Romney wins IOWA poll. Huckabee 2nd as Ron Paul flops

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Insider2007

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GOP presidential nomination candidate Mitt Romney has as expected won the Iowa straw poll by a clear margin. Romney won 32% (4516 votes) to Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee's 18% (2587) and Senator Sam Brownback's 15% (2192). Huckabee's and Brownback's performances make them viable candidates for the presidential nomination

The poor showing of Tommy Thompson, who declared before the vote that he would drop out in the event of not finishing number 1 or number 2, is likely to end his race. He finished 6th with 7%.

Neither Senator John McCain, Rudy Giuliani nor Law and Order actor-and- politician Fred Thompson ran in the race, though their names were on the ballot paper. The poor showing of Duncan Hunter, in a race where the main challengers had opted out, may well end his presidential bid.

Another flop was controversial libertarian republican congressman Ron Paul who, though he had received the backing of a massive internet campaign which had flooded internet sites with with supportive messages (including this one), and was supported by large numbers of out-of-state young people who had travelled to the event to canvass for him, achieved only 9%, far less than the predictions of supporters.

The performance of the 11 nominated candidates were:
1. Mitt Romney –32 percent
2. Mike Huckabee – 18 percent
3. Sam Brownback – 15 percent
4. Tom Tancredo – 14 percent
5. Ron Paul – 9 percent
6. Tommy Thompson — 7 percent
7. Fred Thompson – 1 percent
8. Rudolph W. Giuliani – 1 percent
9. Duncan Hunter – 1 percent
10. John McCain (less than 1 percent)
11. John Cox (less than 1 percent)

With McCain's campaign in chaos and freefall, the race is thought likely to be between Giuliani and Romney. Both have strong positives and negatives for conservatives, a key part of the Republican core. Guiliani wins plaudits for her performance as New York major during 9/11, but criticism over his liberal views on gay rights and abortion, his religion - only one Catholic, John F Kennedy, ever became president, while Al Smith and John Kerry both lost) and his personal life - he has been divorced twice, the second time during his period as mayor when the divorce's bitterness earned international coverage. Romney's clean-cut family image contrasts to Giuliani's, but his flip-flopping on a range of issues including abortion, and his past declaration in a Senate race that he was more liberal than Ted Kennedy, may hurt him, as might his religion - many conservatives regard his Jesus Christ of the latter Day Saints as not being a Christian church. Whether they would elect someone they perceive as not being a Christian is a point being speculated about.

The strong showing of Huckabee and Brownback may make them viable contenders and potential serious challengers for the GOP nomination. Governor Huckabee's performance was seen as stronger than expected, and should guarantee him a place in the race at least until the later stages, if not all the way to the convention and beyond.

The momentum of the race may be affected by the suggestion by President Bush's new Iraq War czar, Army Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute, that the draft may have to be introduced, upping the similiarities between Iraq and the Vietnam War. The US has not operated a draft since 1973 and its re-appearance as an issue may prove highly controversial and unpopular with voters.

The Republican count was marred however by serious problems with the voting software. Ron Paul supporters had sought an injunction to prevent it being used, only to lose in two courts. Academics have already suggested that the system, which was widely used in the 2004 presidential election, is capable of producing fraudulant results if tampered with. The failure of electronic voting to perform when only counting less than 20,000 votes raises questions as to its continued use in nationwide federal and state elections.


politics.ie report

New York Times result

New York Times candidate reaction

Forbes Magazine description of the event.
 


youngdan

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This result is a disaster for Romney. He spent a fortune running against a weak field and could get 4516 votes. He bought 10000 tickets. His whole campaign hinged on Iowa and NH. He is cooked. The big winners are Huckabee and Tancredo. Brownback is a loser because there is not room for both him and Huckabee. Paul will be somewhat happy at 9% instead of 2 in a state that really suits Brownback and Huckabee. Rudy just wishs places like Iowa didn't exist as liberal ideas do not wash here. There are still 100 fools who voted for the lousy pilot. Fred would have hoped that he would have gotten more than a couple hundred in the complete state. It is surprising that Hunter did so badly because his war message is the same as Rudy and on immigration he is tough. I forgot about Tommy Thompson and now everyone can.
 

Insider2007

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youngdan said:
This result is a disaster for Romney. He spent a fortune running against a weak field and could get 4516 votes. He bought 10000 tickets. His whole campaign hinged on Iowa and NH. He is cooked. The big winners are Huckabee and Tancredo. Brownback is a loser because there is not room for both him and Huckabee. Paul will be somewhat happy at 9% instead of 2 in a state that really suits Brownback and Huckabee. Rudy just wishs places like Iowa didn't exist as liberal ideas do not wash here. There are still 100 fools who voted for the lousy pilot. Fred would have hoped that he would have gotten more than a couple hundred in the complete state. It is surprising that Hunter did so badly because his war message is the same as Rudy and on immigration he is tough. I forgot about Tommy Thompson and now everyone can.
It isn't a disaster for him. Neither is it a triumph. To get around half of the tickets you bought is the standard return in politics. People factor in the fact that up to half of their "supporters" won't support them. He had to break 30% of the total poll to get taken seriously as a viable candidate. He had to break 40% to ensure the rest of the pack in the race were dead in the water.

The result will be enough to make him viable for the real caucuses and primaries, at least as a base point. It is a start, just not a kick start. Huckabee is however someone who has got the kickstart from the straw poll. In reality, only the top three, perhaps four, did well enough to be seen as credible candidates in the real race. The rest were also-rans. Thompson and Hunter are dead in the water. Paul like Howard Dean before him has learnt that internet campaigns don't transfer into real votes on the ground.

McCain, Guiliani and Fred Thompson were wise to avoid the straw poll. Unless one of them won at least 50% of the result it would be seen as poor, given their celibacy status compared to the other 'minnows'. So it was really a no-win race for them, though the way McCain is going he probably won't make it until even the first primary.

It looks at this very early stage as though the real runners and riders in the real race will be

* Giuliani
* Romney
* Huckabee
* Brownback
* Tancredo
* Fred Thompson

That then raises the question of whether Gingrich will enter.

However the campaign could be thrown into all sorts of problems with the issue of the draft now raised by Bush's Iraq czar. There is no issue more likely to do fatal damage to the republican candidate than the slightest suspicion of a draft.
 

youngdan

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Insider. Everyone agrees that Huckabee was the big winner. He spent very little money. Romney has spent about 15 million in Iowa for ads running continously for 6 months. Watching him as the results were read he looked a defeated man. Look at the percentage for the two religous candidates, the big 3 abstainers would have been bruised badly. They have a total of 7 wives between them. This is Iowa not Beverly Hills. Paul has gone from being unknown to 9% in 4 months. Brownback is really screwed because he did well enough to stay but his whole effort was Iowa and he got beat by Huckabee who he needed to knock out today. Gingrich will be very tempted now. He knows that he can beat the top 4 has beens because they being fully known will not pick up new fans. He will fear Huckabee and Paul because they being rather unknown to most will have room to grow. Tancredo will stick around but he has little charisma and only one issue.
 

Insider2007

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youngdan said:
Insider. Everyone agrees that Huckabee was the big winner. He spent very little money. Romney has spent about 15 million in Iowa for ads running continously for 6 months. Watching him as the results were read he looked a defeated man. Look at the percentage for the two religous candidates, the big 3 abstainers would have been bruised badly. They have a total of 7 wives between them. This is Iowa not Beverly Hills. Paul has gone from being unknown to 9% in 4 months. Brownback is really screwed because he did well enough to stay but his whole effort was Iowa and he got beat by Huckabee who he needed to knock out today. Gingrich will be very tempted now. He knows that he can beat the top 4 has beens because they being fully known will not pick up new fans. He will fear Huckabee and Paul because they being rather unknown to most will have room to grow. Tancredo will stick around but he has little charisma and only one issue.
Jesus Dan will you cut the Paul crap. The guy is dead in the water. He had vast numbers of young people from all over the US travel to Iowa for a one-to-one lobby of a couple of thousand people in a set location and STILL could only get 9% after 4 months of hard slog. If he can only get 9% in that sort of situation where it is one-on-one, where a mass lobby can help, and where the big guys are absent then he is dead in the water. And you know that.

It doesn't matter how much Romney spent. What matters is that he won by a sufficiently big margin to get himself entry into the real race. So did Huckabee. Tancredo maybe. Brownback probably. The rest are dead. This Ron Paul rubbish is getting as tedious as it is rubbish.
 

youngdan

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Insider. You must be slipping as the hour is late. You say that he had vast numbers come from all over the US. A couple of thousand no less, impressive. Paul spent very little time in Iowa and opened an office there only last week. I hope people understand the ramifications of the 300 billion bailout last Thursday and Friday. I have read that it is a 10% increase in the money supply in Europe where most of it took place. Weimar economics is going to dominate this election cycle with China now threatening the so called nuclear option. The European banks have made a big mistake selling their gold to the Russians and Chinese. If the American electorate can grasp what is happening then this election will be interesting. Having said that do you agree that Newt has nothing to fear from Romney, Judy, Fred Flintstone or the Lousy Pilot?
 

eyes_west

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Ron Paul is up and Running for President.

He has gone from nowhere to 9% in Iowa with little money spent.

To quote Insider "Ron Paul had VAST numbers of young people from all over the U.S travel to Iowa" to lobby.

To qoute Insider "Paul has learned that internet votes dont transfer into votes on the ground"

Thats called having your cake and eating it. He either has vast support from young people or not. You said he has VAST NUMBERS OF YOUNG PEOPLE.

Those young people did travel to Iowa and in a matter of days they had managed to convince 9% to vote for Ron Paul.

To educate you Insider i must inform you that THE VAST NUMBERS OF YOUNG PEOPLE WHO CAME FROM ALL OVER THE U.S. as you put it COULD NOT VOTE IF THEY WERE NOT FROM IOWA!!!!!

9% is a great launch pad.

Insider knows it, and is worried.

I love it!
 

Meursault

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The Paulites remind me of Joe Liberman's speech after he bombed in New Hampshire in 2004 declaring that he had Joementum.
 

green

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eyes_west said:
Ron Paul is up and Running for President.

He has gone from nowhere to 9% in Iowa with little money spent.

To quote Insider "Ron Paul had VAST numbers of young people from all over the U.S travel to Iowa" to lobby.

To qoute Insider "Paul has learned that internet votes dont transfer into votes on the ground"

Thats called having your cake and eating it. He either has vast support from young people or not. You said he has VAST NUMBERS OF YOUNG PEOPLE.

Those young people did travel to Iowa and in a matter of days they had managed to convince 9% to vote for Ron Paul.

To educate you Insider i must inform you that THE VAST NUMBERS OF YOUNG PEOPLE WHO CAME FROM ALL OVER THE U.S. as you put it COULD NOT VOTE IF THEY WERE NOT FROM IOWA!!!!!

9% is a great launch pad.

Insider knows it, and is worried.

I love it!
Good Lord. Are you illiterate, or just stupid? It should be a matter of concern for Paul that, despite the large (possibly even vast) numbers of youth volunteers mobilised for his campaign from all over the USA, and the farce that is the Ames Straw Poll, 9% was the best he could do, which is exactly what Insider said before you went all angelcountry on him.

These trolls are sounding more and more LaRouche by the day.
 

pluralist

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green said:
Good Lord. Are you illiterate, or just stupid? It should be a matter of concern for Paul that, despite the large (possibly even vast) numbers of youth volunteers mobilised for his campaign from all over the USA, and the farce that is the Ames Straw Poll, 9% was the best he could do, which is exactly what Insider said before you went all angelcountry on him..
9% is a reasonably good showing, given that the corporate media have largely ignored Paul (except when they want to smear him.)

It's disappointing to see you siding with a person like Insider2007, who obviously has a problem with democracy.


green said:
These trolls are sounding more and more LaRouche by the day.
This comment does you no credit.
 

green

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pluralist said:
green said:
Good Lord. Are you illiterate, or just stupid? It should be a matter of concern for Paul that, despite the large (possibly even vast) numbers of youth volunteers mobilised for his campaign from all over the USA, and the farce that is the Ames Straw Poll, 9% was the best he could do, which is exactly what Insider said before you went all angelcountry on him..
9% is a reasonably good showing, given that the corporate media have largely ignored Paul (except when they want to smear him.)

It's disappointing to see you siding with a person like Insider2007, who obviously has a problem with democracy.


green said:
These trolls are sounding more and more LaRouche by the day.
This comment does you no credit.
Don't get me wrong - I do have time for Paul. He appeals to the heartless libertarian in me, though he'll never hold any elected office higher than Congressman.
These fanboy "politicians", however, campaigning for him ceaselessly on a site devoted to discussing the politics of a country 3,000 miles away, and continually hyping his non-existent chances, really get on my tits. So does inability to read posts correctly and ridiculing what you think was posted, rather than what was actually posted, as eyes_west did with Insider's last post. That was what I meant by the LaRouche comment - by their complete failure to even acknowledge the uphill struggle Paul faces, and their willingness to attack anyone who disagrees, the Paulites' campaign starts to take on a brainwashed, cultish, even vaguely sinister element (which is nothing to do with Paul himself).

And God knows I disagree with a hell of a lot of what Insider has to say, but to his credit the Paulites seem to piss him off as much as they do me.
 

clareman51

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I think 9% is probably the zenith of Paul's aspirations. No amount of trolling on this site is going to increase that number.
 

Worldbystorm

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green said:
pluralist said:
green said:
Good Lord. Are you illiterate, or just stupid? It should be a matter of concern for Paul that, despite the large (possibly even vast) numbers of youth volunteers mobilised for his campaign from all over the USA, and the farce that is the Ames Straw Poll, 9% was the best he could do, which is exactly what Insider said before you went all angelcountry on him..
9% is a reasonably good showing, given that the corporate media have largely ignored Paul (except when they want to smear him.)

It's disappointing to see you siding with a person like Insider2007, who obviously has a problem with democracy.


green said:
These trolls are sounding more and more LaRouche by the day.
This comment does you no credit.
Don't get me wrong - I do have time for Paul. He appeals to the heartless libertarian in me, though he'll never hold any elected office higher than Congressman.
These fanboy "politicians", however, campaigning for him ceaselessly on a site devoted to discussing the politics of a country 3,000 miles away, and continually hyping his non-existent chances, really get on my tits. So does inability to read posts correctly and ridiculing what you think was posted, rather than what was actually posted, as eyes_west did with Insider's last post. That was what I meant by the LaRouche comment - by their complete failure to even acknowledge the uphill struggle Paul faces, and their willingness to attack anyone who disagrees, the Paulites' campaign starts to take on a brainwashed, cultish, even vaguely sinister element (which is nothing to do with Paul himself).

And God knows I disagree with a hell of a lot of what Insider has to say, but to his credit the Paulites seem to piss him off as much as they do me.
Yeah, I'm with you and Insider on this one. Paul seems like a nice enough guy for a conservative libertarian with his heart often in the right place, but imagine if you will any of us going to a US political discussion site and posting continuously about Tony Gregory or John Gormley or Eric Byrne or Arthur Morgan and talking about their chances to be the next Taoiseach. It would be a pointless waste of time and we'd be run out of dodge fairly rapidly I'd guess.
 

youngdan

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Am I mistaken? Was it not Insider that started this thread. The vast crowds must have confused him.
 

FutureTaoiseach

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We should have a similar primary system here in Ireland to give the electorate more of a say over who represents them as opposed to the present, party HQ-dictated candidate selections. We might then have TDs that are more representative of public-opinion.
 

green

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FutureTaoiseach said:
We might then have TDs that are more representative of public-opinion.
Aren't they already? I think a more common criticism might be that TDs in Ireland are too representative of public opinion, being elected to represent a given area on gombeen matters like TV deflectors and pothole repairs.
 

FutureTaoiseach

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green said:
FutureTaoiseach said:
We might then have TDs that are more representative of public-opinion.
Aren't they already? I think a more common criticism might be that TDs in Ireland are too representative of public opinion, being elected to represent a given area on gombeen matters like TV deflectors and pothole repairs.
They are unrepresentative arguably on issues like immigration and adult prostitution being legalised.
 

Insider2007

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Eyes West's Ron Paul nonsense is hilarously off the wall. To give some background to his nuttiness:

On 29 July he started a thread Ron Paul in shock 2nd place finish. It was only when you looked at the small print (which he failed to post that you realise the false claims. It fell to Rebelman to check the facts and it turned out that the "South Carolina straw poll" actually was a Georgetown county poll, not a statewide one. Only 223 people took part, not thousands, and Paul's "shock 2nd place" involved a whopping 40 votes!!!

The results on poll actually were

Fred Thompson - 102
Ron Paul - 40
Mitt Romney - 37
Duncan Hunter - 15
Rudy Giuliani - 13
John McCain - 7
Sam Brownback - 6
Newt Gingrich - 2
Daniel Gilbert - 1

Another of his Ron Paul threads under the name Who is Ron Paul and why won't RTE tell us. On it Youngdan said that RP was leading in Iowa.

In fact, as last night showed, he only got 9% and came fifth. Yet today youngdan and eyes west now think a fifth place, with less than one in ten people in a state he was supposedly leading in actually voting for him, is a good result and makes him a viable candidate.

In reality the Iowa straw poll was ideally suited for Paul. It was among conservatives and fundamentalist christians. The leading candidate contesting, Romney, is a LDS, a church fundamentalists do not consider a Christian church, and he had flipflopped endlessly between liberal and conservative. Paul had a massive canvassing operation in place, the biggest of all the candidates, and the canvassing could be done on a one-to-one basis, stressing his conservative credentials on conservative issues such as abortion. And the candidates most viable longterm were all not taking part. It should have been like shooting fish in a barrel. Yet he still could only get a miserable 5th place, unable even to break the 10% barrier, whereas he need to be in the mid to high teens to develop a momentum. If he couldn't win or come second in something as ideal as the Iowa straw poll, when his own supporters were spinning that he was not merely getting into the mid teens but actually in the lead with people one-in-four and one-in-three voting for him, then his candidacy is dead in the water. Gullible fools like eyes west may be so blinded by the hype not to see it yet, but people who do understand US elections know that Iowa was his big chance. If he couldn't hit number 1 or number 2 there, if all he could do was 5th, half way down the pack, then his campaign is dead-in-the-water. It is that simple and everyone knows it.
 

youngdan

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Insider. I never said Paul was leadingIowa. My prediction made 3 weeks ago was that Romney was in trouble from Brownback. I said Brownback Paul and Huckabee would in that order be happy with Tancredo being hard to get a handle on. I stick with that, Romney is done. The Christian vote went to Huckabee and Brownback and the antiwar vote went to Paul. Please stop talking about the no hoper that brought vast thousands of people from all over the US to Iowa
 
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