end.
What does your boss 'Ted Tynan' think?
Are you still employed by him?
 

SamsonS

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QUOTE=SPN;12561360]"
Would this particular €9 Billion be Anglo Bonds, which, if "burden shared" could have reduced the amount of capital that Anglo required to get their ratios straight?"

...........As it was from NTMA I would give it some credibility.

If......the FRN's , the 25b of so element of our 206b gross debt, would have been 16b instead of that 25b, if everything else remained the same of course!





what is this 6 character nonsense?
 

SPN

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"Would this particular €9 Billion be Anglo Bonds, which, if "burden shared" could have reduced the amount of capital that Anglo required to get their ratios straight?"
...........As it was from NTMA I would give it some credibility.

I'm not questioning the NTMA.

I'm questioning the accuracy of the report.

I must have a look at the testimony again over the weekend and see what the context was and if there is any more detail.


If......the FRN's , the 25b of so element of our 206b gross debt, would have been 16b instead of that 25b, if everything else remained the same of course!
That's what I'm wondering.

The EU strategy was to drive on. Everybody else was doing that, with positive results, and they expected us to do it too.

But we had been playing silly buggers during the bubble and now the chickens were coming home to roost.



what is this 6 character nonsense?
Qué?
 

Paddy{ie

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Go back to my analogy earlier in the thread.

We didn't have a "decade-plus economic depression".

Paddy got a lot of overtime for a couple of years, then the overtime stopped.

The Irish Economy got a massive boost whenever the bank lending ponzi scheme was in full flow, then the ponzi scheme stopped.

Paddy blew his overtime windfall on hookers and blow, a couple of new cars on the never-never, a McMansion, shopping trips to New York, and a holiday pad in Bulgaria.

The Irish Economy blew the ponzi scheme windfall on a 50% increase in recurring spending, straight into the pockets of the PS, CS and Social Partners (who píssed it away on hookers and blow and all the other vices mentioned above).

Whenever this here overtime bubble stopped, Paddy decided that he liked the high life, so he went to the Credit Union and borrowed the equivalent of the lost overtime and píssed it away on evern more hookers and blow, etc.

The Irish Economy went to the Troika and the Draghi Put instead of the Credit Union.



Your complaint is that you were not a beneficiary of the largesse doled out to the PS/CS & Social Partners from the €120 Billion of excessive spending.

Most of the rest of us were not beneficiaries either.

But we don't whinge about it.
By the 3rd left hair on the left side of my moustache, that fairy story almost comes up to the standard of the Brothers Grimm.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Unsecured bondholders are, in effect, gamblers.
You know that, so why not just stop being pedantic and cut the sh1te?
Bonds were redeemed via ELA from the ECB. There was zero cost to the State.
 

hiding behind a poster

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So why have we been in an ongoing, decade-plus economic depression that would far outlast any knock-on effects of the outcome you describe?
It's been explained to you again and again and again on this thread. Why don't you read? But here it is, yet again, in a short and simple form:

1) Pre-2008, banks were flooding the economy with cheap money,mainly for property. They were doing this because there was an international bank lending bubble, so cheap money was sloshing around world banking markets. Lending it out and getting a return was a piece of cake.

2) People in Ireland were spending this borrowed money (€40 billion a year at its peak), and about €15 billion of that spending was finding its way back to the Exchequer in various taxes, everything from income tax to VAT to stamp duty. That €15 billion a year was also creating enough economic activity to support about 250,000 jobs - mainly in the property sector, but also in retail.

Are you with me this far? Let me know if you're not.

3) The international bank lending bubble burst. Suddenly the banks couldn't keep rolling over that cheap money, suddenly banks were no longer lending to each other, because no bank trusted the assets of any other bank, because they knew how shaky their own assets were.

4) This meant that even if letting the Irish banks fail would have no negative consequences, or even if there was a cost-free way to rescue the Irish banks, that €40 billion a year in cheap money that those banks had been borrowing on the international markets and pumping into the Irish economy, was GONE. GONE. Because banks were no longer lending to each other at all, as they were all scared sh*tless.

5) So, before any tax rise or spending cut, there's already €40 billion a year less economic activity in Ireland each year. That means that those 250,000 jobs that were supported by all that borrowed money had no means of support anymore. Suppose you build houses for a living. If nobody can borrow money to buy a house, then you're out of business, right? Suppose you sell furniture for a living. If people are no longer buying houses, they won't be buying funiture either. So that's you out of business too. Remember how you used to take your wife out for dinner every Friday night? Well now you're out of business, so you can't afford that anymore. Now the restaurant is struggling as well.

You still with me?

6) The government of the day was using that €15 billion a year in windfall tax revenues (remember the €15 billion) to pump up public sector pay, to pump up all welfare payments, and to cut taxes. All in order to get re-elected, which it did. But even during that bubble, it was barely balancing the budget. So as soon as the bubble burst, there was a deficit of €15 billion, and the increases in unemployment caused by the bubble money vanishing increased welfare and health costs, by about €5 billion. So there's your budget deficit of €20 billion a year, right there.

7) By about 2009 we were spending €60 billion, and taking in about €40 billion. That's not sustainable. We tried borrowing, but nobody will lend to you for long with figures like that, because they'll correctly calculate that if you don't fix your finances, they'll never get their money back. So first our cost of borrowing rose to reflect that risk, and then the markets just said no. So the government of the day first had to increase taxes and cut spending. But what they did wasn't enough, so in order to be lent money from the IMF/EU, we had to cut more spending and raise more taxes.

That's it, basically. And it was tough, but it worked. But the key point, in terms of your understanding of all this, is point 4). Even if rescuing the banks had been free, we would still have had to do all this.

Finally, we are not in a decade-long, ongoing economic depression. The economy has been growing strongly for about 5 years now. The evidence is everywhere, you just refuse to see it.
 

hiding behind a poster

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By the 3rd left hair on the left side of my moustache, that fairy story almost comes up to the standard of the Brothers Grimm.
What part of it isn't accurate?
 
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Paddy{ie

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What part of it isn't accurate?
Not everyone is you or SPN.

“Paddy blew his overtime windfall on hookers and blow, a couple of new cars on the never-never, a McMansion, shopping trips to New York, and a holiday pad in Bulgaria.“
 

Paddy{ie

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What part of it isn't accurate?
Not everyone is you or SPN.

“Paddy blew his overtime windfall on hookers and blow, a couple of new cars on the never-never, a McMansion, shopping trips to New York, and a holiday pad in Bulgaria.“

Analogies are an excuse, not a truth
 

hiding behind a poster

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Not everyone is you or SPN.

“Paddy blew his overtime windfall on hookers and blow, a couple of new cars on the never-never, a McMansion, shopping trips to New York, and a holiday pad in Bulgaria.“

Analogies are an excuse, not a truth
I think most people would be capable of understanding SPN's analogy. Clearly you're not.
 

SPN

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I think most people would be capable of understanding SPN's analogy. Clearly you're not.
It's not about whether he understands it or not.

All he is interested in is trolling.

Don't feed the trolls.
 

Eventualities

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You are wasting your time trying to teach kids about money. When all they do is keep spouting stuff off leaflets left laying around some Students union sweet shop.
Says a lad who has contributed precisely zero to the discussion. The right does love its cheerleading, though
 

Eventualities

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Go back to my analogy earlier in the thread.

We didn't have a "decade-plus economic depression".

Paddy got a lot of overtime for a couple of years, then the overtime stopped.

The Irish Economy got a massive boost whenever the bank lending ponzi scheme was in full flow, then the ponzi scheme stopped.

Paddy blew his overtime windfall on hookers and blow, a couple of new cars on the never-never, a McMansion, shopping trips to New York, and a holiday pad in Bulgaria.

The Irish Economy blew the ponzi scheme windfall on a 50% increase in recurring spending, straight into the pockets of the PS, CS and Social Partners (who píssed it away on hookers and blow and all the other vices mentioned above).

Whenever this here overtime bubble stopped, Paddy decided that he liked the high life, so he went to the Credit Union and borrowed the equivalent of the lost overtime and píssed it away on evern more hookers and blow, etc.

The Irish Economy went to the Troika and the Draghi Put instead of the Credit Union.



Your complaint is that you were not a beneficiary of the largesse doled out to the PS/CS & Social Partners from the €120 Billion of excessive spending.

Most of the rest of us were not beneficiaries either.

But we don't whinge about it.
Only someone like you could take austerity and turn it into an attack on public services.

But I keep asking you the same question because that's not an answer.
 
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